ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
A. Le Coq Arena
Referee: K. Tohver
Flora Tallinn
Match Timeline
Trans Narva
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
13'
R. Valdmets · Assist: N. Kalmokov
Flora Tallinn
18'
R. Sappinen · Assist: S. Zenjov
Flora Tallinn
🟨
20'
A. Kaares
Flora Tallinn
🟨
27'
N. Kalmokov
Flora Tallinn
🔄
46'
S. Burjanadze ↔ H. Rowe
Trans Narva
🔄
48'
V. Kreida ↔ T. Teevali
Flora Tallinn
🟨
57'
A. Kollo
Flora Tallinn
🔄
58'
J. Doke ↔ S. Kondrattsev
Trans Narva
🔄
58'
A. Skinjov ↔ J. Imeh
Trans Narva
🟨
63'
A. Gero
Trans Narva
🔄
64'
T. Varjund ↔ D. Kuraksin
Flora Tallinn
🔄
64'
A. Kaares ↔ T. Usta
Flora Tallinn
🟨
66'
C. Campagna
Trans Narva
67'
S. Zenjov · Assist: T. Usta
Flora Tallinn
71'
S. Kondrattsev
Flora Tallinn
🟨
74'
T. Usta
Flora Tallinn
🔄
76'
N. Kalmokov ↔ M. Jekimov
Flora Tallinn
🔄
76'
S. Zenjov ↔ S. Alamaa
Flora Tallinn
🔄
76'
S. Agaptsev ↔ V. Kudriashov
Trans Narva
🔄
76'
A. Gero ↔ N. Baljabkin
Trans Narva
79'
R. Sappinen · Assist: R. Valdmets
Flora Tallinn
80'
S. Alamaa · Assist: D. Kuraksin
Flora Tallinn
🟨
87'
C. Campagna
Trans Narva
🟥
87'
C. Campagna
Trans Narva

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 81.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
81.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.1%
-
Probability Distribution
Flora Tallinn Win 70.6%
Draw 10.7%
Trans Narva Win 18.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Flora Tallinn1.54
Trans Narva1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn
WWDLW
19 GF / 18 GA
Trans Narva Trans Narva
WLDWL
21 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.4
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.8
4
BTTS Yes
11
8
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn 14 matches
Trans Narva Trans Narva 15 matches
Flora Tallinn Statistic Trans Narva
7 Wins 3
1 Draws 4
6 Losses 8
19 Goals For 21
18 Goals Against 27
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.8
4 BTTS Yes 11
10 Over 1.5 13
8 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Flora Tallinn's more proactive style and Trans Narva's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Trans Narva having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Trans Narva. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Flora Tallinn Analysis

With 9 points from 7 games and a place of 5, Flora Tallinn still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 8:7 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on I. Antonov (2 goals), R. Sappinen (2 goals), S. Alamaa (2 goals), with creative support from R. Sappinen (3 assists), S. Alamaa (1 assists), S. Zenjov (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Trans Narva Analysis

Trans Narva sit 9 with 6 points after 7 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 0 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 8:11 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Gero (4 goals), S. Agaptsev (2 goals), C. Campagna (1 goals), with creative support from A. Ivanyushin (2 assists), D. Poliakov (2 assists), S. Agaptsev (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Flora Tallinn won 9 times, Trans Narva won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 37:19 from Flora Tallinn's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.3%)
H2H summary: Flora Tallinn wins 9, draws 4, Trans Narva wins 2

Lineups

Flora Tallinn
Formation
Trans Narva
K. Kivila
K. Kivila
A. Kollo
A. Kollo
O. Pihela
O. Pihela
V. Kreida
V. Kreida
S. Tovstik
S. Tovstik
R. Valdmets
🎯
R. Valdmets
S. Zenjov
🎯
S. Zenjov
R. Sappinen
⚽ 2
R. Sappinen
T. Varjund
T. Varjund
N. Kalmokov
🎯
N. Kalmokov
A. Kaares
A. Kaares
D. Pareiko
D. Pareiko
S. Burjanadze
S. Burjanadze
C. Campagna
C. Campagna
Eriks Santos
Eriks Santos
A. Skinjov
A. Skinjov
G. Slein
G. Slein
A. Ivanyushin
A. Ivanyushin
S. Agaptsev
S. Agaptsev
D. Poliakov
D. Poliakov
J. Doke
J. Doke
A. Gero
A. Gero
Flora Tallinn 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
99
K. Kivila
3
A. Kollo
🟨 57'
24
O. Pihela
32
V. Kreida
↓ 48'
26
S. Tovstik
18
R. Valdmets
⚽ 13' 🎯 79'
20
S. Zenjov
⚽ 67' 🎯 18' ↓ 76'
11
R. Sappinen
⚽ 18' ⚽ 79'
14
T. Varjund
↓ 64'
2
N. Kalmokov
🎯 13' ↓ 76' 🟨 27'
21
A. Kaares
↓ 64' 🟨 20'
Substitutes
22
A. Tatrik
33
E. Grunvald
4
M. Jekimov
↑ 76'
6
R. Veering
7
D. Kuraksin
🎯 80' ↑ 64'
8
T. Teevali
↑ 48'
17
T. Usta
🎯 67' ↑ 64' 🟨 74'
29
S. Alamaa
⚽ 80' ↑ 76'
67
I. Antonov
78
M. Kukk
Trans Narva 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
27
D. Pareiko
25
S. Burjanadze
↓ 46'
5
C. Campagna
🟨 66' 🟨 87' 🟥 87'
12
Eriks Santos
17
A. Skinjov
↓ 58'
6
G. Slein
4
A. Ivanyushin
8
S. Agaptsev
↓ 76'
39
D. Poliakov
9
J. Doke
↓ 58'
10
A. Gero
↓ 76' 🟨 63'
Substitutes
1
M. Zahharov
16
S. Kondrattsev
⚽ 71' ↑ 58'
19
Elysee
26
H. Rowe
↑ 46'
28
K. Miranda da Silva
29
V. Kudriashov
↑ 76'
37
A. Timoska
47
N. Baljabkin
↑ 76'
70
J. Imeh
↑ 58'
88
A. Besigirskis
Last matches: Flora Tallinn
28.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
1
W
21.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
L
16.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
1
W
13.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
29.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
4
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
3
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
30.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
5
0
W
26.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
1
W
19.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
4
L
12.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
0
W
07.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
2
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
1
3
L
22.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
0
2
L
15.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
07.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
3
0
W
24.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Riga
0
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Paide
3
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Ogre United
1
0
W
Last matches: Trans Narva
21.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
0
1
L
16.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
0
D
13.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
2
L
30.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
0
3
L
20.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
1
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
09.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
2
L
01.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
0
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
7
L
18.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
5
L
07.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
3
0
W
03.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
1
W
15.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
0
1
L
07.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
1
2
L
25.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Tartu Welco
2
2
D
21.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
2
2
D
15.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
0
W
11.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Super Nova
1
3
L
H2H: Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva
16.05.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
3
W
05.05.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
1
0
W
22.04.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
6
0
W
21.10.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
4
0
W
02.08.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
1
1
D
18.06.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
1
2
W
01.03.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
2
2
D
17.09.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
1
1
D
03.08.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
3
1
W
18.05.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
1
3
W
06.04.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
4
3
W
25.02.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
2
2
D
01.11.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
1
3
W
23.07.23
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
1
4
L
03.06.23
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
1
2
L
Last matches: Flora Tallinn
21.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
30.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
5
0
W
12.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
0
W
07.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
2
1
W
15.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
07.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
3
0
W
24.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Riga
0
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Ogre United
1
0
W
31.01.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
BFC Daugavpils
4
0
W
17.07.25
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Valur Reykjavik
1
2
L
H2H at home: Flora Tallinn
05.05.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
1
0
W
22.04.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
6
0
W
21.10.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
4
0
W
01.03.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
2
2
D
03.08.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
3
1
W
06.04.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
4
3
W
25.02.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
2
2
D
23.07.23
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
1
4
L
03.06.23
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
1
2
L
Last matches: Trans Narva
21.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
0
1
L
16.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
0
D
30.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
0
3
L
09.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
2
L
26.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
7
L
11.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
5
L
03.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
15.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
0
1
L
21.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
2
2
D
15.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
0
W
31.01.26
Fri
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
0
D
H2H away: Trans Narva
05.05.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
1
0
L
22.04.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
6
0
L
21.10.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
4
0
L
01.03.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
2
2
D
03.08.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
3
1
L
06.04.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
4
3
L
25.02.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
2
2
D
23.07.23
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
1
4
W
03.06.23
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
1
2
W

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 13 4 1 46:15 31 43
L D W W W
2 17 11 0 6 35:19 16 33
W L W L W
3 18 9 4 5 30:15 15 31
D D L D L
4 18 8 5 5 27:22 5 29
D W W D D
5 16 7 2 7 18:20 -2 23
W W D L W
6 17 7 2 8 21:31 -10 23
W L D W L
7 17 6 1 10 33:40 -7 19
W L W L L
8 17 6 1 10 21:30 -9 19
L L L W L
9 17 5 2 10 17:27 -10 17
L D W D W
10 17 3 1 13 11:40 -29 10
L D L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga