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BRAZIL › SERIE B
03.07.2026 00:00
Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo
Referee: Felipe Fernandes de Lima, Brazil
Fortaleza EC
Match Timeline
Ponte Preta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
43'
Luiz Fernando
Fortaleza EC
🟨
43'
Sergio Palacios
Ponte Preta
🟨
45'
Daniel Baianinho
Ponte Preta
🔄
46'
Baianinho ↔ Diego Tavares
Ponte Preta
🟨
54'
Pierre
Fortaleza EC
⚽
60'
J. B. Miritello · Assist: Luiz Fernando
Fortaleza EC
🔄
64'
Mauricio Junior ↔ Lucca Prior
Fortaleza EC
🔄
64'
Pierre ↔ Lucas Sasha
Fortaleza EC
🔄
64'
Diego Porfirio ↔ David da Hora
Ponte Preta
🟨
66'
Lucas Gazal
Fortaleza EC
🔄
76'
Kevyson ↔ Juan Rodrigues
Ponte Preta
🔄
78'
Welliton ↔ Paulo Baya
Fortaleza EC
🔄
79'
Rodriguinho ↔ Mailton
Fortaleza EC
🔄
82'
Brandao ↔ Rodriguinho
Ponte Preta
🔄
83'
Marcio Silva ↔ Jonathan Cafu
Ponte Preta
⚽
84'
Mailton · Assist: Lucas Sasha
Fortaleza EC
🔄
85'
Rodrigo ↔ Ryan
Fortaleza EC
🟨
89'
Diego Tavares
Ponte Preta
🟨
90+4'
Lucca Prior
Fortaleza EC

Fortaleza EC vs Ponte Preta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.2%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Fortaleza EC Win 82.9%
Draw 4.6%
Ponte Preta Win 12.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fortaleza EC1.49
Ponte Preta0.83
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WWDLW
18 GF / 16 GA
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
WLDWL
10 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
0.67
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.93
6
BTTS Yes
7
8
Over 2.5
8
4.33
Shots on Goal
3.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 15 matches
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 15 matches
Fortaleza EC Statistic Ponte Preta
7 Wins 2
4 Draws 2
4 Losses 11
18 Goals For 10
16 Goals Against 29
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 0.67
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.93
6 BTTS Yes 7
9 Over 1.5 11
8 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 2
6 Failed To Score 7
4.33 Shots On Goal 3.2
13.73 Total Shots 10.53
4.67 Corners 5.4
44.2% Ball Possession 43.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Fortaleza EC's more proactive style and Ponte Preta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Ponte Preta arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fortaleza EC expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Ponte Preta in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ponte Preta having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Ponte Preta. Fortaleza EC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 22 points compared to Ponte Preta in 19 on 8, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

From their first 14 matches, Fortaleza EC have collected 22 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 16:15 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Juan Miritello (3 goals), Vitinho (3 goals), Luiz Fernando (2 goals), with creative support from Maílton (1 assists), Emanuel Brítez (1 assists), Maurício Júnior (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Ponte Preta Analysis

Ponte Preta approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 8 points from 14 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 10 defeats with a 10:27 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on William Pottker (2 goals), Diego Tavares (1 goals), Elvis (1 goals), with creative support from Diego Tavares (3 assists), Elvis (1 assists), Luis Phelipe (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Fortaleza EC won 1 times, Ponte Preta won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:3 from Fortaleza EC's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Fortaleza EC 3-4-2-1 / Ponte Preta 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Fortaleza EC wins 1, draws 1, Ponte Preta wins 1

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 37:19 18 59
W W W L L
2 32 17 7 8 44:31 13 58
D W W W D
3 32 16 9 7 54:27 27 57
W W D L D
4 32 15 11 6 37:27 10 56
W D D W D
5 32 15 8 9 33:28 5 53
L W W L L
6 32 14 10 8 40:30 10 52
L W W L W
7 32 15 6 11 49:45 4 51
W L W L W
8 32 13 11 8 44:34 10 50
W W L W L
9 32 13 9 10 44:43 1 48
L L D W D
10 32 11 14 7 32:25 7 47
D W L W D
11 32 13 6 13 32:40 -8 45
W L L W W
12 32 12 9 11 44:34 10 45
L W D W W
13 32 11 9 12 39:40 -1 42
L D W L D
14 32 11 9 12 35:39 -4 42
W W D W D
15 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
16 32 10 8 14 36:38 -2 38
W L W D L
17 32 9 6 17 32:43 -11 33
W L L L D
18 32 7 7 18 40:47 -7 28
L L L L W
19 32 4 5 23 21:53 -32 17
L L L L L
20 32 3 4 25 17:68 -51 13
L L L W L
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