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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
13.10.2026 19:00
Bet365 Stadium

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Stoke City Win 55.1%
Draw 4.9%
Middlesbrough Win 40%
Expected Goals (xG)
Stoke City1.49
Middlesbrough1.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
Stoke City Stoke City
WWDLW
16 GF / 15 GA
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough
WLDWL
21 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.91
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.73
8
BTTS Yes
10
6
Over 2.5
8
4
Shots on Goal
5.13

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Stoke City Stoke City 12 matches
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 11 matches
Stoke City Statistic Middlesbrough
5 Wins 4
3 Draws 5
4 Losses 2
16 Goals For 21
15 Goals Against 19
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.91
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.73
8 BTTS Yes 10
9 Over 1.5 10
6 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 0
4 Shots On Goal 5.13
12.13 Total Shots 17.5
4.5 Corners 5.75
46.5% Ball Possession 60.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Middlesbrough. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Stoke City come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Stoke City expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Middlesbrough in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Middlesbrough having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Stoke City Analysis

So far, Stoke City have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 13 points from 8 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 13:12 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking weight is carried by E. Bocat (2 goals), E. Galbraith (2 goals), S. Gallagher (2 goals), with creative support from E. Bocat (2 assists), E. Galbraith (1 assists), S. Gallagher (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Middlesbrough Analysis

Placed 3 with 15 points from 8 outings, Middlesbrough continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 16:12 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through W. Lankshear (6 goals), A. Cozier-Duberry (2 goals), S. Berhalter (2 goals), with creative support from L. Ayling (2 assists), T. Conway (2 assists), A. Cozier-Duberry (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Stoke City won 4 times, Middlesbrough won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:20 from Stoke City's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: Stoke City 3-5-2 / Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Stoke City wins 4, draws 4, Middlesbrough wins 7

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 5 2 1 13:6 7 17
W W L D W
2 8 4 3 1 22:11 11 15
D W W W W
3 8 4 3 1 16:12 4 15
D D W W D
4 7 4 2 1 15:10 5 14
W W D L W
5 8 4 2 2 10:8 2 14
L D W W D
6 8 3 4 1 10:7 3 13
D D D L W
7 8 4 1 3 13:12 1 13
W W D W W
8 8 4 1 3 11:12 -1 13
W L L W W
9 8 3 3 2 7:10 -3 12
L D D L D
10 8 2 5 1 12:11 1 11
D W L D D
11 8 3 2 3 15:15 0 11
D D L W L
12 8 3 2 3 7:8 -1 11
L W W D D
13 8 4 2 2 19:10 9 10
L W W D D
14 8 2 4 2 9:12 -3 10
W L D D W
15 8 3 1 4 11:15 -4 10
W W L L L
16 8 2 3 3 12:12 0 9
D W L L D
17 8 3 0 5 16:17 -1 9
L L W W L
18 8 2 3 3 9:11 -2 9
L L W L W
19 7 2 2 3 9:10 -1 8
D D W L L
20 8 2 2 4 7:10 -3 8
L L W L L
21 8 1 4 3 10:12 -2 7
W L D L L
22 8 1 2 5 7:14 -7 5
D L L L W
23 8 1 1 6 8:15 -7 4
D L L W L
24 8 0 4 4 9:17 -8 4
D L D L D
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One