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BRAZIL › SERIE C
12.09.2026 22:30
Referee: A. Goncalves
Maringá
Match Timeline
Santa Cruz
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
12'
Pedro Favela
Santa Cruz
🔄
46'
Alex Ruan ↔ Arilson
Santa Cruz
🔄
54'
Renato ↔ Vini Hora
Santa Cruz
🟨
55'
Paulinho
Maringá
🔄
57'
Paulinho ↔ Iago Santana
Maringá
🔄
58'
Jhow Alecxander ↔ Serginho
Maringá
🔄
67'
Eron ↔ Matheus Cadorini
Santa Cruz
🔄
67'
Everaldo ↔ Joao Pedro
Santa Cruz
🔄
73'
Pedro Favela ↔ Fabinho
Santa Cruz
🟨
74'
Arilson
Santa Cruz
🔄
74'
Ronald Camarao ↔ Guilherme Pira
Maringá
🔄
74'
Caique Calito ↔ Bruno Cheron
Maringá
🟨
81'
Wendel Lomar
Maringá
🟨
82'
Matheus Cadorini
Santa Cruz
🔄
87'
Thiago Rosa ↔ Gabriel Souza
Maringá
⚽
90'
Matheus Vinicius
Santa Cruz

Maringá vs Santa Cruz Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90.9%
Odds 1.25
BTTS
Yes
Probability 65.4%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.8%
Odds 1.70
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90.9%
1.25 ▥
BTTS Yes
65.4%
2.10 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.8%
1.70 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.11 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
10.00 ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
12.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Maringá Win 41.4%
Draw 9.1%
Santa Cruz Win 49.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Maringá1.29
Santa Cruz1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Maringá Maringá
WWDLW
33 GF / 30 GA
Santa Cruz Santa Cruz
WLDWL
21 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.65
Average Goals Scored
1
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
0.76
13
BTTS Yes
8
12
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Maringá Maringá 20 matches
Santa Cruz Santa Cruz 21 matches
Maringá Statistic Santa Cruz
9 Wins 9
6 Draws 5
5 Losses 7
33 Goals For 21
30 Goals Against 16
1.65 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 0.76
13 BTTS Yes 8
16 Over 1.5 10
12 Over 2.5 4
9 Over 3.5 2
5 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Santa Cruz. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Santa Cruz having the stronger overall control.

Maringá Analysis

Maringá approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 30 points after 19 outings. The return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 32:30, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Santa Cruz Analysis

Santa Cruz sit 8 with 29 points after 19 league matches. The record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 20:15 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Maringá won 0 times, Santa Cruz won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from Maringá's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.9%)
H2H summary: Maringá wins 0, draws 1, Santa Cruz wins 0

Standings

First stage
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 10 3 6 28:19 9 33
D D L L L
2 19 9 5 5 28:22 6 32
D D L D W
3 19 8 6 5 22:15 7 30
L D W W D
4 19 8 6 5 32:30 2 30
D D W L W
5 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
D D L W L
6 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
D W D D D
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
W L D L L
8 19 8 5 6 20:15 5 29
D D W W W
9 19 8 5 6 27:24 3 29
D W D W W
10 19 7 7 5 34:24 10 28
D L D L W
11 19 7 7 5 19:22 -3 28
W D W D W
12 19 7 6 6 19:18 1 27
L W W W D
13 19 7 5 7 21:23 -2 26
D D D W W
14 19 6 7 6 17:16 1 25
D L L W L
15 19 6 4 9 18:21 -3 22
L L L W L
16 19 6 3 10 13:25 -12 21
L L W L L
17 19 5 6 8 21:21 0 21
W L W L L
18 19 5 4 10 17:22 -5 19
D W L W W
19 19 4 5 10 14:27 -13 17
L L L L D
20 19 3 4 12 11:20 -9 13
L L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation