Derby
Match Timeline
Birmingham
Derby vs Birmingham Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
1X2
Away Win
BTTS
Yes
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
All Markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
75.1%
|
2.18 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
82.5%
|
1.80 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
70.3%
|
2.08 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
1.19 | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
5.50 | |
| Correct Score | 1-2 |
-
|
9.00 |
Probability Distribution
Derby Win 20.3%
Draw 4.7%
Birmingham Win 75.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Derby1.08
Birmingham1.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
Derby
WWDLW
13 GF / 19 GA
Birmingham
WLDWL
19 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.73
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
6
BTTS Yes
8
7
Over 2.5
8
3.17
Shots on Goal
3.33
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Derby
12 matches
Birmingham
11 matches
| Derby | Statistic | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Wins | 5 |
| 2 | Draws | 5 |
| 7 | Losses | 1 |
| 13 | Goals For | 19 |
| 19 | Goals Against | 12 |
| 1.08 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.73 |
| 1.58 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.09 |
| 6 | BTTS Yes | 8 |
| 10 | Over 1.5 | 9 |
| 7 | Over 2.5 | 8 |
| 3 | Over 3.5 | 4 |
| 2 | Clean Sheets | 3 |
| 4 | Failed To Score | 1 |
| 3.17 | Shots On Goal | 3.33 |
| 10.5 | Total Shots | 12 |
| 5.83 | Corners | 6.5 |
| 47.8% | Ball Possession | 49.7% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
H2H Analysis
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Derby won 8 times, Birmingham won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:18 from Derby's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.
1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Derby 4-2-3-1 / Birmingham 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Derby 8, Birmingham 5
H2H summary: Derby wins 8, draws 4, Birmingham wins 3
Standings
Championship
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13:6 | 7 | 17 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 2 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22:11 | 11 | 15 |
D
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 3 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16:12 | 4 | 15 |
D
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15:10 | 5 | 14 |
W
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10:8 | 2 | 14 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 6 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10:7 | 3 | 13 |
D
D
D
L
W
|
|
| 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13:12 | 1 | 13 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11:12 | -1 | 13 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 9 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:10 | -3 | 12 |
L
D
D
L
D
|
|
| 10 |
Birmingham
Away
|
8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:11 | 1 | 11 |
D
W
L
D
D
|
| 11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15:15 | 0 | 11 |
D
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 12 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:8 | -1 | 11 |
L
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 13 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19:10 | 9 | 10 |
L
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:12 | -3 | 10 |
W
L
D
D
W
|
|
| 15 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11:15 | -4 | 10 |
W
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 16 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:12 | 0 | 9 |
D
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 17 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 9 |
L
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 18 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:11 | -2 | 9 |
L
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 19 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | -1 | 8 |
D
D
W
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7:10 | -3 | 8 |
L
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 21 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10:12 | -2 | 7 |
W
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 22 |
Derby
Home
|
8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7:14 | -7 | 5 |
D
L
L
L
W
|
| 23 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8:15 | -7 | 4 |
D
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 24 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9:17 | -8 | 4 |
D
L
D
L
D
|
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One