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BRAZIL › SERIE B
19.08.2026 22:30
Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo
Referee: F. Mendes
Fortaleza EC
Match Timeline
São Bernardo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
32'
Lucas Sasha
Fortaleza EC
⚽
43'
Pedrinho · Assist: Dudu Miraima
São Bernardo
🔄
59'
Para ↔ Hugo Sanches
São Bernardo
🔄
59'
Hyoran ↔ Pedro Vitor
São Bernardo
🔄
64'
Pedro Henrique ↔ Lucas Crispim
Fortaleza EC
🔄
64'
Vitinho ↔ Rodrigo
Fortaleza EC
🔄
64'
Mauricio Junior ↔ Luiz Fernando
Fortaleza EC
🔄
64'
Dudu Miraima ↔ Lucas Lima
São Bernardo
🟨
68'
Pierre
Fortaleza EC
🔄
75'
J. B. Miritello ↔ Welliton
Fortaleza EC
🔄
81'
Pierre ↔ Ryan
Fortaleza EC
🔄
81'
Felipe Garcia ↔ Leo Jaba
São Bernardo
🔄
81'
Pedrinho ↔ Daniel Amorim
São Bernardo

Fortaleza EC vs São Bernardo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Fortaleza EC Win 63.9%
Draw 4.4%
São Bernardo Win 31.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fortaleza EC1.11
São Bernardo1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WWDLW
24 GF / 20 GA
São Bernardo São Bernardo
WLDWL
31 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
1.41
0.91
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
8
BTTS Yes
13
9
Over 2.5
11
4.05
Shots on Goal
4.36

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 22 matches
São Bernardo São Bernardo 22 matches
Fortaleza EC Statistic São Bernardo
10 Wins 8
6 Draws 6
6 Losses 8
24 Goals For 31
20 Goals Against 25
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
0.91 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
8 BTTS Yes 13
12 Over 1.5 15
9 Over 2.5 11
3 Over 3.5 5
10 Clean Sheets 5
8 Failed To Score 5
4.05 Shots On Goal 4.36
13.36 Total Shots 11.73
5.41 Corners 4.55
46.6% Ball Possession 48.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fortaleza EC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and São Bernardo in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward São Bernardo having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring São Bernardo. Fortaleza EC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 35 points compared to São Bernardo in 11 on 30, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

Fortaleza EC arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 35 points after 21 matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 24:20 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Vitinho (4 goals), Juan Miritello (3 goals), Maílton (2 goals), with creative support from Maílton (1 assists), Emanuel Brítez (1 assists), Maurício Júnior (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 8 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

São Bernardo Analysis

São Bernardo sit 11 with 30 points after 21 league matches. The record of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 31:24 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Pedro Vitor (3 goals), Rodrigo Ferreira (3 goals), Dudu Miraíma (2 goals), with creative support from Romisson (4 assists), Dudu Miraíma (3 assists), Pedro Vitor (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Fortaleza EC won 1 times, São Bernardo won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Fortaleza EC's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Fortaleza EC 4-2-3-1 / São Bernardo 4-3-3
H2H summary: Fortaleza EC wins 1, draws 1, São Bernardo wins 0

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 18 7 8 46:31 15 61
W D W W W
2 33 17 9 7 39:21 18 60
D W W W L
3 32 16 9 7 54:27 27 57
W W D L D
4 32 15 11 6 37:27 10 56
W D D W D
5 32 15 8 9 33:28 5 53
L W W L L
6 33 14 11 8 41:31 10 53
D L W W L
7 32 15 6 11 49:45 4 51
W L W L W
8 33 13 12 8 45:35 10 51
D W W L W
9 33 14 6 13 34:40 -6 48
W W L L W
10 33 13 9 11 44:45 -1 48
L L L D W
11 33 11 14 8 32:26 6 47
L D W L W
12 33 12 10 11 46:36 10 46
D L W D W
13 33 11 9 13 39:42 -3 42
L L D W L
14 32 11 9 12 35:39 -4 42
W W D W D
15 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
16 32 10 8 14 36:38 -2 38
W L W D L
17 33 10 6 17 33:43 -10 36
W W L L L
18 32 7 7 18 40:47 -7 28
L L L L W
19 32 4 5 23 21:53 -32 17
L L L L L
20 32 3 4 25 17:68 -51 13
L L L W L
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