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06.09.2026 23:30
Estadio de la UNSA
Referee: R. Segura
FBC Melgar
Match Timeline
ADT
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
45'
B. Cuesta · Assist: N. Cabanillas
FBC Melgar
⚽
63'
B. Cuesta · Assist: N. Quagliata
FBC Melgar
🔄
68'
B. Cuesta ↔ J. D'Arrigo
FBC Melgar
🔄
73'
J. Bauman ↔ H. Rengifo
ADT
🔄
73'
J. Rojas ↔ S. Peralta
ADT
🔄
73'
J. Lucumi ↔ A. Mazzo
ADT
🔄
75'
N. Cabanillas ↔ Jesus Alcantar
FBC Melgar
🔄
75'
N. Quagliata ↔ M. Portillo
FBC Melgar
🔄
75'
C. Bordacahar ↔ F. Zanelatto
FBC Melgar
⚽
82'
Jesus Alcantar
FBC Melgar
🔄
83'
H. Benincasa ↔ J. Reyes
ADT
🔄
83'
J. J. Canela Torres ↔ J. Garcilazo
ADT
🔄
84'
K. Minda ↔ L. Guzman
FBC Melgar
🟨
86'
Leonel González
FBC Melgar
🟨
89'
Hernán Rengifo
ADT

FBC Melgar vs ADT Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 83.8%
Odds 1.35
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds 1.66
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
83.8%
1.35 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
2.00 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
1.66 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.91 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
FBC Melgar Win 83.8%
Draw 5%
ADT Win 11.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
FBC Melgar1.58
ADT1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
WWDLW
47 GF / 33 GA
ADT ADT
WLDWL
28 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.62
Average Goals Scored
1.12
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
19
BTTS Yes
14
16
Over 2.5
12
4.75
Shots on Goal
4.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 29 matches
ADT ADT 25 matches
FBC Melgar Statistic ADT
13 Wins 5
8 Draws 7
8 Losses 13
47 Goals For 28
33 Goals Against 38
1.62 Avg Goals Scored 1.12
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
19 BTTS Yes 14
24 Over 1.5 18
16 Over 2.5 12
10 Over 3.5 8
8 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 6
4.75 Shots On Goal 4.67
14.79 Total Shots 12.88
4.88 Corners 4.58
55% Ball Possession 54.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by FBC Melgar's more proactive style and ADT's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. ADT arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. FBC Melgar arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 39 points compared to ADT in 17 on 22, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward ADT. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

FBC Melgar Analysis

FBC Melgar arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 39 points after 23 matches. The record of 11 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 40:27 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Jhonny Vidales (8 goals), Bernardo Cuesta (5 goals), Nicolás Quagliata (4 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Quagliata (7 assists), Bernardo Cuesta (3 assists), Matías Zegarra (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

ADT Analysis

With 22 points from 23 games and a place of 17, ADT still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 26:33, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Jonathan Bauman (4 goals), Jordan Guivin (3 goals), Joao Rojas (2 goals), with creative support from Carlos Cabello (3 assists), Joao Rojas (2 assists), John Narváez (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, FBC Melgar won 4 times, ADT won 0 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:6 from FBC Melgar's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.78 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1 / ADT 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: FBC Melgar wins 4, draws 5, ADT wins 0

Standings

Primera Division: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
D W W D W
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
D L W D L
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
W D L W W
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
W D L D W
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
W D W D W
6 17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
W W L D D
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
W D W W W
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
L D W L W
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
L D L D L
10
ADT Away
17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
L L W D W
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
W D W D L
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
L W L D D
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
D D L L L
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
L D L D L
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
D D W W W
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
W L W L L
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
L D L W L
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
L D L L L
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)