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BRAZIL › SERIE B
15.09.2026 22:30
Estadio Vitorino Goncalves Dias
Referee: Deborah Cecilia Cruz Correia, Brazil
Londrina
Match Timeline
Ponte Preta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
22'
André Lima
Ponte Preta
⚽
23'
Herbert · Assist: Heron
Londrina
🟨
30'
Kauê Leonardo
Londrina
⚽
42'
Guilherme Dantas · Assist: Herbert
Londrina
⚽
45'
Igor Bahia
Londrina
🔄
46'
Kaue Leonardo ↔ Nino Paraiba
Londrina
🔄
55'
Miguel Morais ↔ Julio
Ponte Preta
🔄
55'
Murilo ↔ E. Ferreira
Ponte Preta
⚽
59'
Herbert
Londrina
🟨
64'
Caio Rodrigues
Londrina
🔄
65'
Tarik ↔ Lucas Marques
Londrina
🔄
65'
Joao Coni ↔ Guilherme Cachoeira
Londrina
🔄
66'
Heron ↔ Artur
Londrina
🔄
66'
David da Hora ↔ Denis
Ponte Preta
🔄
66'
Danilo Barcelos ↔ Rodrigo Souza
Ponte Preta
🔄
75'
Herbert ↔ Vitinho Mota
Londrina
⚽
81'
Vitinho Mota · Assist: Guilherme Cachoeira
Londrina
⚽
84'
Joao Vitor · Assist: Lucas Marques
Londrina

Londrina vs Ponte Preta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.4%
Odds 1.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 11.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.71
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.4%
1.28 ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
11.00 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.71 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.7%
2.00 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.95 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Londrina Win 67.4%
Draw 20.9%
Ponte Preta Win 11.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Londrina1.54
Ponte Preta0.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Londrina Londrina
WWDLW
32 GF / 39 GA
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
WLDWL
16 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
0.59
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
2.07
15
BTTS Yes
12
17
Over 2.5
12
3.78
Shots on Goal
3.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Londrina Londrina 27 matches
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 27 matches
Londrina Statistic Ponte Preta
6 Wins 2
7 Draws 4
14 Losses 21
32 Goals For 16
39 Goals Against 56
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 0.59
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 2.07
15 BTTS Yes 12
19 Over 1.5 23
17 Over 2.5 12
8 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 2
10 Failed To Score 14
3.78 Shots On Goal 3.22
13.26 Total Shots 10.56
5.3 Corners 4.56
46% Ball Possession 42.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Londrina expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Ponte Preta in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ponte Preta having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Ponte Preta. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Londrina Analysis

With 22 points from 26 games and a place of 18, Londrina still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 7 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 30:38 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Bruno Santos (4 goals), Iago Teles (2 goals), Paulinho Moccelin (2 goals), with creative support from Bruno Santos (3 assists), João Vitor (2 assists), Iago Teles (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ponte Preta Analysis

With 10 points from 26 games and a place of 20, Ponte Preta still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 20 defeats, and the 16:54 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Elvis (2 goals), Brandão (2 goals), William Pottker (2 goals), with creative support from Elvis (3 assists), Diego Tavares (3 assists), Brandão (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Londrina won 6 times, Ponte Preta won 7 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:17 from Londrina's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.36 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (88.4%)
Predicted formations: Londrina 4-1-4-1 / Ponte Preta 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Londrina wins 6, draws 1, Ponte Preta wins 7

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 37:19 18 59
W W W L L
2 32 17 7 8 44:31 13 58
D W W W D
3 32 15 11 6 37:27 10 56
W D D W D
4 31 15 9 7 52:27 25 54
W D L D W
5 31 15 8 8 33:27 6 53
W W L L L
6 32 14 10 8 40:30 10 52
L W W L W
7 32 15 6 11 49:45 4 51
W L W L W
8 32 13 11 8 44:34 10 50
W W L W L
9 32 13 9 10 44:43 1 48
L L D W D
10 32 11 14 7 32:25 7 47
D W L W D
11 32 13 6 13 32:40 -8 45
W L L W W
12 32 12 9 11 44:34 10 45
L W D W W
13 31 11 9 11 39:38 1 42
D W L D L
14 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
15 31 10 9 12 34:39 -5 39
W D W D L
16 32 10 8 14 36:38 -2 38
W L W D L
17 32 9 6 17 32:43 -11 33
W L L L D
18 32 7 7 18 40:47 -7 28
L L L L W
19 32 4 5 23 21:53 -32 17
L L L L L
20 32 3 4 25 17:68 -51 13
L L L W L
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