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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
11.10.2026 05:00
Fukuda Denshi Arena

JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
JEF United Chiba Win 53.6%
Draw 12.8%
V-varen Nagasaki Win 33.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
JEF United Chiba1.28
V-varen Nagasaki1.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba
WWDLW
7 GF / 18 GA
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki
WLDWL
10 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
0.88
Average Goals Scored
1.25
2.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.88
4
BTTS Yes
5
5
Over 2.5
5
3.75
Shots on Goal
3.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba 8 matches
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 8 matches
JEF United Chiba Statistic V-varen Nagasaki
1 Wins 2
1 Draws 2
6 Losses 4
7 Goals For 10
18 Goals Against 15
0.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
2.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.88
4 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 7
5 Over 2.5 5
2 Over 3.5 3
1 Clean Sheets 1
3 Failed To Score 2
3.75 Shots On Goal 3.75
9.63 Total Shots 11.13
2.38 Corners 4.13
44.8% Ball Possession 43.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors V-varen Nagasaki. JEF United Chiba have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with JEF United Chiba expected to line up in 4-4-2 and V-varen Nagasaki in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward V-varen Nagasaki having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

JEF United Chiba Analysis

With 4 points from 8 games and a place of 20, JEF United Chiba still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 7:18, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through T. Tsukui (1 goals), Matheus Índio (1 goals), K. Yamura (1 goals), with creative support from R. Ishio (1 assists), T. Taguchi (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

V-varen Nagasaki Analysis

V-varen Nagasaki approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 8 points from 8 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 10:15 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Thiago Santana (3 goals), Matheus Jesus (3 goals), K. Yasuda (1 goals), with creative support from M. Hasegawa (1 assists), H. Onaga (1 assists), H. Yamaguchi (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, JEF United Chiba won 4 times, V-varen Nagasaki won 10 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:21 from JEF United Chiba's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.2%)
Predicted formations: JEF United Chiba 4-4-2 / V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: JEF United Chiba wins 4, draws 1, V-varen Nagasaki wins 10

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 1 1 12:5 7 19
W W W W W
2 8 6 0 2 17:12 5 18
W W L L W
3 8 5 2 1 20:6 14 17
W W L W D
4 8 5 2 1 21:10 11 17
L D W W D
5 8 5 2 1 14:8 6 17
W W W D W
6 8 4 2 2 13:9 4 14
W D W D L
7 8 3 4 1 16:12 4 13
D W W L W
8 8 4 1 3 17:16 1 13
D L L L W
9 8 4 1 3 11:10 1 13
L W W W L
10 8 4 0 4 16:18 -2 12
W L W W W
11 8 3 2 3 7:12 -5 11
D L D W L
12 8 3 1 4 6:8 -2 10
W W L D L
13 8 2 3 3 11:11 0 9
L L D W D
14 8 2 2 4 11:15 -4 8
W L L D W
15 8 2 2 4 10:15 -5 8
D W L D L
16 8 1 3 4 8:14 -6 6
L L L D D
17 8 2 0 6 7:14 -7 6
L L L L W
18 8 1 1 6 9:12 -3 4
L L D L L
19 8 0 4 4 4:12 -8 4
L D D L L
20 8 1 1 6 7:18 -11 4
L D W L L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League