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TURKEY › SüPER LIG
09.10.2026 17:00
Rams Park

Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 51.4%
Odds 1.24
BTTS
Yes
Probability 81.4%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 76.1%
Odds 1.45
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
51.4%
1.24 ▥
BTTS Yes
81.4%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
76.1%
1.45 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.73 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Galatasaray Win 51.4%
Draw 15.8%
Kasımpaşa Win 32.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Galatasaray1.43
Kasımpaşa1.77
Recent Form (Last 5)
Galatasaray Galatasaray
WWDLW
26 GF / 27 GA
Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa
WLDWL
22 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.57
2.08
Average Goals Conceded
0.57
8
BTTS Yes
7
11
Over 2.5
5
7
Shots on Goal
3.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Galatasaray Galatasaray 13 matches
Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 14 matches
Galatasaray Statistic Kasımpaşa
5 Wins 8
3 Draws 6
5 Losses 0
26 Goals For 22
27 Goals Against 8
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
2.08 Avg Goals Conceded 0.57
8 BTTS Yes 7
12 Over 1.5 11
11 Over 2.5 5
9 Over 3.5 1
2 Clean Sheets 7
3 Failed To Score 1
7 Shots On Goal 3.33
20.86 Total Shots 11.83
6.57 Corners 3.83
58.7% Ball Possession 41.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Galatasaray appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Kasımpaşa. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Kasımpaşa. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Galatasaray come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Galatasaray Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 13 points from 6 games, Galatasaray bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, with a 13:10 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on V. Osimhen (6 goals), Gabriel Sara (2 goals), Lucas Torreira (1 goals), with creative support from V. Osimhen (2 assists), Gabriel Sara (2 assists), Lucas Torreira (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with L. Ugochukwu, G. Guvenc, W. Singo unavailable.

Kasımpaşa Analysis

From their first 6 matches, Kasımpaşa have collected 10 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 7:5 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Adrian Benedyczak (4 goals), Güven Yalçın (2 goals), Fousseni Diabaté (1 goals), with creative support from Cláudio Winck (2 assists), Adrian Benedyczak (1 assists), Elson Mendes (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with K. Corekci, M. Ouanes unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Galatasaray won 8 times, Kasımpaşa won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 30:23 from Galatasaray's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.79 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.2%)
Predicted formations: Galatasaray 4-2-3-1 / Kasımpaşa 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Galatasaray 5, Kasımpaşa 2
H2H summary: Galatasaray wins 8, draws 3, Kasımpaşa wins 3

Standings

Süper Lig
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 1 1 15:7 8 13
W W D W L
2 6 4 1 1 13:10 3 13
L W W W W
3 6 4 0 2 14:7 7 12
L W W W L
4 6 4 0 2 7:4 3 12
W L W W W
5 6 3 2 1 8:6 2 11
W D W L W
6 6 3 1 2 16:6 10 10
W D L W W
7 6 3 1 2 13:5 8 10
W L W L W
8 6 2 4 0 7:5 2 10
D W D D W
9 6 3 1 2 7:6 1 10
D W L W L
10 6 2 2 2 7:7 0 8
L D W L W
11 6 2 1 3 13:12 1 7
L W W L L
12 6 2 1 3 10:11 -1 7
W L L D L
13 6 2 1 3 5:13 -8 7
L L L D W
14 6 2 1 3 3:11 -8 7
W L W D L
15 6 1 1 4 4:8 -4 4
D W L L L
16 6 1 1 4 6:12 -6 4
L L L L W
17 6 0 3 3 11:15 -4 3
D D L L L
18 6 1 0 5 2:16 -14 3
L L L W L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - 1. Lig