PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio Heroes de San Ramon

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.7%
Odds 2.05
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.03
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.7%
2.05
BTTS Yes
58.8%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.03
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
75.4%
1.08
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.25
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
FC Cajamarca Win 60.7%
Draw 14.2%
Atletico Grau Win 25.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Cajamarca1.29
Atletico Grau1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca
WWDLW
34 GF / 40 GA
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau
WLDWL
16 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.48
Average Goals Scored
0.73
1.74
Average Goals Conceded
1
16
BTTS Yes
6
14
Over 2.5
6
3.36
Shots on Goal
4.05

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca 23 matches
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 22 matches
FC Cajamarca Statistic Atletico Grau
6 Wins 6
6 Draws 5
11 Losses 11
34 Goals For 16
40 Goals Against 22
1.48 Avg Goals Scored 0.73
1.74 Avg Goals Conceded 1
16 BTTS Yes 6
19 Over 1.5 9
14 Over 2.5 6
9 Over 3.5 4
0 Clean Sheets 8
7 Failed To Score 12
3.36 Shots On Goal 4.05
9.59 Total Shots 11.71
2.77 Corners 4.14
43.7% Ball Possession 46.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Atletico Grau. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

FC Cajamarca Analysis

FC Cajamarca sit 15 with 17 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 23:28, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Brandon Palacios (4 goals), Hernán Barcos (3 goals), Mauricio Arrasco (3 goals), with creative support from Sebastián Enciso (3 assists), Hernán Barcos (2 assists), Ricardo Lagos (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Grau Analysis

Atletico Grau sit 16 with 16 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 12:18, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Raúl Ruidíaz (2 goals), Rafael Guarderas (1 goals), Christian Neira (1 goals), with creative support from Rafael Guarderas (2 assists), Raúl Ruidíaz (1 assists), Elsar Rodas (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, FC Cajamarca won 0 times, Atletico Grau won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:1 from FC Cajamarca's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.8%)
Predicted formations: FC Cajamarca 4-4-2 / Atletico Grau 4-4-2
H2H summary: FC Cajamarca wins 0, draws 0, Atletico Grau wins 1
Last matches: FC Cajamarca
16.08.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Universitario
2
3
L
09.08.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
4
2
W
01.08.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sport Huancayo
0
2
L
27.07.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
2
L
17.07.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Juan Pablo II College
2
2
D
31.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima
1
1
D
24.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Alianza Atletico
1
1
D
15.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sporting Cristal
3
1
W
08.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
2
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sport Boys
3
2
W
25.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
UCV Moquegua
1
2
L
22.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Cusco
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
ADT
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Cienciano
0
3
L
13.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
3
4
L
06.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Universitario
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
3
1
W
15.02.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sport Huancayo
0
2
L
Last matches: Atletico Grau
14.08.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Comerciantes Unidos
1
0
W
08.08.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Juan Pablo II College
0
0
D
01.08.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Sport Boys
0
1
L
25.07.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Sport Huancayo
0
2
L
18.07.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
UTC Cajamarca
3
1
W
29.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
UCV Moquegua
1
0
W
23.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Cusco
0
1
L
16.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Universitario
1
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Cienciano
1
2
L
02.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
ADT
0
1
L
26.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
22.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Sporting Cristal
4
1
W
17.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Alianza Atletico
2
2
D
22.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
0
D
15.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
06.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
FC Cajamarca
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Comerciantes Unidos
1
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Juan Pablo II College
1
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Sport Boys
0
1
L
H2H: FC Cajamarca vs Atletico Grau
06.03.26
H2H
Atletico Grau
FC Cajamarca
1
0
L
Last matches: FC Cajamarca
16.08.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Universitario
2
3
L
01.08.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sport Huancayo
0
2
L
17.07.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Juan Pablo II College
2
2
D
31.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima
1
1
D
15.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sporting Cristal
3
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sport Boys
3
2
W
18.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
ADT
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
13.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
3
4
L
21.02.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
3
1
W
09.02.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
1
D
18.01.26
Fri
FC Cajamarca
ADT
2
1
W
Last matches: Atletico Grau
08.08.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Juan Pablo II College
0
0
D
25.07.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Sport Huancayo
0
2
L
23.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Cusco
0
1
L
16.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Universitario
1
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
ADT
0
1
L
17.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Alianza Atletico
2
2
D
15.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
01.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Comerciantes Unidos
1
3
L
14.02.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Sport Boys
0
1
L
30.01.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
UTC Cajamarca
0
2
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.66
Draw 3.14
Home 2.05
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.94
Draw 2.13
Home 2.53
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 1.75 1.37
Over 2.0 1.49
Over 2.25 1.76
Over 2.5 2.03
Over 2.75 2.32
Over 3.0 2.82
Over 3.25 3.16
Under 1.5 3.29
Under 1.75 2.92
Under 2.0 2.51
Under 2.25 2.03
Under 2.5 1.78
Under 2.75 1.59
Under 3.0 1.40
Under 3.25 1.33
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.70
Draw 3.25
Home 2.00
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.33
Draw 2.10
Home 2.75
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.38
Home 2.38
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.5 2.05
Over 3.5 3.50
Over 4.5 8.00
Over 5.5 17.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 1.5 3.25
Under 2.5 1.75
Under 3.5 1.28
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 3.14
Home 2.13
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.40
Draw 1.96
Home 2.76
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.80
Draw 2.36
Home 2.42
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 0.75 1.04
Over 1.0 1.06
Over 1.25 1.19
Over 1.5 1.31
Over 1.75 1.41
Over 2.0 1.53
Over 2.25 1.82
Over 2.5 2.06
Over 2.75 2.33
Over 3.0 2.82
Over 3.25 3.14
Over 3.5 3.42
Over 3.75 4.26
Over 4.0 5.80
Over 4.25 6.15
Over 4.5 6.50
Over 5.5 17.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 7.30
Under 0.75 6.75
Under 1.0 6.20
Under 1.25 3.86
Under 1.5 2.92
Under 1.75 2.66
Under 2.0 2.26
Under 2.25 1.94
Under 2.5 1.72
Under 2.75 1.53
Under 3.0 1.35
Under 3.25 1.29
Under 3.5 1.23
Under 3.75 1.16
Under 4.0 1.07
Under 4.25 1.06
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.30
Draw 3.15
Home 2.16
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.85
Draw 2.10
Home 2.80
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.45
Draw 2.38
Home 2.50
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 1.75 1.45
Over 2.0 1.60
Over 2.25 1.88
Over 2.5 2.14
Over 2.75 2.48
Over 3.0 3.15
Over 3.25 3.50
Over 3.5 3.80
Over 3.75 4.70
Over 4.0 6.40
Under 1.5 2.85
Under 1.75 2.48
Under 2.0 2.14
Under 2.25 1.80
Under 2.5 1.61
Under 2.75 1.45
Under 3.0 1.29
Under 3.25 1.24
Under 3.5 1.21
Under 3.75 1.14
Under 4.0 1.07

Standings

Primera Division: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
D W W D W
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
D L W D L
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
W D L W W
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
W D L D W
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
W D W D W
6 17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
W W L D D
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
W D W W W
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
L D W L W
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
L D L D L
10 17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
L L W D W
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
W D W D L
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
L W L D D
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
D D L L L
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
L D L D L
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
D D W W W
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
W L W L L
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
L D L W L
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
L D L L L
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)