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FINLAND › VEIKKAUSLIIGA
11.07.2026 12:00
Lahden Stadion
Referee: Dennis Antamo, Finland
Lahti
Match Timeline
HJK Helsinki
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
16'
José Müller
Lahti
⚽
43'
O. Koskinen · Assist: M. Sarr
Lahti
🟨
47'
Tòfol Montiel
Lahti
🟨
48'
Nicolas Gianini Dantas
Lahti
🔄
59'
A. Cicale ↔ T. Pukki
HJK Helsinki
🔄
59'
S. Haarala ↔ A. Ring
HJK Helsinki
🔄
59'
J. Kallinen ↔ M. Kirilov
HJK Helsinki
🔄
68'
O. Koskinen ↔ E. Andersson
Lahti
🔄
71'
L. Moller ↔ L. Lappalainen
HJK Helsinki
🟨
74'
Romaric Yapi
Lahti
⚽
74'
Neemias · Assist: Y. Cassubie
Lahti
🔄
77'
Martim Augusto ↔ A. Belabid
Lahti
🔄
79'
L. Lingman ↔ P. Mentu
HJK Helsinki
🔄
84'
Neemias ↔ A. Lindholm
Lahti
🔄
84'
M. Sarr ↔ V. Vehkonen
Lahti
🔄
85'
R. Yapi ↔ J. Lehtonen
Lahti

Lahti vs HJK Helsinki Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 85.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
85.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 8.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Lahti Win 34.4%
Draw 14.9%
HJK Helsinki Win 50.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lahti1.28
HJK Helsinki1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lahti Lahti
WWDLW
23 GF / 20 GA
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki
WLDWL
32 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.28
Average Goals Scored
1.78
1.11
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
11
BTTS Yes
8
7
Over 2.5
11
2.29
Shots on Goal
1.79

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lahti Lahti 18 matches
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 18 matches
Lahti Statistic HJK Helsinki
5 Wins 8
7 Draws 4
6 Losses 6
23 Goals For 32
20 Goals Against 23
1.28 Avg Goals Scored 1.78
1.11 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
11 BTTS Yes 8
13 Over 1.5 13
7 Over 2.5 11
4 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 7
4 Failed To Score 3
2.29 Shots On Goal 1.79
7.64 Total Shots 5
3.29 Corners 1.71
35.4% Ball Possession 23.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by HJK Helsinki's more proactive style and Lahti's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. HJK Helsinki carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 22 points while Lahti sit 9 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors HJK Helsinki. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lahti expected to line up in 4-3-3 and HJK Helsinki in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward HJK Helsinki having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Lahti Analysis

So far, Lahti have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 13 points from 13 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, while the 15:15 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Tòfol Montiel (1 goals), Martim Ferreira (1 goals), with creative support from Tòfol Montiel (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

HJK Helsinki Analysis

HJK Helsinki approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 22 points after 14 outings. The return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats, together with goals at 25:17, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Brooklyn Lyons-Foster (1 goals), M. Borchers (1 goals), with creative support from T. Pukki (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lahti won 6 times, HJK Helsinki won 8 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:22 from Lahti's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.1%)
Predicted formations: Lahti 4-3-3 / HJK Helsinki 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Lahti wins 6, draws 1, HJK Helsinki wins 8

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
L W D D L
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
D W W L W
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
W D D W W
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
D D W D D
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
W L L L D
6 22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L L L W L
7
Lahti Home
22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
L D L W W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
L L L D D
9 22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
D W W W L
10 22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
W W D D D
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
W D D L L
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
D L W L W
Play-offs
Relegation Play-offs