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LATVIA › VIRSLIGA
12.05.2026 15:00
Daugavas stadions
Referee: V. Spasjonnikovs
FK Liepaja
Match Timeline
Ogre United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
5'
V. Sorokins · Assist: I. Korotkovs
FK Liepaja
🟨
24'
V. Sorokins
FK Liepaja
🔄
28'
V. Mashchenko ↔ K. Johnson
Ogre United
🔄
46'
A. Haidara ↔ I. Pulis
FK Liepaja
🔄
46'
K. Kumakura ↔ R. Aditajs
Ogre United
🟨
47'
I. Pulis
FK Liepaja
⚽
60'
D. Gueye
FK Liepaja
🔄
61'
D. Vejkrigers ↔ M. Marusii
Ogre United
🔄
65'
↔ C. Amatkarijo
FK Liepaja
⚽
66'
K. Cudars
Ogre United
🔄
78'
M. Kalnins ↔ D. Sedols
Ogre United
🔄
78'
↔ T. Marusiy
Ogre United
⚽
79'
C. Amatkarijo · Assist: V. Sorokins
FK Liepaja
🟨
83'
K. Cudars
Ogre United
🔄
85'
M. Martins ↔ K. Iljins
FK Liepaja
🔄
85'
A. Traore ↔ Fellipe Vieira
FK Liepaja
🔄
90'
I. Patrikejevs ↔ K. Leidsman
FK Liepaja
⚽
90'
K. Leidsman · Assist: Fellipe Vieira
FK Liepaja

FK Liepaja vs Ogre United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 37.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
21.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
37.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
FK Liepaja Win 100%
Draw 0%
Ogre United Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
FK Liepaja1.71
Ogre United1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja
WWDLW
27 GF / 32 GA
Ogre United Ogre United
WLDWL
10 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
0.77
1.68
Average Goals Conceded
2.15
12
BTTS Yes
8
11
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FK Liepaja FK Liepaja 19 matches
Ogre United Ogre United 13 matches
FK Liepaja Statistic Ogre United
7 Wins 0
4 Draws 3
8 Losses 10
27 Goals For 10
32 Goals Against 28
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 0.77
1.68 Avg Goals Conceded 2.15
12 BTTS Yes 8
15 Over 1.5 10
11 Over 2.5 6
6 Over 3.5 3
1 Clean Sheets 0
6 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ogre United having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. FK Liepaja arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 12 points compared to Ogre United in 10 on 3, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Ogre United arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Ogre United.

FK Liepaja Analysis

From their first 11 matches, FK Liepaja have collected 12 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 10:17 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by D. Gueye (2 goals), D. Patijcuks (2 goals), I. Patrikejevs (2 goals), with creative support from A. Korobenko (1 assists), A. Ogunniyi (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ogre United Analysis

Ogre United approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 3 points from 11 matches. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 3 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 9:25 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on K. Cudars (4 goals), E. Evelons (1 goals), K. Johnson (1 goals), with creative support from M. Kalnins (1 assists), D. Vejkrigers (1 assists), F. Machado (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, FK Liepaja won 3 times, Ogre United won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:1 from FK Liepaja's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1 (100%)
Predicted formations: FK Liepaja 4-2-3-1 / Ogre United -
H2H summary: FK Liepaja wins 3, draws 0, Ogre United wins 0

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 24 5 2 75:24 51 77
W D W D W
2 32 23 7 2 88:30 58 76
W W W D D
3 31 18 7 6 49:30 19 61
D W D W D
4 31 12 7 12 41:43 -2 43
D D D W L
5 32 11 9 12 37:36 1 42
W D L D L
6 31 11 5 15 31:41 -10 38
W L L W W
7 32 8 8 16 34:53 -19 32
L L D L W
8 32 5 11 16 22:54 -32 26
L D D L W
9 32 5 9 18 44:63 -19 24
L D L W L
10 32 4 6 22 31:78 -47 18
L W L D L