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BRAZIL › SERIE A
11.10.2026 20:30
Estádio do Maracanã

Flamengo vs Fluminense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Flamengo Win 67.6%
Draw 7.2%
Fluminense Win 25.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Flamengo1.67
Fluminense1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Flamengo Flamengo
WWDLW
82 GF / 33 GA
Fluminense Fluminense
WLDWL
63 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.58
0.8
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
22
BTTS Yes
28
23
Over 2.5
20
5.73
Shots on Goal
5.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Flamengo Flamengo 41 matches
Fluminense Fluminense 40 matches
Flamengo Statistic Fluminense
27 Wins 18
10 Draws 13
4 Losses 9
82 Goals For 63
33 Goals Against 47
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.58
0.8 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
22 BTTS Yes 28
38 Over 1.5 33
23 Over 2.5 20
8 Over 3.5 11
17 Clean Sheets 9
2 Failed To Score 6
5.73 Shots On Goal 5.29
15.76 Total Shots 14.08
5.05 Corners 4.92
56.6% Ball Possession 59%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Flamengo come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Fluminense. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Flamengo Analysis

Flamengo come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 60 points after 28 matches. With 18 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats plus a goal balance of 55:23, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Pedro (15 goals), Samuel Lino (9 goals), J. Carrascal (5 goals), with creative support from Samuel Lino (7 assists), J. Carrascal (7 assists), Pedro (5 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Fluminense Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 48 points from 28 games, Fluminense bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 13 wins, 9 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 44:36, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through John Kennedy (8 goals), L. Acosta (4 goals), R. Castillo (4 goals), with creative support from L. Acosta (4 assists), A. Canobbio (2 assists), K. Serna (2 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Flamengo won 6 times, Fluminense won 3 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:9 from Flamengo's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.8%)
Predicted formations: Flamengo 4-2-3-1 / Fluminense 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Flamengo wins 6, draws 6, Fluminense wins 3

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 28 12 7 9 37:32 5 43
W D W L W
8 28 11 8 9 43:41 2 41
W W W W W
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L W L W W
11 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L L D L L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B