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BRAZIL › SERIE A
07.10.2026 22:30
Estádio Beira Rio
Referee: Felipe Fernandes de Lima

Internacional vs Corinthians Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 65.1%
Odds 1.62
BTTS
Yes
Probability 69.6%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 60.1%
Odds 2.29
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
65.1%
1.62 ▥
BTTS Yes
69.6%
1.91 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
60.1%
2.29 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.1%
1.25 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
12.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Internacional Win 34.9%
Draw 20.9%
Corinthians Win 44.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Internacional1.04
Corinthians1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Internacional Internacional
WWDLW
30 GF / 36 GA
Corinthians Corinthians
WLDWL
40 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1.03
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1
16
BTTS Yes
19
11
Over 2.5
12
4.29
Shots on Goal
3.79

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Internacional Internacional 28 matches
Corinthians Corinthians 39 matches
Internacional Statistic Corinthians
6 Wins 12
10 Draws 13
12 Losses 14
30 Goals For 40
36 Goals Against 39
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1
16 BTTS Yes 19
20 Over 1.5 27
11 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 15
9 Failed To Score 10
4.29 Shots On Goal 3.79
14.64 Total Shots 11.89
6.07 Corners 4.63
48.2% Ball Possession 54.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Internacional expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Corinthians in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Corinthians having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Corinthians. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Internacional Analysis

Internacional approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 28 points from 28 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 10 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 30:36 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Carbonero (7 goals), A. Bernabéi (4 goals), Alan Patrick (4 goals), with creative support from J. Carbonero (4 assists), Alerrandro (3 assists), Vitinho (3 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Calebe, S. Rochet, B. Arhin unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Corinthians Analysis

Corinthians sit 14 with 32 points after 28 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 29:32, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through R. Garro (3 goals), Yuri Alberto (3 goals), Andre (3 goals), with creative support from R. Garro (6 assists), Yuri Alberto (2 assists), Andre (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without Andre Ramalho, Z. Labyad, Kayke, the biggest concern is that one of those absentees also contributes heavily in both finishing and chance creation.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Internacional won 4 times, Corinthians won 3 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:20 from Internacional's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.1%)
Predicted formations: Internacional 4-1-4-1 / Corinthians 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Internacional 4, Corinthians 3
H2H summary: Internacional wins 4, draws 8, Corinthians wins 3

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 28 12 7 9 37:32 5 43
W D W L W
8 28 11 8 9 43:41 2 41
W W W W W
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L W L W W
11 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L L D L L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B