JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
City Light Stadium
Referee: R. Tanimoto
Fagiano Okayama
Match Timeline
Cerezo Osaka
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
8'
Y. Yokoyama · Assist: D. Cools
Cerezo Osaka
🟨
37'
Ayumu Ohata
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
54'
T. Kimura ↔ Leo Gaucho
Fagiano Okayama
56'
Y. Yokoyama · Assist: M. Nakajima
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
61'
T. Yamane ↔ M. Matsumoto
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
61'
Werik Popo ↔ Lucao
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
61'
K. Ogura ↔ J. Nishikawa
Fagiano Okayama
🟨
62'
Thiago Andrade
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
64'
Y. Yokoyama ↔ S. Homma
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
64'
Thiago Andrade ↔ S. Sakuragawa
Cerezo Osaka
71'
Leo Gaucho · Assist: Lucao
Fagiano Okayama
VAR
73'
Lucão
Fagiano Okayama
🟨
77'
Yoshitake Suzuki
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
80'
M. Nakajima ↔ K. Yoshino
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
80'
M. Shibayama ↔ S. Uejo
Cerezo Osaka
81'
S. Uejo · Assist: S. Sakuragawa
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
83'
Y. Suzuki ↔ R. Takeuchi
Fagiano Okayama
🟨
85'
Hiroshi Omori
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
90+3'
A. Ohata ↔ H. Tanaka
Cerezo Osaka
90'
Leo Gaucho
Fagiano Okayama

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 63.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
63.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Fagiano Okayama Win 56.8%
Draw 8.2%
Cerezo Osaka Win 35%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fagiano Okayama1.16
Cerezo Osaka1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama
WWDLW
22 GF / 23 GA
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka
WLDWL
24 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
11
BTTS Yes
10
7
Over 2.5
9
3.24
Shots on Goal
4.24

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 18 matches
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 18 matches
Fagiano Okayama Statistic Cerezo Osaka
6 Wins 6
6 Draws 6
6 Losses 6
22 Goals For 24
23 Goals Against 19
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
11 BTTS Yes 10
14 Over 1.5 13
7 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 2
5 Clean Sheets 6
2 Failed To Score 5
3.24 Shots On Goal 4.24
11.35 Total Shots 11.12
4.94 Corners 4.94
40.5% Ball Possession 50.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Cerezo Osaka's more proactive style and Fagiano Okayama's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Cerezo Osaka. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fagiano Okayama expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Cerezo Osaka in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cerezo Osaka having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Fagiano Okayama Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 26 points from 17 games, Fagiano Okayama bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 8 wins, 0 draws, and 9 defeats, together with goals at 24:26, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through A. Esaka (3 goals), Takaya Kimura (3 goals), Werik Popo (3 goals), with creative support from A. Esaka (3 assists), K. Shirai (3 assists), Werik Popo (2 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cerezo Osaka Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 28 points from 17 games, Cerezo Osaka bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 10 wins, 0 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 27:19, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by S. Sakuragawa (6 goals), Thiago Andrade (6 goals), Shunta Tanaka (4 goals), with creative support from M. Shibayama (5 assists), Motohiko Nakajima (3 assists), Nelson Ishiwatari (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Fagiano Okayama won 1 times, Cerezo Osaka won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:15 from Fagiano Okayama's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.78 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.8%)
Predicted formations: Fagiano Okayama 3-4-2-1 / Cerezo Osaka 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Fagiano Okayama wins 1, draws 2, Cerezo Osaka wins 6
Stats
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
2
8 Corner Kicks 3
17 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 2
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Goal 6
6 Shots off Goal 6
4 Blocked Shots 2
12 Shots insidebox 11
6 Shots outsidebox 3
3 Goalkeeper Saves 6
313 Total passes 320
217 Passes accurate 226
2.63 expected_goals 2.29
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Fagiano Okayama
Formation
Cerezo Osaka
T. Hamada
T. Hamada
H. Omori
H. Omori
Y. Tatsuta
Y. Tatsuta
Y. Suzuki
Y. Suzuki
K. Shirai
K. Shirai
E. Miyamoto
E. Miyamoto
K. Ogura
K. Ogura
T. Yamane
T. Yamane
T. Kimura
T. Kimura
A. Esaka
A. Esaka
Werik Popo
Werik Popo
K. Nakamura
K. Nakamura
D. Cools
🎯
D. Cools
R. Inoue
R. Inoue
S. Hatanaka
S. Hatanaka
A. Ohata
A. Ohata
N. Ishiwatari
N. Ishiwatari
S. Tanaka
S. Tanaka
M. Shibayama
M. Shibayama
M. Nakajima
🎯
M. Nakajima
Y. Yokoyama
⚽ 2
Y. Yokoyama
Thiago Andrade
Thiago Andrade
Fagiano Okayama 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
52
T. Hamada
G
6
H. Omori
🟨 85'
D
48
Y. Tatsuta
D
43
Y. Suzuki
↓ 83' 🟨 77'
D
51
K. Shirai
M
41
E. Miyamoto
M
5
K. Ogura
↓ 61'
M
88
T. Yamane
↓ 61'
M
27
T. Kimura
↓ 54'
F
8
A. Esaka
F
98
Werik Popo
↓ 61'
F
Substitutes
1
L. Moser
G
28
M. Matsumoto
↑ 61'
M
7
R. Takeuchi
↑ 83'
M
99
Lucao
🎯 71' ↑ 61'
F
66
J. Nishikawa
↑ 61'
M
17
R. Sueyoshi
M
45
N. Browne
M
9
Leo Gaucho
⚽ 71' ⚽ 90' ↑ 54'
26
H. Motoyama
D
Cerezo Osaka 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
23
K. Nakamura
G
27
D. Cools
🎯 8'
D
4
R. Inoue
D
44
S. Hatanaka
D
66
A. Ohata
↓ 90+3' 🟨 37'
D
18
N. Ishiwatari
M
10
S. Tanaka
M
48
M. Shibayama
↓ 80'
M
13
M. Nakajima
🎯 56' ↓ 80'
M
14
Y. Yokoyama
⚽ 8' ⚽ 56' ↓ 64'
M
11
Thiago Andrade
↓ 64' 🟨 62'
F
Substitutes
21
Kim Jin-Hyeon
G
8
S. Kagawa
M
6
K. Noborizato
D
19
S. Homma
↑ 64'
M
35
K. Yoshino
↑ 80'
M
7
S. Uejo
⚽ 81' ↑ 80'
M
9
S. Sakuragawa
🎯 81' ↑ 64'
F
3
H. Tanaka
↑ 90+3'
D
26
E. Kubo
M
Last matches: Fagiano Okayama
06.06.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Urawa
2
0
W
31.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Urawa
1
1
D
17.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
2
0
W
10.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Vissel Kobe
3
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
V-varen Nagasaki
1
2
L
02.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
0
W
29.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
25.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Avispa Fukuoka
2
0
W
19.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Gamba Osaka
2
2
D
11.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Kyoto Sanga
1
5
L
05.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Vissel Kobe
1
4
L
21.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
L
18.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
08.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Kyoto Sanga
1
0
W
01.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
22.02.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Gamba Osaka
1
2
L
14.02.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
1
D
08.02.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Avispa Fukuoka
1
1
D
20.01.26
Fri
Fagiano Okayama
Kashima
0
1
L
Last matches: Cerezo Osaka
06.06.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
3
1
W
30.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
2
2
D
17.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
6
1
W
09.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
3
2
W
06.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
03.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka
1
1
D
29.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Vissel Kobe
0
0
D
25.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
2
L
18.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
3
0
W
11.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Gamba Osaka
1
0
W
04.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
0
3
L
22.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Vissel Kobe
1
1
D
18.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
1
2
L
14.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
2
1
W
07.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
0
0
D
28.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
L
22.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
2
L
15.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka
2
0
W
08.02.26
Fri
Cerezo Osaka
TIAMO Hirakata
1
2
L
07.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Gamba Osaka
0
0
D
H2H: Fagiano Okayama vs Cerezo Osaka
24.05.26
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
2
3
L
18.03.26
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
1
2
W
18.10.25
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
1
2
L
02.04.25
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
2
1
L
04.12.16
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
1
0
L
16.10.16
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
1
1
D
28.05.16
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
2
1
L
22.07.15
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
2
1
L
21.03.15
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
1
1
D
Last matches: Fagiano Okayama
31.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Urawa
1
1
D
17.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
2
0
W
02.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
0
W
25.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Avispa Fukuoka
2
0
W
05.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Vissel Kobe
1
4
L
21.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
L
08.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Kyoto Sanga
1
0
W
01.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
22.02.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Gamba Osaka
1
2
L
H2H at home: Fagiano Okayama
24.05.26
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
2
3
L
18.10.25
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
1
2
L
16.10.16
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
1
1
D
21.03.15
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
1
1
D
Last matches: Cerezo Osaka
06.06.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
3
1
W
06.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
29.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Vissel Kobe
0
0
D
25.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
2
L
11.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Gamba Osaka
1
0
W
04.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
0
3
L
14.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
2
1
W
28.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
L
15.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka
2
0
W
H2H away: Cerezo Osaka
24.05.26
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
2
3
W
18.10.25
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
1
2
W
16.10.16
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
1
1
D
21.03.15
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
1
1
D

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)