URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
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Estadio Belvedere

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.9%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 65.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.9%
-
BTTS No
65.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Liverpool Montevideo Win 76.9%
Draw 14.9%
Cerro Win 8.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Liverpool Montevideo1.31
Cerro0.74
Recent Form (Last 5)
Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo
WWDLW
23 GF / 22 GA
Cerro Cerro
WLDWL
10 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
0.53
1.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.63
9
BTTS Yes
7
8
Over 2.5
6
3.5
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo 21 matches
Cerro Cerro 19 matches
Liverpool Montevideo Statistic Cerro
6 Wins 3
8 Draws 4
7 Losses 12
23 Goals For 10
22 Goals Against 31
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 0.53
1.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.63
9 BTTS Yes 7
13 Over 1.5 11
8 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 4
9 Clean Sheets 3
7 Failed To Score 9
3.5 Shots On Goal 0
11.5 Total Shots 0
4 Corners 0
56% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Liverpool Montevideo's more proactive style and Cerro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Cerro. Liverpool Montevideo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 9 with 25 points compared to Cerro in 16 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Liverpool Montevideo expected to line up in 5-2-3 and Cerro in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cerro having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Cerro arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Liverpool Montevideo Analysis

So far, Liverpool Montevideo have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 25 points from 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, while the 22:20 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on F. Martinez (7 goals), D. Romero (3 goals), F. Barcelo (3 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Cerro Analysis

With 13 points from 19 games and a place of 16, Cerro still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 10:31, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through T. Correa (5 goals), A. Pandiani (4 goals), Alejo Macelli (3 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Liverpool Montevideo won 6 times, Cerro won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:14 from Liverpool Montevideo's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (91.8%)
Predicted formations: Liverpool Montevideo 5-2-3 / Cerro 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Liverpool Montevideo wins 6, draws 5, Cerro wins 4
Last matches: Liverpool Montevideo
08.06.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
0
0
D
01.06.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Boston River
1
0
W
22.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
16.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
1
2
L
08.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Wanderers
0
1
L
02.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
3
0
W
25.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Juventud
1
1
D
19.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
3
L
13.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
2
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Progreso
3
3
D
24.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Central Espanol
3
3
D
21.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
16.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Atletico Torque
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Boston River
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
2
0
W
25.02.26
CON
Liverpool Montevideo
Independiente Medellin
0
0
D
20.02.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
1
D
18.02.26
CON
Liverpool Montevideo
Independiente Medellin
1
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
Last matches: Cerro
07.06.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
0
1
L
29.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
0
W
16.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
4
L
10.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
4
L
02.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
0
1
L
26.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
3
L
19.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
28.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
0
3
L
25.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
1
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
1
3
L
14.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
16.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Albion FC
0
3
L
09.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
0
1
L
09.11.25
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
0
0
D
H2H: Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro
20.02.26
H2H
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
24.08.25
H2H
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
L
25.05.25
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
0
0
D
22.02.25
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
2
1
W
30.11.24
H2H
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
3
W
21.07.24
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
0
1
L
03.06.24
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
0
3
L
24.11.23
H2H
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
0
1
W
08.07.23
H2H
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
L
24.04.23
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
1
D
14.02.21
H2H
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
23.08.20
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
0
W
27.11.19
H2H
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
0
2
W
13.07.19
H2H
Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo
0
2
W
05.06.19
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
2
2
D
Last matches: Liverpool Montevideo
08.06.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
02.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
3
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
3
L
05.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
24.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Central Espanol
3
3
D
16.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Atletico Torque
0
0
D
01.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
2
0
W
18.02.26
CON
Liverpool Montevideo
Independiente Medellin
1
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
16.11.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
1
2
L
01.11.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Juventud
0
1
L
26.10.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Progreso
3
1
W
11.10.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
2
2
D
27.09.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Boston River
2
1
W
13.09.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
2
2
D
30.08.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
2
0
W
16.08.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Wanderers
2
1
W
03.08.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
0
0
D
H2H at home: Liverpool Montevideo
25.05.25
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
0
0
D
22.02.25
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
2
1
W
21.07.24
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
0
1
L
03.06.24
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
0
3
L
24.04.23
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
1
D
23.08.20
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
0
W
05.06.19
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
2
2
D
Last matches: Cerro
29.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Boston River
1
4
L
10.05.26
Pri
Cerro
Club Nacional
0
4
L
26.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Central Espanol
1
3
L
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
28.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
0
3
L
21.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Penarol
1
3
L
08.03.26
Pri
Cerro
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
16.02.26
Pri
Cerro
Albion FC
0
3
L
18.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Atletico Torque
2
1
W
05.10.25
Pri
Cerro
Progreso
0
2
L
26.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Wanderers
1
0
W
14.09.25
Pri
Cerro
Danubio
1
5
L
31.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Juventud
0
1
L
17.08.25
Pri
Cerro
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
02.08.25
Pri
Cerro
CA River Plate
0
0
D
H2H away: Cerro
25.05.25
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
0
0
D
22.02.25
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
2
1
L
21.07.24
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
0
1
W
03.06.24
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
0
3
W
24.04.23
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
1
D
23.08.20
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
0
L
05.06.19
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
2
2
D