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IRELAND › PREMIER DIVISION
02.10.2026 18:45
Oriel Park
Dundalk
Match Timeline
Bohemians
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
26'
C. Whelan
Bohemians
🟨
28'
Connor Parsons
Bohemians
🟨
49'
Harvey Warren
Dundalk
🟨
54'
Senan Mullen
Bohemians
🔄
54'
H. Warren ↔ E. Vassenin
Dundalk
🔄
62'
H. Vaughan ↔ Z. Myers
Bohemians
🔄
62'
S. Mullen ↔ S. Diallo
Bohemians
🔄
62'
C. Whelan ↔ D. James-Taylor
Bohemians
⚽
67'
R. Tierney · Assist: P. Hickey
Bohemians
🔄
72'
L. Gaxha ↔ D. McDaid
Dundalk
🔄
72'
A. Dervin ↔ N. Garbett
Dundalk
🔄
72'
T. Clarke ↔ C. Dillon
Dundalk
🔄
77'
C. Parsons ↔ D. Rooney
Bohemians
🔄
81'
D. Power ↔ N. Morahan
Bohemians
🔄
83'
R. Teahan ↔ H. Groome
Dundalk
⚽
88'
D. Horgan
Dundalk
🟥
89'
Cian Byrne
Bohemians

Dundalk vs Bohemians Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 75.5%
Odds 1.83
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.52
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
75.5%
1.83 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.50 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.52 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.15 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Dundalk Win 14.6%
Draw 9.9%
Bohemians Win 75.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Dundalk1.45
Bohemians1.7
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dundalk Dundalk
WWDLW
55 GF / 56 GA
Bohemians Bohemians
WLDWL
76 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.62
Average Goals Scored
1.73
1.65
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
26
BTTS Yes
28
22
Over 2.5
26
4.97
Shots on Goal
4.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Dundalk Dundalk 34 matches
Bohemians Bohemians 44 matches
Dundalk Statistic Bohemians
11 Wins 21
11 Draws 12
12 Losses 11
55 Goals For 76
56 Goals Against 53
1.62 Avg Goals Scored 1.73
1.65 Avg Goals Conceded 1.2
26 BTTS Yes 28
31 Over 1.5 35
22 Over 2.5 26
14 Over 3.5 16
5 Clean Sheets 14
3 Failed To Score 7
4.97 Shots On Goal 4.8
15.53 Total Shots 14.43
5.63 Corners 5.51
50.8% Ball Possession 53.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Bohemians's more proactive style and Dundalk's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Bohemians. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Bohemians look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Dundalk Analysis

Dundalk sit 5 with 41 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 11 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 49:53 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on D. Horgan (8 goals), Tyreke Wilson (4 goals), G. Arubi (4 goals), with creative support from D. Horgan (4 assists), Eoin Kenny (3 assists), Tyreke Wilson (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Bohemians Analysis

Bohemians approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 56 points after 31 outings. They have recorded 16 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, with a 55:37 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on C. Whelan (6 goals), D. James-Taylor (5 goals), R. Tierney (5 goals), with creative support from D. Devoy (4 assists), H. Vaughan (4 assists), C. Whelan (3 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Dundalk won 6 times, Bohemians won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:20 from Dundalk's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.1%)
Predicted formations: Dundalk 4-2-3-1 / Bohemians 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Dundalk wins 6, draws 4, Bohemians wins 5

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 18 8 6 52:32 20 62
W W L D D
2 32 17 8 7 52:25 27 59
W W W L W
3 32 17 8 7 57:38 19 59
W W W W W
4 33 10 13 10 47:46 1 43
W D W L L
5 32 9 14 9 45:42 3 41
W D W D L
6 33 10 11 12 50:55 -5 41
L L L D W
7 32 9 11 12 42:48 -6 38
D L W L D
8 32 7 13 12 44:54 -10 34
L D D W D
9 33 8 10 15 39:54 -15 34
L L W W L
10 33 5 8 20 25:59 -34 23
L L L L L
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation