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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
13.10.2026 18:45
Cardiff City Stadium

Cardiff vs Watford Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cardiff Win 68.4%
Draw 13.9%
Watford Win 17.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cardiff1.75
Watford1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cardiff Cardiff
WWDLW
25 GF / 21 GA
Watford Watford
WLDWL
13 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
2.08
Average Goals Scored
1.08
1.75
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
9
BTTS Yes
7
8
Over 2.5
6
6.63
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cardiff Cardiff 12 matches
Watford Watford 12 matches
Cardiff Statistic Watford
4 Wins 3
4 Draws 3
4 Losses 6
25 Goals For 13
21 Goals Against 15
2.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
1.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
9 BTTS Yes 7
11 Over 1.5 9
8 Over 2.5 6
7 Over 3.5 1
0 Clean Sheets 1
3 Failed To Score 4
6.63 Shots On Goal 3.5
18.88 Total Shots 11.63
7.88 Corners 3.63
64.6% Ball Possession 46%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Watford. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Cardiff Analysis

Cardiff approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 21 with 7 points from 8 matches. Their record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 10:12, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Moylan (3 goals), Y. Salech (2 goals), Cian Ashford (2 goals), with creative support from J. Moylan (1 assists), Y. Salech (1 assists), Cian Ashford (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Watford Analysis

With 8 points from 8 games and a place of 20, Watford still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 7:10, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Amin Nabizada (3 goals), Iker Bravo (1 goals), E. Kayembe (1 goals), with creative support from Iker Bravo (1 assists), E. Kayembe (1 assists), O. Traoré (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cardiff won 6 times, Watford won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:22 from Cardiff's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.1%)
Predicted formations: Cardiff 4-2-3-1 / Watford 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cardiff wins 6, draws 4, Watford wins 5

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 5 2 1 13:6 7 17
W W L D W
2 8 4 3 1 22:11 11 15
D W W W W
3 8 4 3 1 16:12 4 15
D D W W D
4 7 4 2 1 15:10 5 14
W W D L W
5 8 4 2 2 10:8 2 14
L D W W D
6 8 3 4 1 10:7 3 13
D D D L W
7 8 4 1 3 13:12 1 13
W W D W W
8 8 4 1 3 11:12 -1 13
W L L W W
9 8 3 3 2 7:10 -3 12
L D D L D
10 8 2 5 1 12:11 1 11
D W L D D
11 8 3 2 3 15:15 0 11
D D L W L
12 8 3 2 3 7:8 -1 11
L W W D D
13 8 4 2 2 19:10 9 10
L W W D D
14 8 2 4 2 9:12 -3 10
W L D D W
15 8 3 1 4 11:15 -4 10
W W L L L
16 8 2 3 3 12:12 0 9
D W L L D
17 8 3 0 5 16:17 -1 9
L L W W L
18 8 2 3 3 9:11 -2 9
L L W L W
19 7 2 2 3 9:10 -1 8
D D W L L
20 8 2 2 4 7:10 -3 8
L L W L L
21 8 1 4 3 10:12 -2 7
W L D L L
22 8 1 2 5 7:14 -7 5
D L L L W
23 8 1 1 6 8:15 -7 4
D L L W L
24 8 0 4 4 9:17 -8 4
D L D L D
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One