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IRELAND › PREMIER DIVISION
22.05.2026 19:00
Weavers Park
Referee: R. Hennessey
Drogheda United
Match Timeline
Dundalk
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
Shane Tracey
Dundalk
⚽
18'
G. Arubi · Assist: A. Dervin
Dundalk
🔄
29'
W. Davis ↔ K. Cruise
Drogheda United
🟨
40'
Mark Doyle
Drogheda United
🔄
46'
D. Horgan ↔ L. Gaxha
Dundalk
🟨
54'
Bobby Burns
Dundalk
⚽
57'
L. Burney · Assist: B. Kavanagh
Drogheda United
🔄
63'
S. Tracey ↔ K. Buckley
Dundalk
🔄
71'
D. McDaid ↔ D. Mullen
Dundalk
🔄
74'
S. Farrell ↔ E. O'Brien
Drogheda United
🟨
81'
Kieran Cruise
Drogheda United
🔄
82'
R. Brennan ↔ J. Godden
Drogheda United
🟨
83'
Brandon Kavanagh
Drogheda United
🟨
90+4'
Ethan O'Brien
Drogheda United

Drogheda United vs Dundalk Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 85.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
85.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Drogheda United Win 37.4%
Draw 14.4%
Dundalk Win 48.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Drogheda United1.39
Dundalk1.69
Recent Form (Last 5)
Drogheda United Drogheda United
WWDLW
26 GF / 31 GA
Dundalk Dundalk
WLDWL
34 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
1.79
1.55
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
14
BTTS Yes
13
11
Over 2.5
12
3.59
Shots on Goal
6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Drogheda United Drogheda United 20 matches
Dundalk Dundalk 19 matches
Drogheda United Statistic Dundalk
6 Wins 7
6 Draws 7
8 Losses 5
26 Goals For 34
31 Goals Against 29
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 1.79
1.55 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53
14 BTTS Yes 13
15 Over 1.5 17
11 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 9
6 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 2
3.59 Shots On Goal 6
9.76 Total Shots 16
4 Corners 6.24
39% Ball Possession 50.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Dundalk's more proactive style and Drogheda United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Dundalk.

Drogheda United Analysis

Drogheda United sit 8 with 19 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats with a 21:28 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Doyle (7 goals), Conor Keeley (3 goals), W. Davis (3 goals), with creative support from B. Kavanagh (2 assists), K. Cruise (2 assists), Conor Keeley (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Dundalk Analysis

With 25 points from 17 games and a place of 4, Dundalk still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 4 defeats with a 28:26 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on D. Horgan (5 goals), G. Arubi (4 goals), Declan McDaid (3 goals), with creative support from D. Horgan (5 assists), G. Arubi (3 assists), E. Kenny (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Drogheda United won 3 times, Dundalk won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:21 from Drogheda United's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.6%)
Predicted formations: Drogheda United 4-2-3-1 / Dundalk 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Drogheda United wins 3, draws 5, Dundalk wins 6

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 18 8 6 52:32 20 62
W W L D D
2 32 17 8 7 52:25 27 59
W W W L W
3 32 17 8 7 57:38 19 59
W W W W W
4 33 10 13 10 47:46 1 43
W D W L L
5 32 9 14 9 45:42 3 41
W D W D L
6 33 10 11 12 50:55 -5 41
L L L D W
7 32 9 11 12 42:48 -6 38
D L W L D
8 32 7 13 12 44:54 -10 34
L D D W D
9 33 8 10 15 39:54 -15 34
L L W W L
10 33 5 8 20 25:59 -34 23
L L L L L
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation