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ESTONIA › MEISTRILIIGA
20.09.2026 16:00
A. Le Coq Arena
Referee: K. Koppel
Flora Tallinn
Match Timeline
Vaprus
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
55'
M. Limberg · Assist: S. Viidas
Vaprus
⚽
60'
E. Sorga
Flora Tallinn
🔄
60'
D. Kuraksin ↔ R. Alliku
Flora Tallinn
🔄
60'
M. Kukkonen ↔ D. Zotov
Flora Tallinn
⚽
62'
E. Sorga · Assist: D. Zotov
Flora Tallinn
⚽
75'
S. Kapper · Assist: M. Limberg
Vaprus
🔄
76'
S. Kapper ↔ V. Vallik
Vaprus
🔄
76'
S. Viidas ↔ J. Poder
Vaprus
🔄
80'
E. Sorga ↔ T. Usta
Flora Tallinn
🔄
86'
M. Villota ↔ R. Orm
Vaprus
🔄
90+2'
K. Aloe ↔ U. Nomm
Vaprus
⚽
90'
S. Alamaa
Flora Tallinn

Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 83.8%
Odds 1.44
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds 1.45
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
83.8%
1.44 ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
1.45 ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
6.40 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.10 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Flora Tallinn Win 83.8%
Draw 8.1%
Vaprus Win 8.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Flora Tallinn1.83
Vaprus1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn
WWDLW
72 GF / 56 GA
Vaprus Vaprus
WLDWL
56 GF / 66 GA
Key Stats
1.76
Average Goals Scored
1.65
1.37
Average Goals Conceded
1.94
20
BTTS Yes
21
30
Over 2.5
23
1.33
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn 41 matches
Vaprus Vaprus 34 matches
Flora Tallinn Statistic Vaprus
22 Wins 12
3 Draws 5
16 Losses 17
72 Goals For 56
56 Goals Against 66
1.76 Avg Goals Scored 1.65
1.37 Avg Goals Conceded 1.94
20 BTTS Yes 21
33 Over 1.5 29
30 Over 2.5 23
17 Over 3.5 16
13 Clean Sheets 7
8 Failed To Score 8
1.33 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
2.17 Corners 0
16.3% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Flora Tallinn's more proactive style and Vaprus's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Flora Tallinn arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 52 points compared to Vaprus in 6 on 34, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Vaprus having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Vaprus. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Flora Tallinn Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 52 points from 28 games, Flora Tallinn bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 17 wins, 1 draws, and 10 defeats, together with goals at 56:37, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, they have managed 8 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Vaprus Analysis

So far, Vaprus have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 34 points from 27 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 4 draws, and 13 losses, while the 37:52 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses fits a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Flora Tallinn won 11 times, Vaprus won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:7 from Flora Tallinn's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (91.9%)
Predicted formations: Flora Tallinn - / Vaprus 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Flora Tallinn wins 11, draws 2, Vaprus wins 2

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 22 6 1 81:21 60 72
D W W W W
2 29 18 1 10 59:39 20 55
W W D W W
3 29 15 6 8 48:36 12 51
W W L W L
4 29 15 5 9 52:27 25 50
W W L L L
5 29 14 2 13 37:47 -10 44
L L W L W
6 29 11 2 16 40:47 -7 35
D W L L W
7 29 10 4 15 39:57 -18 34
L L L W W
8 29 8 5 16 31:49 -18 29
D L L W D
9 29 9 1 19 47:68 -21 28
L L W L L
10 29 5 4 20 22:65 -43 19
D L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga