Login Register
NETHERLANDS › EERSTE DIVISIE
09.10.2026 18:00
Sportcomplex De Toekomst

Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 60.8%
Odds 2.15
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.30
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.32
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
60.8%
2.15 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.30 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.32 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Jong Ajax Win 22.4%
Draw 16.8%
VVV Venlo Win 60.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Jong Ajax1.58
VVV Venlo2.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Jong Ajax Jong Ajax
WWDLW
13 GF / 25 GA
VVV Venlo VVV Venlo
WLDWL
39 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
2.29
2.5
Average Goals Conceded
2
6
BTTS Yes
13
6
Over 2.5
14
5.67
Shots on Goal
5.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Jong Ajax Jong Ajax 10 matches
VVV Venlo VVV Venlo 17 matches
Jong Ajax Statistic VVV Venlo
2 Wins 9
2 Draws 1
6 Losses 7
13 Goals For 39
25 Goals Against 34
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 2.29
2.5 Avg Goals Conceded 2
6 BTTS Yes 13
8 Over 1.5 16
6 Over 2.5 14
4 Over 3.5 11
2 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 1
5.67 Shots On Goal 5.89
14.67 Total Shots 14.67
5 Corners 5
53.1% Ball Possession 48.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by VVV Venlo's more proactive style and Jong Ajax's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward VVV Venlo. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Jong Ajax expected to line up in 4-3-3 and VVV Venlo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward VVV Venlo having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. VVV Venlo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 18 points while Jong Ajax sit 17 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Jong Ajax Analysis

Jong Ajax approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 8 points from 9 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats with a 13:22 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on D. Pugno (5 goals), E. Ünüvar (5 goals), P. Nash (2 goals), with creative support from D. Pugno (2 assists), P. Nash (2 assists), Alejandro Monserrate (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

VVV Venlo Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 18 points from 9 games, VVV Venlo bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 6 wins, 0 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 23:14, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Dean Zandbergen (4 goals), E. Zuliani (3 goals), L. Schmidt (2 goals), with creative support from Lars de Blok (6 assists), A. Schalk (2 assists), Ismail Oulad M'Hand (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Jong Ajax won 6 times, VVV Venlo won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:16 from Jong Ajax's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.08 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.2%)
Predicted formations: Jong Ajax 4-3-3 / VVV Venlo 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Jong Ajax wins 6, draws 1, VVV Venlo wins 5

Standings

Eerste Divisie: Period 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
2 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
3 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
4 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
5 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
6 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
7 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
8 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
9 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
10 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
11 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
12 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
13 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
14 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
15 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
16 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
17 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
18 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
19 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
20 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
Promotion - Eredivisie (Promotion)