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27.09.2026 14:15
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix
Referee: D. Palencia
Mallorca
Match Timeline
Almeria
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
26'
Miguel Calatayud García
Mallorca
🔄
32'
Antoniu Roca ↔ Josep Cerda
Mallorca
⚽
35'
Miguel De La Fuente
Almeria
🟨
37'
Javier Muñoz Jiménez
Almeria
🔄
45'
Manuel Morlanes ↔ Sergi Darder
Mallorca
🔄
62'
Adrian Liso ↔ Arnau Puigmal
Mallorca
🟨
64'
Josep Cerda
Mallorca
🔄
65'
Adrián Embarba ↔ Marcos Luna
Almeria
🟨
71'
Aboubaka Soumahoro
Mallorca
🔄
73'
Aboubaka Soumahoro ↔ Alberto Moreno
Mallorca
🔄
74'
Miguel Calatayud García ↔ Adam Buksa
Mallorca
🔄
79'
Quim junyent ↔ Nicolás Melamed Ribaudo
Almeria
🔄
79'
Daijiro Chirino ↔ Álex Sola
Almeria
🟨
83'
Andrés Fernández
Almeria
VAR
86'
Antonio José Raíllo Arenas
Mallorca
🟨
86'
Antonio José Raíllo Arenas
Mallorca
🟨
90+4'
Pablo Torre
Mallorca
🟨
90+6'
Federico Bonini
Almeria
🟨
90+8'
John Donald
Mallorca

Mallorca vs Almeria Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.1%
Odds 2.12
BTTS
No
Probability 61.4%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds 1.87
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.1%
2.12 ▥
BTTS No
61.4%
2.00 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
1.87 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
76.8%
1.83 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.25 ▥
Correct Score 1-0
-
8.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Mallorca Win 59.1%
Draw 3.6%
Almeria Win 37.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mallorca1.4
Almeria1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mallorca Mallorca
WWDLW
19 GF / 5 GA
Almeria Almeria
WLDWL
17 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1.9
Average Goals Scored
1.55
0.5
Average Goals Conceded
0.64
2
BTTS Yes
1
4
Over 2.5
3
4
Shots on Goal
3.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mallorca Mallorca 10 matches
Almeria Almeria 11 matches
Mallorca Statistic Almeria
7 Wins 7
2 Draws 0
1 Losses 4
19 Goals For 17
5 Goals Against 7
1.9 Avg Goals Scored 1.55
0.5 Avg Goals Conceded 0.64
2 BTTS Yes 1
8 Over 1.5 7
4 Over 2.5 3
1 Over 3.5 2
7 Clean Sheets 6
2 Failed To Score 4
4 Shots On Goal 3.83
11.83 Total Shots 11.83
3.5 Corners 3.67
54.7% Ball Possession 54%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Almeria. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Mallorca Analysis

Mallorca approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 13 points after 6 outings. The return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 8:2, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Fuentes (4 goals), Álex Sala (1 goals), A. Buksa (1 goals), with creative support from Álex Sala (1 assists), Arnau Tenas (1 assists), Zito Luvumbo (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Almeria Analysis

Almeria are currently 8 in the standings with 9 points from 5 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, while the 8:4 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on B. Cipenga (1 goals), Miguel de la Fuente (1 goals), Javi Muñoz (1 goals), with creative support from B. Cipenga (3 assists), Miguel de la Fuente (1 assists), Javi Muñoz (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Mallorca won 6 times, Almeria won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:13 from Mallorca's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.4%)
Predicted formations: Mallorca 4-2-3-1 / Almeria 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Mallorca wins 6, draws 2, Almeria wins 4

Standings

Segunda
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 7 0 1 18:7 11 21
W W W W W
2 8 6 2 0 15:3 12 20
D W W W W
3 8 6 0 2 13:5 8 18
W W W W W
4 8 4 2 2 14:8 6 14
D W W L W
5 8 4 2 2 8:3 5 14
D L W W D
6 8 4 2 2 12:9 3 14
L W W W D
7 8 3 4 1 8:6 2 13
D D W L W
8 8 4 1 3 8:8 0 13
W L W L L
9 8 3 2 3 13:13 0 11
W L L D L
10 8 3 2 3 8:8 0 11
L W L W D
11 8 3 2 3 12:13 -1 11
D L L W D
12 8 3 2 3 10:12 -2 11
L D L W D
13 8 3 2 3 6:11 -5 11
L L W L D
14 8 2 3 3 8:11 -3 9
D W D L W
15 8 3 0 5 13:18 -5 9
W L W L L
16 8 2 2 4 11:13 -2 8
L L L W D
17 8 2 2 4 8:10 -2 8
W L L W D
18 8 2 2 4 10:14 -4 8
L D L L W
19 8 1 4 3 11:10 1 7
W D L L L
20 8 2 1 5 12:15 -3 7
D W L L L
21 8 1 2 5 7:18 -11 5
D W D L L
22 8 0 1 7 5:15 -10 1
L L L D L
Promotion - LaLiga
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation