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PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
20.09.2026 17:00
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
Referee: Pedro Ramalho, Portugal
Estoril
Match Timeline
Casa Pia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
27'
Henrique Araújo
Casa Pia
🟨
41'
Ismael Sierra Arnal
Estoril
🔄
46'
A. Camblan ↔ J. Arnolin
Estoril
🔄
46'
H. Araujo ↔ A. Jatta
Casa Pia
🔄
60'
N. Omerovic ↔ R. Guitane
Estoril
🔄
60'
M. Robin ↔ A. Tsoungui
Estoril
🟨
62'
David Sousa
Casa Pia
🔄
65'
M. Salah ↔ E. Maurin
Casa Pia
🔄
65'
JP ↔ B. Pauwels
Casa Pia
⚽
70'
R. Sanchez · Assist: J. Holsgrove
Estoril
⚽
72'
S. Clua · Assist: L. Ofori
Casa Pia
🔄
74'
S. Clua ↔ S. Perez
Casa Pia
🔄
80'
J. Carvalho ↔ A. Lacximicant
Estoril
🔄
80'
X. Sintes ↔ P. Carvalho
Estoril
🟨
82'
Yanis Begraoui
Estoril
🟨
85'
Jordan Arnolin
Estoril
🔄
87'
J. Rego ↔ A. Dafe
Casa Pia
⚽
89'
B. Pauwels · Assist: S. Perez
Casa Pia
🟨
90+5'
Alassana Jatta
Casa Pia

Estoril vs Casa Pia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.6%
Odds 1.71
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 1.78
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.6%
1.71 ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
2.00 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
1.78 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.8%
1.33 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.62 ▥
Correct Score 3-0
-
13.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Estoril Win 69.6%
Draw 20.9%
Casa Pia Win 9.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Estoril1.38
Casa Pia0.78
Recent Form (Last 5)
Estoril Estoril
WWDLW
6 GF / 11 GA
Casa Pia Casa Pia
WLDWL
5 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
0.6
Average Goals Scored
0.56
1.1
Average Goals Conceded
2.56
3
BTTS Yes
3
2
Over 2.5
4
4.17
Shots on Goal
2.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Estoril Estoril 10 matches
Casa Pia Casa Pia 9 matches
Estoril Statistic Casa Pia
1 Wins 1
4 Draws 1
5 Losses 7
6 Goals For 5
11 Goals Against 23
0.6 Avg Goals Scored 0.56
1.1 Avg Goals Conceded 2.56
3 BTTS Yes 3
7 Over 1.5 5
2 Over 2.5 4
0 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 1
6 Failed To Score 6
4.17 Shots On Goal 2.67
12.5 Total Shots 10.17
4.5 Corners 4.17
44.8% Ball Possession 44.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Casa Pia.

Estoril Analysis

With 2 points from 5 games and a place of 17, Estoril still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats with a 2:7 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Y. Begraoui (2 goals), with creative support from Fernando Medrano (1 assists), Pedro Carvalho (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Casa Pia Analysis

With 1 points from 6 games and a place of 18, Casa Pia still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats with a 1:15 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Henrique Araújo (1 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Estoril won 6 times, Casa Pia won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:9 from Estoril's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (90.5%)
Predicted formations: Estoril 4-2-3-1 / Casa Pia 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Estoril wins 6, draws 5, Casa Pia wins 1

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 7 0 0 18:3 15 21
W W W W W
2 7 5 1 1 22:7 15 16
L W W W W
3 7 4 3 0 17:8 9 15
D D W W W
4 7 4 3 0 11:4 7 15
D W W D W
5 7 3 2 2 10:7 3 11
D L D W L
6 6 3 2 1 7:5 2 11
D W L W W
7 7 3 2 2 9:9 0 11
W W W L D
8 7 2 4 1 14:14 0 10
L D W D W
9 6 2 2 2 5:5 0 8
D L L D W
10 7 2 2 3 9:11 -2 8
W W L D L
11 7 2 2 3 8:12 -4 8
D L L L D
12 7 2 2 3 8:14 -6 8
D W L L W
13 7 1 4 2 9:7 2 7
W D D D L
14 7 1 2 4 5:8 -3 5
D L D L W
15 7 1 1 5 7:15 -8 4
L L L L L
16 7 1 1 5 5:15 -10 4
L D L L W
17 7 1 1 5 3:16 -13 4
W L D L L
18 7 0 2 5 3:10 -7 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2