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ECUADOR › LIGA PRO
20.07.2026 00:15
Estadio Banco Guayaquil
Referee: G. Gonzalez
Independiente del Valle
Match Timeline
Emelec
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
23'
R. Caicedo
Independiente del Valle
⚽
29'
M. Perello
Independiente del Valle
⚽
31'
E. Pata · Assist: H. Quintana
Independiente del Valle
🔄
46'
E. Pata ↔ A. Rodriguez
Independiente del Valle
🔄
46'
R. Schunke ↔ M. Carabajal
Independiente del Valle
🔄
46'
V. Griffith ↔ L. Fragozo
Emelec
🔄
46'
G. Napoli ↔ F. Pizzini
Emelec
⚽
48'
L. Klimowicz
Emelec
🟨
57'
J. Espinoza
Independiente del Valle
🟨
57'
L. Fragozo
Emelec
🟨
57'
M. Perello
Independiente del Valle
🔄
76'
H. Quintana ↔ J. Sornoza
Independiente del Valle
🔄
76'
M. Perello ↔ E. Quintero
Independiente del Valle
🔄
76'
A. Mina ↔ J. Neris
Emelec
🔄
76'
S. Quintero ↔ J. Cevallos
Emelec
⚽
77'
A. Rodriguez · Assist: E. Quintero
Independiente del Valle
⚽
80'
J. Angulo · Assist: D. Guagua
Independiente del Valle
🔄
81'
J. Angulo ↔ Y. Vasquez
Independiente del Valle
🔄
82'
L. Klimowicz ↔ B. Tobar
Emelec
⚽
90'
Y. Vasquez · Assist: J. Sornoza
Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle vs Emelec Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Independiente del Valle Win 77%
Draw 3.9%
Emelec Win 19%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente del Valle1.63
Emelec0.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
WWDLW
55 GF / 27 GA
Emelec Emelec
WLDWL
16 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
2.12
Average Goals Scored
0.84
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
0.89
13
BTTS Yes
6
16
Over 2.5
2
6.28
Shots on Goal
3.05

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 26 matches
Emelec Emelec 19 matches
Independiente del Valle Statistic Emelec
19 Wins 7
2 Draws 6
5 Losses 6
55 Goals For 16
27 Goals Against 17
2.12 Avg Goals Scored 0.84
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 0.89
13 BTTS Yes 6
22 Over 1.5 13
16 Over 2.5 2
11 Over 3.5 1
10 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 7
6.28 Shots On Goal 3.05
18.72 Total Shots 10.37
6.52 Corners 4.37
56.4% Ball Possession 45.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Independiente del Valle's more proactive style and Emelec's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Independiente del Valle come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Independiente del Valle expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Emelec in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Emelec having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Emelec. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Independiente del Valle arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 43 points compared to Emelec in 12 on 21, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Independiente del Valle come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 43 points after 18 matches. With 14 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 40:19, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Emerson Pata (6 goals), D. Reasco (5 goals), C. González (5 goals), with creative support from D. Reasco (3 assists), J. Sornoza (3 assists), A. Rodríguez (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Emelec Analysis

So far, Emelec have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 21 points from 18 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 14:17 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Luca Klimowicz (4 goals), Romario Caicedo (2 goals), Ignacio Guerrico (1 goals), with creative support from Angelo Mina (2 assists), Francisco Pizzini (2 assists), Luca Klimowicz (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Independiente del Valle won 9 times, Emelec won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:16 from Independiente del Valle's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.1%)
Predicted formations: Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1 / Emelec 4-4-2
H2H summary: Independiente del Valle wins 9, draws 3, Emelec wins 3

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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