GERMANY 3. LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Audi Sportpark
Referee: C. Kabalakli
FC Ingolstadt 04
Match Timeline
Erzgebirge Aue
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
7'
F. Carlsen · Assist: Y. Sturm
FC Ingolstadt 04
13'
G. Christensen · Assist: L. Rosenlocher
FC Ingolstadt 04
18'
J. Guttau · Assist: M. Bar
Erzgebirge Aue
🔄
20'
D. Kaygin ↔ E. Kehrer
FC Ingolstadt 04
36'
M. Costly
FC Ingolstadt 04
🟨
43'
Ryan Malone
Erzgebirge Aue
🟨
49'
Gustav Christensen
FC Ingolstadt 04
53'
J. Guttau
Erzgebirge Aue
🟨
58'
Tristan Zobel
Erzgebirge Aue
🔄
63'
L. Simnica ↔ J. Gunther-Schmidt
Erzgebirge Aue
🔄
63'
J. Collins ↔ E. Majetschak
Erzgebirge Aue
63'
E. Weinhauer · Assist: T. Zobel
Erzgebirge Aue
69'
R. Malone · Assist: A. Barylla
Erzgebirge Aue
🔄
73'
G. Christensen ↔ M. Hoppe
FC Ingolstadt 04
🔄
73'
Y. Sturm ↔ O. Drakulic
FC Ingolstadt 04
🟨
74'
Emilio Kehrer
FC Ingolstadt 04
🔄
76'
M. Bar ↔ R. Bornschein
Erzgebirge Aue
🔄
76'
E. Weinhauer ↔ M. Schmid
Erzgebirge Aue
🔄
81'
R. Malone ↔ E. Uhlmann
Erzgebirge Aue
🔄
88'
F. Carlsen ↔ M. Plath
FC Ingolstadt 04
🔄
88'
M. Besuschkow ↔ J. Maljojoki
FC Ingolstadt 04
89'
J. Guttau · Assist: J. Gunther-Schmidt
Erzgebirge Aue

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
73.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
FC Ingolstadt 04 Win 54.1%
Draw 32.8%
Erzgebirge Aue Win 13.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Ingolstadt 041.69
Erzgebirge Aue1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Ingolstadt 04 FC Ingolstadt 04
WWDLW
55 GF / 49 GA
Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue
WLDWL
42 GF / 65 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
1.2
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.86
25
BTTS Yes
23
24
Over 2.5
23
4.28
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Ingolstadt 04 FC Ingolstadt 04 35 matches
Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 35 matches
FC Ingolstadt 04 Statistic Erzgebirge Aue
11 Wins 5
10 Draws 12
14 Losses 18
55 Goals For 42
49 Goals Against 65
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1.86
25 BTTS Yes 23
28 Over 1.5 28
24 Over 2.5 23
11 Over 3.5 15
7 Clean Sheets 7
6 Failed To Score 9
4.28 Shots On Goal 3
11.76 Total Shots 9.31
3.93 Corners 4.55
42.6% Ball Possession 39.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights FC Ingolstadt 04's more proactive style and Erzgebirge Aue's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Erzgebirge Aue. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Ingolstadt 04 expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Erzgebirge Aue in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Erzgebirge Aue having the stronger overall control. FC Ingolstadt 04 have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

FC Ingolstadt 04 Analysis

FC Ingolstadt 04 sit 13 with 43 points after 35 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 11 wins, 10 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 55:49 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Costly (15 goals), Dennis Kaygın (7 goals), Y. Sturm (6 goals), with creative support from M. Costly (8 assists), F. Carlsen (7 assists), M. Besuschkow (6 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Erzgebirge Aue Analysis

