BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio do Maracanã
Referee: F. Rodrigues
Flamengo
Match Timeline
Bahia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
17'
G. de Arrascaeta · Assist: Pedro
Flamengo
🟨
18'
Giorgian de Arrascaeta
Flamengo
🟨
44'
Leo Pereira
Flamengo
🔄
46'
Gilberto ↔ Caio Alexandre
Bahia
🔄
46'
Willian Jose ↔ Everaldo
Bahia
🔄
66'
Samuel Lino ↔ Bruno Henrique
Flamengo
🔄
74'
Erick Pulga ↔ Ademir
Bahia
🔄
74'
Everton Ribeiro ↔ Michel Araujo
Bahia
🔄
79'
Evertton Araujo ↔ S. Niguez
Flamengo
🔄
79'
G. de Arrascaeta ↔ N. de la Cruz
Flamengo
80'
Lucas Paqueta · Assist: S. Niguez
Flamengo
🔄
85'
G. Plata ↔ Luiz Araujo
Flamengo
🔄
85'
Pedro ↔ Everton
Flamengo
🔄
85'
C. Olivera ↔ M. Sanabria
Bahia

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 70.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
70.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62%
-
Probability Distribution
Flamengo Win 66%
Draw 0%
Bahia Win 34%
Expected Goals (xG)
Flamengo1.6
Bahia1.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
Flamengo Flamengo
WWDLW
24 GF / 11 GA
Bahia Bahia
WLDWL
17 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.42
0.92
Average Goals Conceded
1
7
BTTS Yes
7
8
Over 2.5
6
5.33
Shots on Goal
4.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Flamengo Flamengo 12 matches
Bahia Bahia 12 matches
Flamengo Statistic Bahia
8 Wins 7
2 Draws 2
2 Losses 3
24 Goals For 17
11 Goals Against 12
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
0.92 Avg Goals Conceded 1
7 BTTS Yes 7
12 Over 1.5 9
8 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 1
5.33 Shots On Goal 4.83
15 Total Shots 12
4.08 Corners 5.33
54% Ball Possession 54.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Bahia. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Flamengo expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Bahia in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bahia having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Flamengo Analysis

Flamengo come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 20 points after 10 matches. The return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 18:10, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Pedro (5 goals), Lucas Paquetá (2 goals), Samuel Lino (2 goals), with creative support from Samuel Lino (3 assists), Pedro (2 assists), Guillermo Varela (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with E. Pulgar, Jorginho, J. Carrascal unavailable.

Bahia Analysis

Bahia come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 20 points after 10 matches. With 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 15:10, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Luciano Juba (4 goals), Everaldo (3 goals), David Duarte (2 goals), with creative support from Jean Lucas (2 assists), Everton Ribeiro (2 assists), Luciano Juba (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Kanu, Ruan Pablo, Ronaldo Strada unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Flamengo won 13 times, Bahia won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 33:14 from Flamengo's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Flamengo 4-2-3-1 / Bahia 4-3-3
Missing players: Flamengo 3, Bahia 2
H2H summary: Flamengo wins 13, draws 0, Bahia wins 2
Stats
Flamengo Flamengo
Bahia Bahia
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
2
6 Corner Kicks 1
12 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 2
52% Ball Possession 48%
20 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Goal 5
6 Shots off Goal 6
6 Blocked Shots 2
12 Shots insidebox 6
8 Shots outsidebox 7
5 Goalkeeper Saves 6
561 Total passes 506
491 Passes accurate 449
1.91 expected_goals 0.56
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Flamengo
Formation
Bahia
A. Rossi
A. Rossi
G. Varela
G. Varela
Leo Ortiz
Leo Ortiz
Leo Pereira
Leo Pereira
Alex Sandro
Alex Sandro
Evertton Araujo
Evertton Araujo
Lucas Paqueta
Lucas Paqueta
G. Plata
G. Plata
G. de Arrascaeta
G. de Arrascaeta
Samuel Lino
Samuel Lino
Pedro
🎯
Pedro
Leo Vieira
Leo Vieira
Gilberto
Gilberto
David Duarte
David Duarte
S. Ramos
S. Ramos
Luciano Juba
Luciano Juba
Everton Ribeiro
Everton Ribeiro
Nicolas Acevedo
Nicolas Acevedo
Jean Lucas
Jean Lucas
C. Olivera
C. Olivera
Willian Jose
Willian Jose
Erick Pulga
Erick Pulga
Flamengo 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
A. Rossi
G
2
G. Varela
D
3
Leo Ortiz
D
4
Leo Pereira
🟨 44'
D
26
Alex Sandro
D
52
Evertton Araujo
↓ 79'
M
20
Lucas Paqueta
⚽ 80'
M
19
G. Plata
↓ 85'
M
14
G. de Arrascaeta
⚽ 17' ↓ 79' 🟨 18'
M
16
Samuel Lino
↓ 66'
M
9
Pedro
🎯 17' ↓ 85'
F
Substitutes
42
A. da Silva Ventura
G
49
Dyogo Alves
G
8
S. Niguez
🎯 80' ↑ 79'
M
13
Danilo
D
27
Bruno Henrique
↑ 66'
F
6
Ayrton Lucas
D
7
Luiz Araujo
↑ 85'
F
22
Emerson Royal
D
44
Vitao
D
64
Wallace Yan
F
11
Everton
↑ 85'
F
18
N. de la Cruz
↑ 79'
M
Bahia 4-3-3
Starting XI
22
Leo Vieira
G
2
Gilberto
↓ 46'
D
33
David Duarte
D
21
S. Ramos
D
46
Luciano Juba
D
10
Everton Ribeiro
↓ 74'
M
5
Nicolas Acevedo
M
6
Jean Lucas
M
99
C. Olivera
↓ 85'
F
12
Willian Jose
↓ 46'
F
16
Erick Pulga
↓ 74'
F
Substitutes
34
Joao Paulo
G
7
Ademir
↑ 74'
F
15
Michel Araujo
↑ 74'
M
8
Caio Alexandre
↑ 46'
M
23
M. Sanabria
↑ 85'
F
31
R. Gomez
D
27
Everaldo
↑ 46'
F
25
Iago Borduchi
D
4
Kanu
D
14
Erick
M
11
Rodrigo
M
3
Gabriel Xavier
D
Last matches: Flamengo
03.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
River Plate
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Coritiba
3
0
W
27.05.26
CON
Flamengo
Cusco
3
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Palmeiras
0
3
L
21.05.26
CON
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Atletico Paranaense
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Gremio
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vasco DA Gama
2
2
D
30.04.26
CON
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Atletico-MG
4
0
W
17.04.26
CON
Flamengo
Independiente Medellin
4
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Fluminense
2
1
W
09.04.26
CON
Flamengo
Cusco
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Santos
3
1
W
03.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
RB Bragantino
0
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Flamengo
Corinthians
1
1
D
19.03.26
Ser
Flamengo
Remo
3
0
W
14.03.26
Ser
Flamengo
Botafogo
3
0
W
12.03.26
Ser
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
0
W
11.02.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vitoria
2
1
W
Last matches: Bahia
30.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Botafogo
2
1
W
25.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Coritiba
2
3
L
17.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Gremio
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Sao Paulo
2
2
D
25.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Santos
2
2
D
11.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Mirassol
2
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Palmeiras
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Remo
1
4
L
18.03.26
Ser
Bahia
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
15.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Internacional
1
0
W
11.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Vitoria
1
1
D
25.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
2
1
W
18.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
05.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Fluminense
1
1
D
28.01.26
Ser
Bahia
Corinthians
2
1
W
H2H: Flamengo vs Bahia
19.04.26
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
2
0
W
05.10.25
H2H
Bahia
Flamengo
1
0
L
11.05.25
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
1
0
W
05.10.24
H2H
Bahia
Flamengo
0
2
W
13.09.24
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
1
0
W
29.08.24
H2H
Bahia
Flamengo
0
1
W
20.06.24
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
2
1
W
30.09.23
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
1
0
W
13.05.23
H2H
Bahia
Flamengo
2
3
W
11.11.21
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
3
0
W
18.07.21
H2H
Bahia
Flamengo
0
5
W
20.12.20
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
4
3
W
02.09.20
H2H
Bahia
Flamengo
3
5
W
10.11.19
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
3
1
W
04.08.19
H2H
Bahia
Flamengo
3
0
L
Last matches: Flamengo
03.07.26
Fri
Flamengo
River Plate
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Coritiba
3
0
W
27.05.26
CON
Flamengo
Cusco
3
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Palmeiras
0
3
L
21.05.26
CON
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Flamengo
Vasco DA Gama
2
2
D
17.04.26
CON
Flamengo
Independiente Medellin
4
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Flamengo
Santos
3
1
W
19.03.26
Ser
Flamengo
Remo
3
0
W
12.03.26
Ser
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
2
0
W
04.02.26
Ser
Flamengo
Internacional
1
1
D
H2H at home: Flamengo
19.04.26
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
2
0
W
11.05.25
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
1
0
W
13.09.24
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
1
0
W
20.06.24
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
2
1
W
30.09.23
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
1
0
W
11.11.21
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
3
0
W
20.12.20
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
4
3
W
10.11.19
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
3
1
W
Last matches: Bahia
25.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Coritiba
2
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Sao Paulo
2
2
D
11.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Mirassol
2
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Remo
1
4
L
15.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Internacional
1
0
W
18.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
28.01.26
Ser
Bahia
Corinthians
2
1
W
H2H away: Bahia
19.04.26
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
2
0
L
11.05.25
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
1
0
L
13.09.24
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
1
0
L
20.06.24
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
2
1
L
30.09.23
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
1
0
L
11.11.21
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
3
0
L
20.12.20
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
4
3
L
10.11.19
H2H
Flamengo
Bahia
3
1
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 5 1 30:13 17 41
?
2 17 10 4 3 31:16 15 34
?
3 18 9 4 5 28:23 5 31
?
4 18 9 3 6 24:18 6 30
?
5 18 9 2 7 25:19 6 29
?
6
Bahia Away
17 7 5 5 25:23 2 26
?
7 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
?
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
?
9 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
?
10 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
?
11 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
?
12 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
?
13 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
?
14 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
?
15 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
?
16 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
?
17 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
?
18 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
?
19 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
?
20 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9
?
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Flamengo 3 missing
-
E. Pulgar
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Jorginho
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
J. Carrascal
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
Bahia 2 missing
-
Ruan Pablo
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
Ronaldo Strada
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT