BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Antonio Moreno de Mello
Iguatu
Match Timeline
Tuna Luso
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
24'
Matheus Lima
Iguatu
89'
Warian Ameixa
Tuna Luso

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Iguatu Win 75%
Draw 5.5%
Tuna Luso Win 19.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Iguatu1.56
Tuna Luso1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Iguatu Iguatu
WWDLW
16 GF / 8 GA
Tuna Luso Tuna Luso
WLDWL
15 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.36
0.73
Average Goals Conceded
1.73
6
BTTS Yes
6
4
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Iguatu Iguatu 11 matches
Tuna Luso Tuna Luso 11 matches
Iguatu Statistic Tuna Luso
6 Wins 3
5 Draws 4
0 Losses 4
16 Goals For 15
8 Goals Against 19
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
0.73 Avg Goals Conceded 1.73
6 BTTS Yes 6
7 Over 1.5 9
4 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together Iguatu's more proactive style and Tuna Luso's more cautious structure, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Tuna Luso having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Tuna Luso. Iguatu arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 20 points compared to Tuna Luso in 4 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Iguatu Analysis

Iguatu come into this tie placed 1 in their league with 20 points from 10 matches. The return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 14:7 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Matheus Lima (7 goals), J. Klaivert (3 goals), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Tuna Luso Analysis

Tuna Luso enter this tie with a season profile built on 13 points from 10 matches, placing them 4 in their league. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats with goals at 14:17 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on J. Alves (4 goals), Franklin Douglas (3 goals), Daniel GTA (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, which supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Iguatu won 1 times, Tuna Luso won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:2 from Iguatu's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
H2H summary: Iguatu wins 1, draws 1, Tuna Luso wins 0
Last matches: Iguatu
25.07.26
Ser
Iguatu
Nacional AM
1
1
D
18.07.26
Ser
Iguatu
Nacional AM
1
1
D
12.07.26
Ser
Iguatu
Maguary PE
2
1
W
04.07.26
Ser
Iguatu
Maguary PE
3
2
W
21.06.26
Ser
Iguatu
Tuna Luso
2
1
W
07.06.26
Ser
Iguatu
Sampaio Correa
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
Parnahyba
2
2
D
23.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
IAPE
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
Maracanã
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
Moto Club
3
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
Moto Club
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Iguatu
Maracanã
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Iguatu
IAPE
3
2
W
12.04.26
Ser
Iguatu
Parnahyba
2
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Iguatu
Sampaio Correa
0
0
D
26.07.25
Ser
Iguatu
Sampaio Correa
1
1
D
19.07.25
Ser
Iguatu
Imperatriz
1
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Iguatu
Maracanã
2
1
W
06.07.25
Ser
Iguatu
Parnahyba
0
2
L
28.06.25
Ser
Iguatu
Altos
1
2
L
Last matches: Tuna Luso
21.06.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Iguatu
1
2
L
06.06.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Imperatriz
0
4
L
31.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Trem
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Oratório
3
3
D
17.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Águia de Marabá
2
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Tocantinópolis
2
3
L
02.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Tocantinópolis
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Águia de Marabá
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Oratório
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Trem
3
3
D
05.04.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Imperatriz
0
0
D
10.08.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Maranhão
2
0
W
02.08.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Maranhão
1
4
L
27.07.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Humaitá
2
0
W
19.07.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Trem
1
2
L
13.07.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Manauara
2
1
W
06.07.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Manaus FC
1
2
L
29.06.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Águia de Marabá
2
0
W
15.06.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Independência
3
0
W
07.06.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
GAS
0
0
D
H2H: Iguatu vs Tuna Luso
27.06.26
H2H
Iguatu
Tuna Luso
1
1
D
21.06.26
H2H
Tuna Luso
Iguatu
1
2
W
Last matches: Iguatu
25.07.26
Ser
Iguatu
Nacional AM
1
1
D
12.07.26
Ser
Iguatu
Maguary PE
2
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
Parnahyba
2
2
D
10.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
Moto Club
3
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Iguatu
Maracanã
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Iguatu
IAPE
3
2
W
04.04.26
Ser
Iguatu
Sampaio Correa
0
0
D
19.07.25
Ser
Iguatu
Imperatriz
1
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Iguatu
Maracanã
2
1
W
13.06.25
Ser
Iguatu
Tocantinópolis
0
1
L
30.05.25
Ser
Iguatu
Maranhão
1
0
W
17.05.25
Ser
Iguatu
Altos
2
3
L
10.05.25
Ser
Iguatu
Parnahyba
3
0
W
19.04.25
Ser
Iguatu
Sampaio Correa
1
0
W
H2H at home: Iguatu
27.06.26
H2H
Iguatu
Tuna Luso
1
1
D
Last matches: Tuna Luso
06.06.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Imperatriz
0
4
L
24.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Oratório
3
3
D
02.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Tocantinópolis
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Águia de Marabá
0
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Trem
3
3
D
02.08.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Maranhão
1
4
L
19.07.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Trem
1
2
L
06.07.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Manaus FC
1
2
L
07.06.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
GAS
0
0
D
28.05.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Independência
0
0
D
17.05.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Águia de Marabá
0
0
D
03.05.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Manauara
0
3
L
19.04.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Humaitá
3
0
W
H2H away: Tuna Luso
27.06.26
H2H
Iguatu
Tuna Luso
1
1
D