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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
10.09.2026 02:30
BMO Stadium
Referee: Ricardo Montero, Costa Rica
Los Angeles FC
Match Timeline
New York Red Bulls
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
Dylan Nealis
New York Red Bulls
⚽
21'
J. Terry
Los Angeles FC
🔄
33'
A. Mehmeti ↔ S. Kone
New York Red Bulls
🟨
42'
Kenny Nielsen
Los Angeles FC
🟨
52'
Julián Bazán
New York Red Bulls
🔄
56'
C. Cowell ↔ J. Ruvalcaba
New York Red Bulls
🔄
56'
M. Sofo ↔ J. Hall
New York Red Bulls
🔄
56'
E. M. Choupo-Moting ↔ M. Jimenez
New York Red Bulls
🔄
61'
J. Terry ↔ Igor Jesus
Los Angeles FC
🔄
61'
J. Shaffelburg ↔ A. Sieb
Los Angeles FC
🔄
66'
D. Padelford ↔ J. Marshall-Rutty
New York Red Bulls
🔄
75'
K. Nielsen ↔ R. Raposo
Los Angeles FC
🟨
87'
Ryan Raposo
Los Angeles FC
🔄
90'
D. Bouanga ↔ T. Boyd
Los Angeles FC
⚽
90'
A. Sieb · Assist: R. Hollingshead
Los Angeles FC

Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.9%
Odds 1.40
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 1.34
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.9%
1.40 ▥
BTTS Yes
63.2%
1.53 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
1.34 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.21 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.95 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Los Angeles FC Win 66.9%
Draw 4.4%
New York Red Bulls Win 28.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Los Angeles FC1.83
New York Red Bulls1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC
WWDLW
61 GF / 36 GA
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
WLDWL
45 GF / 59 GA
Key Stats
1.69
Average Goals Scored
1.55
1
Average Goals Conceded
2.03
17
BTTS Yes
20
19
Over 2.5
20
4.56
Shots on Goal
4.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 36 matches
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 29 matches
Los Angeles FC Statistic New York Red Bulls
17 Wins 9
11 Draws 6
8 Losses 14
61 Goals For 45
36 Goals Against 59
1.69 Avg Goals Scored 1.55
1 Avg Goals Conceded 2.03
17 BTTS Yes 20
26 Over 1.5 26
19 Over 2.5 20
11 Over 3.5 15
16 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 7
4.56 Shots On Goal 4.91
13.69 Total Shots 13.43
5.81 Corners 5.91
47.3% Ball Possession 53%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Los Angeles FC's more proactive style and New York Red Bulls's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring New York Red Bulls. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward New York Red Bulls having the stronger overall control. New York Red Bulls arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Los Angeles FC Analysis

Los Angeles FC arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 36 points after 23 matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 36:22 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Denis Bouanga (9 goals), David Martínez Morales (4 goals), Son Heung-min (3 goals), with creative support from Son Heung-min (6 assists), Denis Bouanga (2 assists), Tyler Boyd (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

New York Red Bulls Analysis

New York Red Bulls sit 8 with 26 points after 22 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 32:46, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Jorge Ruvalcaba (7 goals), Julian Hall (4 goals), Cade Cowell (2 goals), with creative support from Julian Hall (3 assists), Ronald Donkor (3 assists), Emil Forsberg (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Los Angeles FC won 2 times, New York Red Bulls won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:6 from Los Angeles FC's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Los Angeles FC 4-3-3 / New York Red Bulls -
Missing players: Los Angeles FC 5, New York Red Bulls 4
H2H summary: Los Angeles FC wins 2, draws 1, New York Red Bulls wins 1

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 15 5 7 60:29 31 50
L D W L W
2 27 13 8 6 48:36 12 47
W W W D W
3 27 13 8 6 50:42 8 47
W D W W W
4 27 13 6 8 49:39 10 45
W D W W D
5 27 13 5 9 34:32 2 44
L D L W D
6 28 11 8 9 43:30 13 41
L D L W D
7 27 10 8 9 35:35 0 38
W W W D D
8 27 11 3 13 38:38 0 36
L D W D L
9 28 9 9 10 37:44 -7 36
W W D L W
10 27 9 5 13 48:51 -3 32
L L L D W
11 27 9 5 13 40:44 -4 32
W L L L L
12 27 8 8 11 47:47 0 32
D D L L L
13 27 7 10 10 35:47 -12 31
D D W D D
14 27 7 8 12 40:49 -9 29
L L L L L
15 27 6 3 18 32:65 -33 21
L W L W L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)