JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Mercari Stadium
Referee: H. Kimura
Kashima
Match Timeline
FC Tokyo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
39'
Sei Muroya
FC Tokyo
🔄
62'
Leo Ceara ↔ S. Morooka
Kashima
🔄
62'
A. Cavric ↔ H. Hayashu
Kashima
🔄
66'
K. Hashimoto ↔ T. Ko
FC Tokyo
🔄
74'
G. Shibasaki ↔ K. Chinen
Kashima
🔄
74'
R. Araki ↔ R. Koike
Kashima
🔄
76'
R. Sato ↔ F. Yamada
FC Tokyo
🔄
76'
K. Endo ↔ K. Tawaratsumida
FC Tokyo
79'
S. Morooka · Assist: K. Chinen
Kashima
🔄
84'
Marcelo Ryan ↔ T. Nakagawa
FC Tokyo
🔄
84'
K. Sato ↔ L. Nozawa
FC Tokyo
🔄
87'
K. Anzai ↔ K. Tsukui
Kashima
🟨
89'
Yuma Suzuki
Kashima

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 67.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
67.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kashima Win 48.1%
Draw 11.4%
FC Tokyo Win 40.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kashima1.41
FC Tokyo1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kashima Kashima
WWDLW
32 GF / 12 GA
FC Tokyo FC Tokyo
WLDWL
32 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
1.78
0.63
Average Goals Conceded
1
8
BTTS Yes
10
6
Over 2.5
10
4.18
Shots on Goal
5.59

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kashima Kashima 19 matches
FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 18 matches
Kashima Statistic FC Tokyo
13 Wins 10
5 Draws 6
1 Losses 2
32 Goals For 32
12 Goals Against 18
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.78
0.63 Avg Goals Conceded 1
8 BTTS Yes 10
14 Over 1.5 15
6 Over 2.5 10
2 Over 3.5 4
11 Clean Sheets 6
0 Failed To Score 5
4.18 Shots On Goal 5.59
12.29 Total Shots 15.59
5.18 Corners 5.12
57.6% Ball Possession 52.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FC Tokyo. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Kashima Analysis

Kashima approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 42 points after 17 outings. With 14 wins, 0 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 30:11, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Leo Ceara (10 goals), Yuma Suzuki (6 goals), A. Cavric (2 goals), with creative support from Yuma Suzuki (5 assists), G. Shibasaki (3 assists), Leo Ceara (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 8 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

FC Tokyo Analysis

FC Tokyo come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 37 points after 17 matches. They have recorded 13 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a 32:17 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on Kein Sato (5 goals), Marcelo Ryan (5 goals), Ryunosuke Sato (5 goals), with creative support from Kein Sato (4 assists), Marcelo Ryan (4 assists), K. Hashimoto (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 7 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Kashima won 9 times, FC Tokyo won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:14 from Kashima's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.6%)
Predicted formations: Kashima 4-4-2 / FC Tokyo 4-4-2
H2H summary: Kashima wins 9, draws 3, FC Tokyo wins 3
Stats
Kashima Kashima
FC Tokyo FC Tokyo
Shots on Goal
1
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
8
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
6
1 Corner Kicks 6
11 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 0
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Goal 3
5 Shots off Goal 8
1 Blocked Shots 6
4 Shots insidebox 10
3 Shots outsidebox 7
3 Goalkeeper Saves 0
456 Total passes 460
366 Passes accurate 384
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Kashima
Formation
FC Tokyo
Y. Kajikawa
Y. Kajikawa
K. Nono
K. Nono
N. Ueda
N. Ueda
I. Sekigawa
I. Sekigawa
K. Anzai
K. Anzai
A. Cavric
A. Cavric
G. Shibasaki
G. Shibasaki
K. Misao
K. Misao
R. Araki
R. Araki
Y. Suzuki
Y. Suzuki
Leo Ceara
Leo Ceara
H. Tanaka
H. Tanaka
S. Muroya
S. Muroya
A. Scholz
A. Scholz
H. Inamura
H. Inamura
K. Hashimoto
K. Hashimoto
K. Sato
K. Sato
K. Hashimoto
K. Hashimoto
K. Tokiwa
K. Tokiwa
K. Endo
K. Endo
Marcelo Ryan
Marcelo Ryan
R. Sato
R. Sato
Kashima 4-4-2
Starting XI
29
Y. Kajikawa
G
22
K. Nono
D
55
N. Ueda
D
5
I. Sekigawa
D
2
K. Anzai
↓ 87'
D
77
A. Cavric
↓ 62'
M
10
G. Shibasaki
↓ 74'
M
6
K. Misao
M
71
R. Araki
↓ 74'
M
40
Y. Suzuki
🟨 89'
F
9
Leo Ceara
↓ 62'
F
Substitutes
21
T. Yamada
G
7
R. Ogawa
D
13
K. Chinen
🎯 79' ↑ 74'
M
14
Y. Higuchi
M
19
S. Morooka
⚽ 79' ↑ 62'
F
23
K. Tsukui
↑ 87'
D
25
R. Koike
↑ 74'
D
27
Y. Matsumura
M
24
H. Hayashu
↑ 62'
M
FC Tokyo 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
H. Tanaka
G
2
S. Muroya
🟨 39'
D
24
A. Scholz
D
17
H. Inamura
D
42
K. Hashimoto
↓ 66'
D
16
K. Sato
↓ 84'
M
18
K. Hashimoto
M
27
K. Tokiwa
M
22
K. Endo
↓ 76'
M
9
Marcelo Ryan
↓ 84'
F
23
R. Sato
↓ 76'
F
Substitutes
31
M. Kobayashi
G
3
M. Morishige
D
37
K. Koizumi
M
8
T. Ko
↑ 66'
M
71
F. Yamada
↑ 76'
M
33
K. Tawaratsumida
↑ 76'
M
39
T. Nakagawa
↑ 84'
F
15
R. Omori
D
28
L. Nozawa
↑ 84'
F
Last matches: Kashima
06.06.26
J1
Kashima
Vissel Kobe
2
0
W
30.05.26
J1
Kashima
Vissel Kobe
0
5
L
17.05.26
J1
Kashima
JEF United Chiba
2
0
W
10.05.26
J1
Kashima
Yokohama F. Marinos
1
1
D
06.05.26
J1
Kashima
Mito Hollyhock
3
0
W
03.05.26
J1
Kashima
Machida Zelvia
1
1
D
29.04.26
J1
Kashima
Tokyo Verdy
1
2
L
24.04.26
J1
Kashima
Kashiwa Reysol
1
0
W
18.04.26
J1
Kashima
Urawa
1
0
W
12.04.26
J1
Kashima
Kawasaki Frontale
2
0
W
04.04.26
J1
Kashima
Mito Hollyhock
1
1
D
22.03.26
J1
Kashima
JEF United Chiba
2
1
W
18.03.26
J1
Kashima
Machida Zelvia
3
0
W
14.03.26
J1
Kashima
Kawasaki Frontale
1
0
W
07.03.26
J1
Kashima
Tokyo Verdy
2
0
W
28.02.26
J1
Kashima
Urawa
3
2
W
21.02.26
J1
Kashima
Kashiwa Reysol
2
0
W
14.02.26
J1
Kashima
Yokohama F. Marinos
1
0
W
07.02.26
J1
Kashima
FC Tokyo
1
1
D
24.01.26
Fri
Kashima
Avispa Fukuoka
3
3
D
Last matches: FC Tokyo
06.06.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
1
3
L
30.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
2
2
D
16.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Urawa
0
0
D
10.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Tokyo Verdy
2
1
W
06.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
JEF United Chiba
0
3
L
02.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
0
W
29.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa Reysol
3
1
W
24.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Mito Hollyhock
5
2
W
11.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Yokohama F. Marinos
3
1
W
05.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Machida Zelvia
0
0
D
01.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Machida Zelvia
3
0
W
22.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Tokyo Verdy
0
0
D
18.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
JEF United Chiba
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Mito Hollyhock
1
1
D
07.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Yokohama F. Marinos
3
0
W
28.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa Reysol
0
2
L
21.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
1
W
14.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Urawa
1
1
D
07.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashima
1
1
D
18.01.26
Fri
FC Tokyo
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4
3
W
H2H: Kashima vs FC Tokyo
23.05.26
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
1
0
W
07.02.26
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kashima
1
1
D
10.08.25
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kashima
0
1
W
01.03.25
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
2
0
W
20.07.24
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
2
1
W
07.04.24
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kashima
2
0
L
16.07.23
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kashima
1
3
W
20.05.23
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
1
1
D
01.10.22
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
0
1
L
29.05.22
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kashima
3
1
L
23.10.21
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kashima
1
2
W
09.05.21
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
3
0
W
26.08.20
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kashima
1
2
W
26.07.20
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
2
2
D
14.09.19
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
2
0
W
Last matches: Kashima
06.06.26
J1
Kashima
Vissel Kobe
2
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Kashima
Mito Hollyhock
3
0
W
03.05.26
J1
Kashima
Machida Zelvia
1
1
D
18.04.26
J1
Kashima
Urawa
1
0
W
22.03.26
J1
Kashima
JEF United Chiba
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Kashima
Kawasaki Frontale
1
0
W
07.03.26
J1
Kashima
Tokyo Verdy
2
0
W
21.02.26
J1
Kashima
Kashiwa Reysol
2
0
W
14.02.26
J1
Kashima
Yokohama F. Marinos
1
0
W
20.01.26
Fri
Kashima
Fagiano Okayama
1
0
W
H2H at home: Kashima
23.05.26
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
1
0
W
01.03.25
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
2
0
W
20.07.24
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
2
1
W
20.05.23
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
1
1
D
01.10.22
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
0
1
L
09.05.21
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
3
0
W
26.07.20
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
2
2
D
14.09.19
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
2
0
W
Last matches: FC Tokyo
30.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
2
2
D
16.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Urawa
0
0
D
29.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa Reysol
3
1
W
11.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Yokohama F. Marinos
3
1
W
01.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Machida Zelvia
3
0
W
22.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Tokyo Verdy
0
0
D
18.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
JEF United Chiba
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Mito Hollyhock
1
1
D
21.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
1
W
H2H away: FC Tokyo
23.05.26
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
1
0
L
01.03.25
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
2
0
L
20.07.24
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
2
1
L
20.05.23
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
1
1
D
01.10.22
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
0
1
W
09.05.21
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
3
0
L
26.07.20
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
2
2
D
14.09.19
H2H
Kashima
FC Tokyo
2
0
L

Standings

East
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 15 0 3 31:11 20 45
?
2 18 13 0 5 32:18 14 37
?
3 18 13 0 5 28:22 6 37
?
4 18 10 0 8 26:28 -2 28
?
5 18 10 0 8 22:26 -4 28
?
6 18 7 0 11 25:22 3 25
?
7 18 6 0 12 28:31 -3 20
?
8 18 7 0 11 22:24 -2 20
?
9 18 6 0 12 23:39 -16 18
?
10 18 3 0 15 18:34 -16 12
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)