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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
21.09.2026 01:15
Estadio Bello Horizonte
Referee: Jose Alexander Ortiz Novoa, Colombia
Llaneros
Match Timeline
Atletico Nacional
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
15'
Y. Mena · Assist: Jhon Vasquez
Llaneros
🟨
24'
Howell Mena
Llaneros
🟨
32'
Jhon Vásquez
Llaneros
⚽
34'
F. Castaneda · Assist: J. Medranda
Llaneros
🟨
38'
Juan Castilla
Llaneros
🟨
45+2'
Neider Ospina
Llaneros
🔄
46'
N. Ospina ↔ Kelvin Osorio
Llaneros
🔄
46'
Jhon Vasquez ↔ J. Contreras
Llaneros
🔄
46'
J. Rengifo ↔ J. Rodriguez
Atletico Nacional
🔄
46'
J. Zapata ↔ J. Campuzano
Atletico Nacional
🔄
46'
X. Rios ↔ E. Cabrera
Atletico Nacional
🔄
58'
C. Arango ↔ I. Poveda
Atletico Nacional
🔄
59'
Y. Mena ↔ C. Cortes
Llaneros
🟨
71'
Frank Castañeda
Llaneros
🔄
72'
M. Casco ↔ Y. A. Perlaza Perea
Atletico Nacional
🔄
75'
F. Castaneda ↔ D. Mantilla
Llaneros
🔄
83'
L. Miranda ↔ J. Ramirez
Llaneros
🟨
85'
Yeicar Perlaza
Atletico Nacional
VAR
85'
Yeicar Perlaza
Atletico Nacional
🟨
90+5'
Jorman Campuzano
Atletico Nacional

Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 59.7%
Odds 1.72
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.99
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
59.7%
1.72 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.99 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.80 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.75 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Llaneros Win 27.6%
Draw 12.7%
Atletico Nacional Win 59.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Llaneros0.97
Atletico Nacional1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Llaneros Llaneros
WWDLW
28 GF / 33 GA
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional
WLDWL
68 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
0.97
Average Goals Scored
1.94
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
0.97
15
BTTS Yes
16
8
Over 2.5
24
3.46
Shots on Goal
6.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Llaneros Llaneros 29 matches
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 35 matches
Llaneros Statistic Atletico Nacional
7 Wins 24
12 Draws 1
10 Losses 10
28 Goals For 68
33 Goals Against 34
0.97 Avg Goals Scored 1.94
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 0.97
15 BTTS Yes 16
21 Over 1.5 27
8 Over 2.5 24
4 Over 3.5 8
8 Clean Sheets 11
8 Failed To Score 9
3.46 Shots On Goal 6.25
10.25 Total Shots 16.28
4.96 Corners 5.34
46.7% Ball Possession 57.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Atletico Nacional's more proactive style and Llaneros's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atletico Nacional. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Atletico Nacional look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Llaneros expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Atletico Nacional in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Nacional having the stronger overall control. Atletico Nacional carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 40 points while Llaneros sit 14 on 22, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Llaneros Analysis

With 22 points from 19 games and a place of 14, Llaneros still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 10 draws, and 5 defeats with a 17:20 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on N. Ospina (6 goals), J. Vásquez (6 goals), Carlos Cortés (3 goals), with creative support from N. Ospina (4 assists), L. Miranda (3 assists), J. Ramírez (3 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 7 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Nacional Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 40 points from 19 games, Atletico Nacional bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 13 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, with a 35:15 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on A. Morelos (13 goals), J. Rengifo (7 goals), A. Sarmiento (7 goals), with creative support from J. Rengifo (7 assists), A. Morelos (6 assists), A. Sarmiento (6 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Llaneros won 0 times, Atletico Nacional won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:7 from Llaneros's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.3%)
Predicted formations: Llaneros 4-1-4-1 / Atletico Nacional 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Llaneros wins 0, draws 0, Atletico Nacional wins 3

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
D W D L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L L W W L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W W D L W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
D L L W L
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
D D D D L
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W L W W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D L L W
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W W W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D W W D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L D L W D
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
W L L D L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W W W D W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L W L L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L L L D D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L W L W W
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
D W L L W
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W L L D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L L D D L
Post season qualification