BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Passo das Emas
Luverdense
Match Timeline
Ceilândia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
74'
Julen
Ceilândia
89'
Danrlei Santos
Luverdense

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 76.2%
Odds 1.25
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.10
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
76.2%
1.25
BTTS Yes
75.1%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.10
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
2.64
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Luverdense Win 43%
Draw 23.8%
Ceilândia Win 33.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Luverdense1.14
Ceilândia0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Luverdense Luverdense
WWDLW
13 GF / 11 GA
Ceilândia Ceilândia
WLDWL
10 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
0.91
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
5
BTTS Yes
6
5
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Luverdense Luverdense 11 matches
Ceilândia Ceilândia 11 matches
Luverdense Statistic Ceilândia
5 Wins 3
3 Draws 3
3 Losses 5
13 Goals For 10
11 Goals Against 12
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 0.91
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
5 BTTS Yes 6
7 Over 1.5 6
5 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs Luverdense's more proactive style and Ceilândia's more cautious structure, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Luverdense hold an advantage after winning the first leg 2-1, so Ceilândia now have a 1-goal deficit to overturn. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ceilândia having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Ceilândia. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Luverdense Analysis

Luverdense enter this tie with a season profile built on 15 points from 10 matches, placing them 2 in their league. With 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses plus a goal ratio of 11:10, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on Pedro Bortoluzo (5 goals), while defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Ceilândia Analysis

Ceilândia come into this tie placed 3 in their league with 12 points from 10 matches. With 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses plus a goal ratio of 9:10, they bring poor form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on Julen (2 goals), Marquinho (2 goals), while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Luverdense won 1 times, Ceilândia won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:5 from Luverdense's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.2%)
H2H summary: Luverdense wins 1, draws 2, Ceilândia wins 1
Last matches: Luverdense
20.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
2
1
W
07.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Inhumas
4
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Brasiliense
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Primavera MG
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Gama
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Gama
0
4
L
25.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Brasiliense
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Inhumas
2
1
W
09.08.25
Ser
Luverdense
Rio Branco ES
0
3
L
02.08.25
Ser
Luverdense
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
26.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goiânia
1
0
W
19.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goianésia
1
1
D
12.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Mixto
0
0
D
05.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
0
1
L
28.06.25
Ser
Luverdense
Capital Brasilia
2
1
W
14.06.25
Ser
Luverdense
Porto Velho
0
0
D
07.06.25
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
3
1
W
Last matches: Ceilândia
20.06.26
Ser
Ceilândia
Luverdense
1
2
L
07.06.26
Ser
Ceilândia
Mixto
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Ceilândia
Goiatuba EC
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Ceilândia
União Rondonópolis
3
2
W
16.05.26
Ser
Ceilândia
Capital Brasilia
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Ceilândia
CEOV Operário
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Ceilândia
CEOV Operário
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Ceilândia
Capital Brasilia
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Ceilândia
União Rondonópolis
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Ceilândia
Goiatuba EC
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Ceilândia
Mixto
0
0
D
23.08.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Barra
0
1
L
16.08.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Barra
1
1
D
09.08.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Água Santa
1
0
W
02.08.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Água Santa
1
1
D
26.07.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Goianésia
2
0
W
20.07.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Goiânia
2
2
D
13.07.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Capital Brasilia
2
2
D
05.07.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Luverdense
1
0
W
28.06.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Mixto
2
1
W
H2H: Luverdense vs Ceilândia
28.06.26
H2H
Luverdense
Ceilândia
1
1
D
20.06.26
H2H
Ceilândia
Luverdense
1
2
W
05.07.25
H2H
Ceilândia
Luverdense
1
0
L
10.05.25
H2H
Luverdense
Ceilândia
2
2
D
Last matches: Luverdense
07.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Inhumas
4
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Gama
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Brasiliense
0
0
D
02.08.25
Ser
Luverdense
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
26.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goiânia
1
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Mixto
0
0
D
28.06.25
Ser
Luverdense
Capital Brasilia
2
1
W
07.06.25
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
3
1
W
24.05.25
Ser
Luverdense
Porto Velho
1
0
W
10.05.25
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
2
2
D
26.04.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goianésia
1
0
W
H2H at home: Luverdense
28.06.26
H2H
Luverdense
Ceilândia
1
1
D
10.05.25
H2H
Luverdense
Ceilândia
2
2
D
Last matches: Ceilândia
07.06.26
Ser
Ceilândia
Mixto
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Ceilândia
União Rondonópolis
3
2
W
16.05.26
Ser
Ceilândia
Capital Brasilia
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Ceilândia
CEOV Operário
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Ceilândia
Goiatuba EC
0
1
L
23.08.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Barra
0
1
L
02.08.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Água Santa
1
1
D
20.07.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Goiânia
2
2
D
13.07.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Capital Brasilia
2
2
D
14.06.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Aparecidense
0
2
L
31.05.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Porto Velho
2
0
W
17.05.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Mixto
1
1
D
10.05.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Luverdense
2
2
D
20.04.25
Ser
Ceilândia
Goianésia
2
1
W
H2H away: Ceilândia
28.06.26
H2H
Luverdense
Ceilândia
1
1
D
10.05.25
H2H
Luverdense
Ceilândia
2
2
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 3.30
Home 1.62
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.50
Draw 2.10
Home 2.20
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 2.40
Home 2.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 2.5 2.10
Over 3.5 3.75
Over 4.5 7.00
Over 5.5 11.00
Over 6.5 17.00
Under 0.5 8.50
Under 1.5 3.00
Under 2.5 1.70
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.84
Draw 3.50
Home 1.64
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.69
Draw 2.06
Home 2.23
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.96
Draw 2.40
Home 2.03
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 1.0 1.05
Over 1.25 1.18
Over 1.5 1.32
Over 1.75 1.41
Over 2.0 1.53
Over 2.25 1.82
Over 2.5 2.06
Over 2.75 2.37
Over 3.0 2.92
Over 3.25 3.20
Over 3.5 3.58
Over 4.0 6.20
Over 4.5 7.00
Over 5.5 11.00
Over 6.5 17.00
Under 0.5 8.45
Under 1.0 6.55
Under 1.25 3.84
Under 1.5 2.88
Under 1.75 2.52
Under 2.0 2.21
Under 2.25 1.86
Under 2.5 1.67
Under 2.75 1.51
Under 3.0 1.31
Under 3.25 1.26
Under 3.5 1.21
Under 4.0 1.06
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.80
Draw 3.45
Home 1.62
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.10
Draw 2.17
Home 2.20
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.60
Draw 2.45
Home 2.06
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 2.5 2.02
Over 3.5 3.65
Under 1.5 3.00
Under 2.5 1.65
Under 3.5 1.21

Standings

Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)