Login Register
BRAZIL › SERIE B
11.10.2026 21:30
Arena Pantanal

Cuiaba vs Avai Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 81.3%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
81.3%
- ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 3-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cuiaba Win 81.3%
Draw 4.4%
Avai Win 14.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cuiaba1.16
Avai0.91
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cuiaba Cuiaba
WWDLW
32 GF / 25 GA
Avai Avai
WLDWL
30 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.03
Average Goals Scored
0.97
0.81
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
11
BTTS Yes
15
8
Over 2.5
14
4.23
Shots on Goal
3.16

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cuiaba Cuiaba 31 matches
Avai Avai 31 matches
Cuiaba Statistic Avai
11 Wins 8
13 Draws 6
7 Losses 17
32 Goals For 30
25 Goals Against 42
1.03 Avg Goals Scored 0.97
0.81 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
11 BTTS Yes 15
20 Over 1.5 21
8 Over 2.5 14
3 Over 3.5 5
13 Clean Sheets 7
12 Failed To Score 11
4.23 Shots On Goal 3.16
13.42 Total Shots 11.06
5.23 Corners 3.77
48.2% Ball Possession 46.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Cuiaba's more proactive style and Avai's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Avai. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Avai arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cuiaba expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Avai in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Avai having the stronger overall control.

Cuiaba Analysis

So far, Cuiaba have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 46 points from 31 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 13 draws, and 7 losses, while the 32:25 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Kauan (5 goals), João Basso (2 goals), Fábio Gomes (2 goals), with creative support from Pepê (3 assists), Eliel (3 assists), Kauan (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Avai Analysis

Avai approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 30 points from 31 matches. The overall return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 17 defeats with a 30:42 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Daniel Penha (5 goals), Walace dos Santos França (3 goals), Jean Lucas (2 goals), with creative support from Jean Lucas (5 assists), Thayllon Roberth (2 assists), Daniel Penha (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Cuiaba won 4 times, Avai won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:7 from Cuiaba's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.29 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Cuiaba 3-4-2-1 / Avai 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cuiaba wins 4, draws 1, Avai wins 2

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 17 6 8 44:31 13 57
W W W D W
2 31 16 8 7 35:19 16 56
W W L L W
3 31 15 9 7 52:27 25 54
W D L D W
4 31 15 8 8 33:27 6 53
W W L L L
5 31 14 11 6 36:27 9 53
D D W D W
6 31 14 10 7 39:27 12 52
W W L W W
7 32 13 11 8 44:34 10 50
W W L W L
8 31 14 6 11 46:44 2 48
L W L W L
9 31 13 9 9 43:41 2 48
L D W D W
10 31 11 13 7 32:25 7 46
W L W D W
11 32 13 6 13 32:40 -8 45
W L L W W
12 32 12 9 11 44:34 10 45
L W D W W
13 31 11 9 11 39:38 1 42
D W L D L
14 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
15 31 10 9 12 34:39 -5 39
W D W D L
16 31 9 8 14 34:37 -3 35
L W D L L
17
Avai Away
31 8 6 17 30:42 -12 30
L L L D L
18 31 7 7 17 39:45 -6 28
L L L W W
19 31 4 5 22 21:52 -31 17
L L L L W
20 31 3 4 24 17:66 -49 13
L L W L L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation