🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
TQL Stadium
Referee: M. Badawi
FC Cincinnati
Match Timeline
Chicago Fire
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
7'
Samuel Gidi
FC Cincinnati
🟨
11'
Tom Barlow
FC Cincinnati
26'
H. Cuypers
Chicago Fire
42'
T. Barlow
FC Cincinnati
45'
P. Zinckernagel
Chicago Fire
🔄
46'
G. Flores ↔ T. Hadebe
FC Cincinnati
48'
H. Cuypers
Chicago Fire
🔄
64'
M. Robinson ↔ A. Powell
FC Cincinnati
🔄
70'
T. Barlow ↔ A. Jabbari
FC Cincinnati
🔄
70'
E. Echenique ↔ G. Valenzuela
FC Cincinnati
🔄
73'
P. Zinckernagel ↔ J. Waterman
Chicago Fire
79'
Evander
FC Cincinnati
🔄
83'
J. Dean ↔ D. Borso
Chicago Fire
🔄
83'
R. Lod ↔ P. Dithejane
Chicago Fire
🔄
85'
K. Mboma ↔ K. Smith
FC Cincinnati
86'
D. D'Avilla
FC Cincinnati
🟨
90'
Pavel Bucha
FC Cincinnati
🟨
90'
Bryan Ramirez
FC Cincinnati
🟨
90+9'
Mbekezeli Mbokazi
Chicago Fire
🟨
90+9'
Jack Elliott
Chicago Fire
🟨
90'
Dylan Borso
Chicago Fire
🔄
90+4'
M. Haile-Selassie ↔ V. Radojevic
Chicago Fire

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 77.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 78.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
77.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
78.5%
-
Probability Distribution
FC Cincinnati Win 63.5%
Draw 0%
Chicago Fire Win 36.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Cincinnati1.68
Chicago Fire1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
WWDLW
32 GF / 26 GA
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire
WLDWL
18 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
2.13
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.73
Average Goals Conceded
1
8
BTTS Yes
6
8
Over 2.5
7
5.91
Shots on Goal
4.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 15 matches
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 13 matches
FC Cincinnati Statistic Chicago Fire
6 Wins 6
3 Draws 4
6 Losses 3
32 Goals For 18
26 Goals Against 13
2.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.73 Avg Goals Conceded 1
8 BTTS Yes 6
12 Over 1.5 7
8 Over 2.5 7
7 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 7
2 Failed To Score 3
5.91 Shots On Goal 4.14
13.91 Total Shots 12
5.18 Corners 4.29
51.5% Ball Possession 50.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Chicago Fire's more proactive style and FC Cincinnati's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Chicago Fire carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 13 points while FC Cincinnati sit 10 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. FC Cincinnati have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Cincinnati expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Chicago Fire in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Chicago Fire having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Chicago Fire.

FC Cincinnati Analysis

FC Cincinnati approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 7 points from 7 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 10:16 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on K. Denkey (2 goals), Ayoub Jabbari (1 goals), E. Echenique (1 goals), with creative support from E. Echenique (2 assists), K. Denkey (1 assists), Ayoub Jabbari (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without S. Chirila, K. Fletcher, M. Robinson, K. Denkey, the biggest concern is that one of those absentees also contributes heavily in both finishing and chance creation.

Chicago Fire Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 13 points from 7 games, Chicago Fire bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 9:5, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through H. Cuypers (4 goals), J. Bamba (2 goals), M. Haile-Selassie (1 goals), with creative support from J. Bamba (2 assists), A. Gutman (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with A. Franco, C. Mueller, S. Rogers unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Cincinnati won 7 times, Chicago Fire won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:24 from FC Cincinnati's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: FC Cincinnati 3-4-1-2 / Chicago Fire 4-4-2
Missing players: FC Cincinnati 4, Chicago Fire 6
H2H summary: FC Cincinnati wins 7, draws 4, Chicago Fire wins 4
Stats
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
10
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
8
9 Corner Kicks 1
11 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 0
55% Ball Possession 45%
23 Total Shots 18
9 Shots on Goal 6
10 Shots off Goal 4
4 Blocked Shots 8
22 Shots insidebox 11
1 Shots outsidebox 7
3 Goalkeeper Saves 7
483 Total passes 413
400 Passes accurate 318
4.12 expected_goals 1.75
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

FC Cincinnati
Formation
Chicago Fire
R. Celentano
R. Celentano
N. Hagglund
N. Hagglund
M. Robinson
M. Robinson
G. Flores
G. Flores
E. Echenique
E. Echenique
P. Bucha
P. Bucha
S. Gidi
S. Gidi
B. J. Ramirez Leon
B. J. Ramirez Leon
Evander
Evander
K. Mboma
K. Mboma
T. Barlow
T. Barlow
C. Brady
C. Brady
J. Dean
J. Dean
J. Elliott
J. Elliott
M. Mbokazi
M. Mbokazi
A. Gutman
A. Gutman
P. Zinckernagel
P. Zinckernagel
A. Saletros
A. Saletros
D. D'Avilla
D. D'Avilla
M. Haile-Selassie
M. Haile-Selassie
H. Cuypers
⚽ 2
H. Cuypers
R. Lod
R. Lod
FC Cincinnati 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
18
R. Celentano
G
4
N. Hagglund
D
12
M. Robinson
↓ 64'
D
3
G. Flores
↓ 46'
D
66
E. Echenique
↓ 70'
M
20
P. Bucha
🟨 90'
M
11
S. Gidi
🟨 7'
M
29
B. J. Ramirez Leon
🟨 90'
M
10
Evander
⚽ 79'
F
17
K. Mboma
↓ 85'
F
16
T. Barlow
⚽ 42' ↓ 70' 🟨 11'
F
Substitutes
13
E. Louro
G
15
T. Hadebe
↑ 46'
D
27
T. Anunga
M
99
A. Jabbari
↑ 70'
F
2
A. Powell
↑ 64'
D
24
K. Smith
↑ 85'
D
22
G. Valenzuela
↑ 70'
M
Chicago Fire 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
C. Brady
G
24
J. Dean
↓ 83'
D
3
J. Elliott
🟨 90+9'
D
4
M. Mbokazi
🟨 90+9'
D
15
A. Gutman
D
11
P. Zinckernagel
⚽ 45' ↓ 73'
M
6
A. Saletros
M
42
D. D'Avilla
⚽ 86'
M
7
M. Haile-Selassie
↓ 90+4'
M
9
H. Cuypers
⚽ 26' ⚽ 48'
F
17
R. Lod
↓ 83'
F
Substitutes
44
J. Cohen
G
16
J. Waterman
↑ 73'
D
22
M. Pineda
D
20
J. Shokalook
F
27
D. Borso
↑ 83' 🟨 90'
F
14
V. Radojevic
↑ 90+4'
D
12
P. Dithejane
↑ 83'
F
29
D. Poreba
M
35
S. Oregel
M
Last matches: FC Cincinnati
23.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
6
2
W
17.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
San Diego
3
3
D
13.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
5
L
09.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Charlotte
2
2
D
03.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
2
W
25.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
0
W
22.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
4
4
D
11.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
1
1
D
04.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
4
L
22.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
CF Montreal
4
3
W
20.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
1
5
L
15.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New England Revolution
1
6
L
13.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
3
0
W
08.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
0
1
L
28.02.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Minnesota United FC
0
1
L
26.02.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Universidad O&M
9
0
W
21.02.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Atlanta United FC
2
0
W
19.02.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Universidad O&M
4
0
W
11.02.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
2
3
L
07.02.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Detroit City
1
0
W
Last matches: Chicago Fire
24.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Toronto FC
2
1
W
16.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
CF Montreal
2
0
W
13.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
DC United
3
1
W
09.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
New York Red Bulls
1
3
L
03.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
2
3
L
26.04.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Sporting Kansas City
5
0
W
12.04.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Atlanta United FC
1
0
W
05.04.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Nashville SC
1
0
W
21.03.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
15.03.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
DC United
1
2
L
08.03.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Columbus Crew
0
0
D
28.02.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
CF Montreal
3
0
W
22.02.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Houston Dynamo
1
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Portland Timbers
3
4
L
13.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Indy Eleven
0
0
D
11.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Austin
2
2
D
08.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Los Angeles Galaxy
3
2
W
01.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Indy Eleven
0
0
D
24.01.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Sporting Kansas City
1
0
W
H2H: FC Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire
03.05.26
H2H
Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
2
3
W
18.04.26
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
3
D
05.07.25
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
2
1
W
20.04.25
H2H
Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
2
3
W
17.07.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
0
1
L
03.03.24
H2H
Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
1
2
W
03.06.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
1
0
W
19.03.23
H2H
Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
3
3
D
01.10.22
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
2
3
L
15.05.22
H2H
Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
1
2
W
20.10.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
4
L
24.06.21
H2H
Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
0
1
W
02.09.20
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
0
0
D
25.08.20
H2H
Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
3
0
L
21.09.19
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
0
0
D
Last matches: FC Cincinnati
23.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
6
2
W
13.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
5
L
25.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
0
W
22.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
CF Montreal
4
3
W
13.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
3
0
W
08.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
0
1
L
26.02.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Universidad O&M
9
0
W
21.02.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Atlanta United FC
2
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Detroit City
1
0
W
H2H at home: FC Cincinnati
18.04.26
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
3
D
05.07.25
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
2
1
W
17.07.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
0
1
L
03.06.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
1
0
W
01.10.22
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
2
3
L
20.10.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
4
L
02.09.20
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
0
0
D
21.09.19
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
0
0
D
Last matches: Chicago Fire
16.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
CF Montreal
2
0
W
13.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
DC United
3
1
W
21.03.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
08.03.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Columbus Crew
0
0
D
22.02.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Houston Dynamo
1
2
L
13.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Indy Eleven
0
0
D
11.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Austin
2
2
D
08.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Los Angeles Galaxy
3
2
W
01.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Indy Eleven
0
0
D
24.01.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Sporting Kansas City
1
0
W
H2H away: Chicago Fire
18.04.26
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
3
D
05.07.25
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
2
1
L
17.07.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
0
1
W
03.06.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
1
0
L
01.10.22
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
2
3
W
20.10.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
4
W
02.09.20
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
0
0
D
21.09.19
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
0
0
D

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 10 3 1 31:11 20 33
W W W D D
2 15 9 4 2 39:28 11 31
W W W W L
3 14 8 2 4 27:16 11 26
W W W L L
4 14 8 1 5 22:18 4 25
L W L W W
5 15 6 4 5 25:32 -7 22
W D W W L
6 15 6 3 6 24:23 1 21
W W L D L
7 15 5 5 5 36:37 -1 20
W D L D W
8 15 5 4 6 25:21 4 19
L D W W L
9 15 4 6 5 21:25 -4 18
D D L D W
10 15 4 4 7 21:23 -2 16
W D L L L
11 14 4 2 8 22:31 -9 14
D L D W L
12 15 4 2 9 23:44 -21 14
L D W L W
13 14 3 5 6 22:29 -7 14
L L L D L
14 14 3 2 9 14:23 -9 11
L D L W W
15 15 1 4 10 18:30 -12 7
L D L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Missing Players

FC Cincinnati 4 missing
-
K. Fletcher
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
O. Nwobodo
Missing Fixture Leg Injury
OUT
-
M. Miazga
Missing Fixture Leg Injury
OUT
-
K. Denkey
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
Chicago Fire 6 missing
-
A. Franco
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
C. Mueller
Missing Fixture Lower-Body Injury
OUT
-
S. Rogers
Questionable Lower-Body Injury
OUT
-
H. Cuypers
Questionable Head Injury
OUT
-
L. Barroso
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
J. Bamba
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT