PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi
Referee: E. Ordonez
FBC Melgar
Match Timeline
UTC Cajamarca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
31'
Joshua Cantt
UTC Cajamarca
VAR
42'
Javier Salas
FBC Melgar
🟨
45+4'
Alec Deneumostier
FBC Melgar
🔄
60'
L. Guzman ↔ J. Caceres
FBC Melgar
🔄
67'
A. Munoz ↔ A. Arroyo
UTC Cajamarca
🟨
70'
Dylan Caro
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
71'
M. Zegarra ↔ B. Cuesta
FBC Melgar
🔄
73'
D. Dioses ↔ L. Garro
UTC Cajamarca
74'
B. Cuesta · Assist: J. Vidales
FBC Melgar
78'
N. Quagliata
FBC Melgar
🔄
79'
J. Cantt ↔ J. Nunez
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
79'
D. Camacho ↔ M. Rasmussen
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
79'
G. Paredes ↔ S. Galvez
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
83'
N. Cabanillas ↔ A. Ramos
FBC Melgar
🔄
83'
N. Quagliata ↔ J. D'Arrigo
FBC Melgar
🔄
83'
J. Salas ↔ G. Bernaola
FBC Melgar

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 94.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
94.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
69.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FBC Melgar Win 56.7%
Draw 14.8%
UTC Cajamarca Win 28.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
FBC Melgar1.5
UTC Cajamarca1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
WWDLW
24 GF / 20 GA
UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca
WLDWL
20 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.6
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
10
BTTS Yes
9
10
Over 2.5
7
3.67
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 15 matches
UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 14 matches
FBC Melgar Statistic UTC Cajamarca
7 Wins 5
2 Draws 5
6 Losses 4
24 Goals For 20
20 Goals Against 19
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
10 BTTS Yes 9
13 Over 1.5 11
10 Over 2.5 7
6 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 2
3.67 Shots On Goal 5
12.33 Total Shots 12.92
4.58 Corners 4.25
51.1% Ball Possession 50.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with FBC Melgar's more proactive style and UTC Cajamarca's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward UTC Cajamarca. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

FBC Melgar Analysis

FBC Melgar sit 7 with 17 points after 12 league matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 18:16 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Vidales (5 goals), B. Cuesta (3 goals), M. Zegarra (3 goals), with creative support from N. Quagliata (4 assists), M. Zegarra (3 assists), B. Cuesta (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

UTC Cajamarca Analysis

UTC Cajamarca are currently 8 in the standings with 16 points from 12 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, while the 18:18 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Marlon de Jesús (4 goals), D. Camacho (3 goals), A. Arroyo (2 goals), with creative support from M. Lliuya (2 assists), A. Munoz (2 assists), M. Rasmussen (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, FBC Melgar won 7 times, UTC Cajamarca won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:13 from FBC Melgar's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.2%)
Predicted formations: FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1 / UTC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: FBC Melgar wins 7, draws 4, UTC Cajamarca wins 3
Stats
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
0
11 Corner Kicks 1
9 Fouls 10
6 Offsides 0
63% Ball Possession 37%
20 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Goal 2
6 Shots off Goal 4
7 Blocked Shots 0
8 Shots insidebox 3
12 Shots outsidebox 3
2 Goalkeeper Saves 5
549 Total passes 329
492 Passes accurate 265
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

FBC Melgar
Formation
UTC Cajamarca
J. Cabezudo
J. Cabezudo
M. Lazo
M. Lazo
J. Escobar
J. Escobar
A. Deneumostier
A. Deneumostier
N. Cabanillas
N. Cabanillas
W. Tandazo
W. Tandazo
J. Salas
J. Salas
L. Guzman
L. Guzman
N. Quagliata
N. Quagliata
M. Zegarra
M. Zegarra
J. Vidales
🎯
J. Vidales
I. Barrios
I. Barrios
G. Paredes
G. Paredes
M. Ganoza
M. Ganoza
F. Cavagna
F. Cavagna
D. Caro
D. Caro
D. Dioses
D. Dioses
A. Figuera
A. Figuera
J. Cantt
J. Cantt
D. Camacho
D. Camacho
A. Munoz
A. Munoz
M. Lliuya
M. Lliuya
FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
21
J. Cabezudo
G
33
M. Lazo
D
23
J. Escobar
D
5
A. Deneumostier
🟨 45+4'
D
27
N. Cabanillas
↓ 83'
D
24
W. Tandazo
M
6
J. Salas
↓ 83'
M
8
L. Guzman
↓ 60'
M
10
N. Quagliata
⚽ 78' ↓ 83'
M
45
M. Zegarra
↓ 71'
M
11
J. Vidales
🎯 74'
F
Substitutes
12
C. Caceda
G
9
B. Cuesta
⚽ 74' ↑ 71'
F
4
A. Ramos
↑ 83'
D
17
J. De Santis
F
80
J. D'Arrigo
↑ 83'
M
16
J. Caceres
↑ 60'
M
22
P. Erustes
F
14
Y. Gamero
M
20
G. Bernaola
↑ 83'
UTC Cajamarca 4-3-3
Starting XI
29
I. Barrios
G
35
G. Paredes
↓ 79'
D
3
M. Ganoza
D
6
F. Cavagna
D
13
D. Caro
🟨 70'
D
8
D. Dioses
↓ 73'
M
16
A. Figuera
M
15
J. Cantt
↓ 79' 🟨 31'
M
22
D. Camacho
↓ 79'
F
19
A. Munoz
↓ 67'
F
10
M. Lliuya
F
Substitutes
21
R. Bettocchi
9
M. de Jesus
F
17
L. Garro
↑ 73'
D
7
J. Nunez
↑ 79'
88
L. Arce
M
14
M. Rasmussen
↑ 79'
F
11
A. Arroyo
↑ 67'
F
18
S. Galvez
↑ 79'
F
Last matches: FBC Melgar
18.06.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
17.06.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
31.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
3
1
W
22.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Juan Pablo II College
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Huancayo
4
1
W
10.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Comerciantes Unidos
1
1
D
28.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Universitario
2
1
W
15.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Boys
3
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cusco
1
3
L
20.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
ADT
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Atletico Grau
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
1
3
L
27.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
FC Cajamarca
1
3
L
15.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
4
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
31.01.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
2
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
Macara
2
1
W
20.01.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
Universitario
2
3
L
Last matches: UTC Cajamarca
31.05.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2
2
D
23.05.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Sport Boys
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
2
L
08.05.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
FC Cajamarca
1
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Cienciano
2
2
D
19.04.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Sporting Cristal
2
3
L
15.04.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Sport Huancayo
2
2
D
05.04.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Juan Pablo II College
1
2
L
22.03.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Alianza Atletico
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Universitario
0
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
2
1
W
28.02.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
ADT
2
2
D
13.02.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Cusco
1
0
W
06.02.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
UCV Moquegua
3
2
W
30.01.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Atletico Grau
2
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
UTC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
1
1
D
21.01.26
Fri
UTC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
1
0
W
H2H: FBC Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca
03.05.26
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
19.07.25
H2H
UTC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
1
2
W
08.02.25
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
3
0
W
22.10.24
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
1
0
W
12.05.24
H2H
UTC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
2
6
W
15.08.23
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
1
1
D
18.03.23
H2H
UTC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
29.07.22
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
1
0
W
04.03.22
H2H
UTC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
3
1
L
17.08.21
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
0
1
L
15.04.21
H2H
UTC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
3
1
L
16.08.20
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
0
0
D
28.02.20
H2H
UTC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
17.08.19
H2H
UTC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
0
2
W
21.03.19
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
1
1
D
Last matches: FBC Melgar
31.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
3
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Huancayo
4
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Universitario
2
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cusco
1
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Atletico Grau
0
0
D
27.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
2
L
15.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
4
0
W
31.01.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
2
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
Macara
2
1
W
17.01.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
2
0
W
H2H at home: FBC Melgar
03.05.26
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
08.02.25
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
3
0
W
22.10.24
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
1
0
W
15.08.23
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
1
1
D
29.07.22
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
1
0
W
17.08.21
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
0
1
L
16.08.20
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
0
0
D
21.03.19
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
1
1
D
Last matches: UTC Cajamarca
31.05.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2
2
D
17.05.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Sporting Cristal
2
3
L
05.04.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Juan Pablo II College
1
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Universitario
0
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
2
1
W
22.02.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
ADT
2
2
D
06.02.26
Pri
UTC Cajamarca
UCV Moquegua
3
2
W
21.01.26
Fri
UTC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
1
0
W
H2H away: UTC Cajamarca
03.05.26
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
L
08.02.25
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
3
0
L
22.10.24
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
1
0
L
15.08.23
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
1
1
D
29.07.22
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
1
0
L
17.08.21
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
0
1
W
16.08.20
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
0
0
D
21.03.19
H2H
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
1
1
D

Standings

Primera Division: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
?
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
?
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
?
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
?
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
?
6 17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
?
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
?
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
?
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
?
10 17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
?
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
?
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
?
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
?
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
?
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
?
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
?
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
?
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
?
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)