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FINLAND › VEIKKAUSLIIGA
12.09.2026 14:00
Wiklof Holding Arena
Referee: Antti Munukka, Finland
Mariehamn
Match Timeline
Turku PS
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
7'
Arvid Bergvik
Mariehamn
🔄
35'
Adam Larsson ↔ Thomas Klemetsen Jakobsen
Mariehamn
🔄
60'
Abdoulie Tamba ↔ Eetu Turkki
Turku PS
🔄
60'
Tomi Vakiparta ↔ Nils Veinbergs
Turku PS
🟨
67'
Ludvig Richtner
Mariehamn
🟨
69'
Charlemagne Azongnitode
Turku PS
🟨
71'
Ivan Piñol Zoroa
Turku PS
🔄
72'
Pau Juvanteny ↔ Lasse Ikonen
Turku PS
🔄
72'
Samuel Anini Jr. ↔ Joel Ahen
Turku PS
🔄
74'
Viktor Widlund ↔ Marlo Hyvonen
Mariehamn
🔄
74'
Arvid Bergvik ↔ Adam Stroud
Mariehamn
🔄
76'
Charlemagne Azongnitode ↔ Oscar Häggström
Turku PS
🟨
82'
Tuomas Koivisto
Mariehamn
🔄
83'
Jelle van der Heyden ↔ Anttoni Huttunen
Mariehamn
🟨
88'
Lasse Ikonen
Turku PS

Mariehamn vs Turku PS Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 65%
Odds 1.53
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.78
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
65%
1.53 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.78 ▥
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
2.33 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Mariehamn Win 35%
Draw 19.9%
Turku PS Win 45.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mariehamn0.91
Turku PS1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mariehamn Mariehamn
WWDLW
23 GF / 51 GA
Turku PS Turku PS
WLDWL
32 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
0.85
Average Goals Scored
1.14
1.89
Average Goals Conceded
1
12
BTTS Yes
14
12
Over 2.5
11
1.3
Shots on Goal
1.78

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mariehamn Mariehamn 27 matches
Turku PS Turku PS 28 matches
Mariehamn Statistic Turku PS
4 Wins 10
7 Draws 9
16 Losses 9
23 Goals For 32
51 Goals Against 28
0.85 Avg Goals Scored 1.14
1.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1
12 BTTS Yes 14
24 Over 1.5 18
12 Over 2.5 11
6 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 10
13 Failed To Score 7
1.3 Shots On Goal 1.78
4.13 Total Shots 5.09
2.3 Corners 2.22
23.2% Ball Possession 23.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Turku PS's more proactive style and Mariehamn's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Turku PS carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 31 points while Mariehamn sit 12 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Turku PS. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mariehamn expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Turku PS in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Turku PS having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Mariehamn Analysis

Mariehamn sit 12 with 14 points after 22 league matches. The record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 17:43 goal balance, points toward good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Huttunen (1 goals), S. Dahlström (1 goals), A. Larsson (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Amankwah (1 assists), A. Stroud (1 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Turku PS Analysis

So far, Turku PS have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 31 points from 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, while the 28:23 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Turkki (1 assists), T. Karkulowski (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Mariehamn won 0 times, Turku PS won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:10 from Mariehamn's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.1%)
Predicted formations: Mariehamn 4-2-3-1 / Turku PS 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Mariehamn wins 0, draws 3, Turku PS wins 2

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
L W D D L
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
D W W L W
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
W D D W W
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
D D W D D
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
W L L L D
6 22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L L L W L
7 22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
D L W W W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
L L D D D
9 22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
W W W L L
10 22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
W D D D L
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
D D L L L
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
L W L W W
Play-offs
Relegation Play-offs