With 27 points from 35 games and a place of 19, Erzgebirge Aue still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 5 wins, 12 draws, and 18 defeats with a 42:65 goal balance points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Bar (8 goals), J. Guttau (5 goals), M. Stefaniak (4 goals), with creative support from Eric Uhlmann (4 assists), Mika Clausen (4 assists), Pascal Fallmann (4 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Ingolstadt 04 won 6 times, Erzgebirge Aue won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:20 from FC Ingolstadt 04's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (86.9%)
Predicted formations: FC Ingolstadt 04 3-4-3 / Erzgebirge Aue 4-4-2
H2H summary: FC Ingolstadt 04 wins 6, draws 3, Erzgebirge Aue wins 6
Stats
FC Ingolstadt 04 FC Ingolstadt 04
Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
0
2 Corner Kicks 2
9 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 1
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Goal 7
2 Shots off Goal 4
5 Blocked Shots 0
11 Shots insidebox 9
3 Shots outsidebox 2
2 Goalkeeper Saves 4
489 Total passes 365
413 Passes accurate 305
1.50 expected_goals 1.47
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

FC Ingolstadt 04
Formation
Erzgebirge Aue
D. Klein
D. Klein
G. Antzoulas
G. Antzoulas
S. Lorenz
S. Lorenz
J. Scholz
J. Scholz
G. Christensen
G. Christensen
M. Besuschkow
M. Besuschkow
F. Carlsen
F. Carlsen
L. Rosenlocher
🎯
L. Rosenlocher
D. Kaygin
D. Kaygin
Y. Sturm
🎯
Y. Sturm
M. Costly
M. Costly
L. Lord
L. Lord
A. Barylla
🎯
A. Barylla
R. Malone
R. Malone
T. Zobel
🎯
T. Zobel
J. Collins
J. Collins
L. Simnica
L. Simnica
J. Fabisch
J. Fabisch
E. Weinhauer
E. Weinhauer
J. Guttau
⚽ 3
J. Guttau
M. Seiffert
M. Seiffert
M. Bar
🎯
M. Bar
FC Ingolstadt 04 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
47
D. Klein
G
6
G. Antzoulas
D
32
S. Lorenz
D
15
J. Scholz
D
24
G. Christensen
⚽ 13' ↓ 73' 🟨 49'
M
17
M. Besuschkow
↓ 88'
M
8
F. Carlsen
⚽ 7' ↓ 88'
M
19
L. Rosenlocher
🎯 13'
M
10
D. Kaygin
↓ 20'
M
7
Y. Sturm
🎯 7' ↓ 73'
22
M. Costly
⚽ 36'
F
Substitutes
25
K. Eisele
G
2
M. Hoppe
↑ 73'
M
5
E. Gul
M
14
M. Plath
↑ 88'
M
23
J. Maljojoki
↑ 88'
M
29
J. Kugel
30
O. Drakulic
↑ 73'
34
L. Frode
M
44
E. Kehrer
↑ 20' 🟨 74'
M
Erzgebirge Aue 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
L. Lord
G
23
A. Barylla
🎯 69'
D
16
R. Malone
⚽ 69' ↓ 81' 🟨 43'
D
25
T. Zobel
🎯 63' 🟨 58'
D
29
J. Collins
↓ 63'
D
5
L. Simnica
↓ 63'
M
20
J. Fabisch
M
7
E. Weinhauer
⚽ 63' ↓ 76'
M
19
J. Guttau
⚽ 18' ⚽ 53' ⚽ 89'
M
30
M. Seiffert
M
15
M. Bar
🎯 18' ↓ 76'
F
Substitutes
1
M. Mannel
G
36
M. Uhlig
G
9
R. Bornschein
↑ 76'
F
10
J. Gunther-Schmidt
🎯 89' ↑ 63'
M
11
E. Uhlmann
↑ 81'
D
13
E. Majetschak
↑ 63'
D
39
M. Schmid
↑ 76'
45
A. F. Ocansey V.
Last matches: FC Ingolstadt 04
16.05.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Waldhof Mannheim
5
1
W
09.05.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
TSV 1860 München
2
1
W
25.04.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Hoffenheim II
3
0
W
18.04.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
VfL Osnabrück
0
1
L
11.04.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Rot-Weiß Essen
1
4
L
08.04.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Viktoria Köln
1
2
L
05.04.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Saarbrücken
0
1
L
25.03.26
Fri
FC Ingolstadt 04
SSV Ulm 1846
1
2
L
21.03.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Alemannia Aachen
1
2
L
15.03.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
SSV Ulm 1846
3
1
W
08.03.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Verl
1
2
L
04.03.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
MSV Duisburg
0
0
D
28.02.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
SV Wehen
1
2
L
21.02.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Havelse
3
2
W
15.02.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Schweinfurt 05
1
1
D
07.02.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Energie Cottbus
0
0
D
31.01.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Hansa Rostock
3
0
W
24.01.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Stuttgart II
2
1
W
16.01.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
SSV Jahn Regensburg
3
0
W
09.01.26
Fri
FC Ingolstadt 04
Ried
4
2
W
Last matches: Erzgebirge Aue
16.05.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
FC Schweinfurt 05
4
2
W
08.05.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
MSV Duisburg
0
0
D
25.04.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
SV Wehen
2
2
D
19.04.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
Stuttgart II
2
2
D
12.04.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
Verl
1
1
D
07.04.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
SSV Jahn Regensburg
0
1
L
04.04.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
Hoffenheim II
3
5
L
21.03.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
Waldhof Mannheim
1
2
L
14.03.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
Rot-Weiß Essen
2
4
L
07.03.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
Alemannia Aachen
1
3
L
03.03.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
TSV 1860 München
1
2
L
28.02.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
VfL Osnabrück
1
3
L
22.02.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
Energie Cottbus
1
2
L
13.02.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
FC Viktoria Köln
2
2
D
07.02.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
FC Saarbrücken
0
0
D
30.01.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
Havelse
1
3
L
24.01.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
SSV Ulm 1846
0
3
L
17.01.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
Hansa Rostock
1
2
L
05.01.26
Fri
Erzgebirge Aue
Union Berlin
1
2
L
20.12.25
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
FC Schweinfurt 05
4
0
W
H2H: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Erzgebirge Aue
03.05.26
H2H
FC Ingolstadt 04
Erzgebirge Aue
3
5
L
07.12.25
H2H
Erzgebirge Aue
FC Ingolstadt 04
2
2
D
04.05.25
H2H
Erzgebirge Aue
FC Ingolstadt 04
1
0
L
07.12.24
H2H
FC Ingolstadt 04
Erzgebirge Aue
1
0
W
19.12.23
H2H
FC Ingolstadt 04
Erzgebirge AUE
1
1
D
06.08.23
H2H
Erzgebirge AUE
FC Ingolstadt 04
1
0
L
20.05.23
H2H
Erzgebirge AUE
FC Ingolstadt 04
0
3
W
16.01.23
H2H
FC Ingolstadt 04
Erzgebirge AUE
1
2
L
01.04.22
H2H
FC Ingolstadt 04
Erzgebirge AUE
3
2
W
22.10.21
H2H
Erzgebirge AUE
FC Ingolstadt 04
1
0
L
09.08.21
H2H
FC Ingolstadt 04
Erzgebirge AUE
2
1
W
10.02.19
H2H
Erzgebirge AUE
FC Ingolstadt 04
0
3
W
31.08.18
H2H
FC Ingolstadt 04
Erzgebirge AUE
3
2
W
11.02.18
H2H
Erzgebirge AUE
FC Ingolstadt 04
0
0
D
09.09.17
H2H
FC Ingolstadt 04
Erzgebirge AUE
1
2
L
Last matches: FC Ingolstadt 04
16.05.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Waldhof Mannheim
5
1
W
18.04.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
VfL Osnabrück
0
1
L
08.04.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Viktoria Köln
1
2
L
25.03.26
Fri
FC Ingolstadt 04
SSV Ulm 1846
1
2
L
21.03.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Alemannia Aachen
1
2
L
08.03.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Verl
1
2
L
04.03.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
MSV Duisburg
0
0
D
21.02.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Havelse
3
2
W
07.02.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Energie Cottbus
0
0
D
24.01.26
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Stuttgart II
2
1
W
09.01.26
Fri
FC Ingolstadt 04
Ried
4
2
W
13.12.25
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
TSV 1860 München
1
2
L
29.11.25
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Hoffenheim II
3
2
W
08.11.25
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Rot-Weiß Essen
1
2
L
25.10.25
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Saarbrücken
2
1
W
04.10.25
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
SSV Ulm 1846
4
1
W
20.09.25
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
SV Wehen
0
0
D
13.09.25
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Schweinfurt 05
2
3
L
24.08.25
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
Hansa Rostock
1
1
D
02.08.25
3.
FC Ingolstadt 04
SSV Jahn Regensburg
1
1
D
H2H at home: FC Ingolstadt 04
03.05.26
H2H
FC Ingolstadt 04
Erzgebirge Aue
3
5
L
07.12.24
H2H
FC Ingolstadt 04
Erzgebirge Aue
1
0
W
19.12.23
H2H
FC Ingolstadt 04
Erzgebirge AUE
1
1
D
16.01.23
H2H
FC Ingolstadt 04
Erzgebirge AUE
1
2
L
01.04.22
H2H
FC Ingolstadt 04
Erzgebirge AUE
3
2
W
09.08.21
H2H
FC Ingolstadt 04
Erzgebirge AUE
2
1
W
31.08.18
H2H
FC Ingolstadt 04
Erzgebirge AUE
3
2
W
09.09.17
H2H
FC Ingolstadt 04
Erzgebirge AUE
1
2
L
Last matches: Erzgebirge Aue
16.05.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
FC Schweinfurt 05
4
2
W
19.04.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
Stuttgart II
2
2
D
07.04.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
SSV Jahn Regensburg
0
1
L
21.03.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
Waldhof Mannheim
1
2
L
14.03.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
Rot-Weiß Essen
2
4
L
03.03.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
TSV 1860 München
1
2
L
13.02.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
FC Viktoria Köln
2
2
D
30.01.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
Havelse
1
3
L
17.01.26
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
Hansa Rostock
1
2
L
13.12.25
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
MSV Duisburg
0
0
D
28.11.25
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
SV Wehen
1
3
L
08.11.25
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
Verl
1
1
D
26.10.25
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
Hoffenheim II
1
1
D
30.09.25
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
Alemannia Aachen
1
0
W
20.09.25
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
VfL Osnabrück
1
3
L
17.09.25
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
Energie Cottbus
1
2
L
30.08.25
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
FC Saarbrücken
1
4
L
09.08.25
3.
Erzgebirge Aue
SSV Ulm 1846
0
1
L
H2H away: Erzgebirge Aue
03.05.26
H2H
FC Ingolstadt 04
Erzgebirge Aue
3
5
W
07.12.24
H2H
FC Ingolstadt 04
Erzgebirge Aue
1
0
L

Standings

3. Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 8 6 66:34 32 80
W D W W W
2 38 21 9 8 72:51 21 72
W W L W W
3 38 20 10 8 78:66 12 70
W W L L L
4 38 19 11 8 66:49 17 68
D D W L W
5 38 18 13 7 74:49 25 67
W W D L D
6 38 18 10 10 82:48 34 64
W L W L W
7 38 19 7 12 76:57 19 64
W W D W W
8 38 15 11 12 54:53 1 56
L L D W D
9 38 15 8 15 54:52 2 53
W L L D D
10 38 15 7 16 59:72 -13 52
L W L D D
11 38 15 6 17 51:53 -2 51
D L W L L
12 38 13 10 15 65:56 9 49
W W L W L
13 38 14 7 17 54:58 -4 49
L L W W L
14 38 13 7 18 57:69 -12 46
L L W L D
15 38 10 14 14 51:57 -6 44
L L W W D
16 38 12 7 19 65:71 -6 43
L W L L L
17 38 9 8 21 57:89 -32 35
L W L W L
18 38 7 13 18 51:70 -19 34
W D W D D
19 38 9 6 23 49:78 -29 33
L D L L W
20 38 5 6 27 38:87 -49 21
L L D D D
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga (Promotion)
Relegation