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BRAZIL › SERIE D
25.07.2026 19:00
Penalties 4-5
1 - 1
Estadio Antonio Moreno de Mello
Iguatu
Match Timeline
Nacional AM
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
44'
Wendel
Nacional AM
⚽
45+8'
Otacilio Marcos
Iguatu
⚽
120+5'
Mateus Muller
Nacional AM
⚽
120+5'
Pedrinho
Iguatu
⚽
120+4'
Ryan Luka
Nacional AM
⚽
120+4'
Marquinhos
Iguatu
⚽
120+3'
Icaro Alves
Nacional AM
⚽
120+3'
Danilo Nazare
Iguatu
⚽
120+2'
M. Fernandes
Iguatu
⚽
120+1'
Renanzinho
Nacional AM
⚽
120+1'
Otacilio Marcos
Iguatu
⚽
120+2'
Caio Mancha
Nacional AM

Iguatu vs Nacional AM Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 45.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
45.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
63.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Iguatu Win 45.1%
Draw 17%
Nacional AM Win 38%
Expected Goals (xG)
Iguatu1.21
Nacional AM1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Iguatu Iguatu
WWDLW
23 GF / 13 GA
Nacional AM Nacional AM
WLDWL
18 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.2
0.87
Average Goals Conceded
0.73
10
BTTS Yes
5
6
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Iguatu Iguatu 15 matches
Nacional AM Nacional AM 15 matches
Iguatu Statistic Nacional AM
8 Wins 8
7 Draws 4
0 Losses 3
23 Goals For 18
13 Goals Against 11
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
0.87 Avg Goals Conceded 0.73
10 BTTS Yes 5
11 Over 1.5 7
6 Over 2.5 3
4 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 8
2 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The first leg ended level at 1-1, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nacional AM having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Nacional AM.

Iguatu Analysis

Iguatu come into this tie placed 1 in their league with 20 points from 10 matches. With 5 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses plus a goal ratio of 14:7, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on their main attacking players, while defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Nacional AM Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Nacional AM arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 20 points after 10 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats with goals at 15:9 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Iguatu won 0 times, Nacional AM won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:2 from Iguatu's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83%)
H2H summary: Iguatu wins 0, draws 2, Nacional AM wins 0

Standings

Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)