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05.10.2026 13:00
Estadio Roque F. Batelhana
Referee: Carlos P. Benitez
Deportivo Recoleta
Match Timeline
Libertad Asuncion
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
3'
Elvio de Jesús Vera Brítez · Assist: Federico Carrizo
Libertad Asuncion
🟨
12'
Wilfrido Baez
Deportivo Recoleta
⚽
18'
Aldo Walmor González Román · Assist: lucas monzon
Deportivo Recoleta
🟨
45+1'
Robert Rojas
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
45'
Wilfrido Baez ↔ Manuel Shupp Astigarraga
Deportivo Recoleta
🔄
45'
Marcelo Fernández ↔ Rodrigo Villalba
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
45'
Nicolás Freire ↔ Thiago Ismael Fernández Martínez
Libertad Asuncion
⚽
53'
Elvio de Jesús Vera Brítez
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
64'
Ivan Franco ↔ Joaquín Andrés Bogarín Gómez
Libertad Asuncion
🟨
67'
Ronal Iván Domínguez Colmán
Deportivo Recoleta
🔄
71'
Ronal Iván Domínguez Colmán ↔ José Espínola
Deportivo Recoleta
🟨
72'
Gustavo Aguilar
Libertad Asuncion
VAR
82'
Gustavo Aguilar
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
82'
Juan Franco ↔ Claudio Garay
Deportivo Recoleta
🔄
82'
Pedro David Ríos Galeano ↔ Paul Charpentier
Deportivo Recoleta
🔄
82'
Facundo Ariel Echeguren Zarza ↔ C. Figueredo
Deportivo Recoleta
🔄
83'
Gilberto Flores ↔ Hugo Fernandez
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
89'
Elvio de Jesús Vera Brítez ↔ Christian Iván Martínez Giménez
Libertad Asuncion

Deportivo Recoleta vs Libertad Asuncion Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 68.1%
Odds 1.72
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.69
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
68.1%
1.72 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.69 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Recoleta Win 21.5%
Draw 10.4%
Libertad Asuncion Win 68.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Recoleta1.37
Libertad Asuncion1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta
WWDLW
48 GF / 56 GA
Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion
WLDWL
57 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.65
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
24
BTTS Yes
19
22
Over 2.5
19
3.53
Shots on Goal
4.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta 34 matches
Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion 40 matches
Deportivo Recoleta Statistic Libertad Asuncion
10 Wins 16
6 Draws 6
18 Losses 18
48 Goals For 57
56 Goals Against 52
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.65 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
24 BTTS Yes 19
28 Over 1.5 26
22 Over 2.5 19
13 Over 3.5 11
5 Clean Sheets 10
6 Failed To Score 12
3.53 Shots On Goal 4.43
10.47 Total Shots 12.75
3.79 Corners 4.65
48.2% Ball Possession 53.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Libertad Asuncion's more proactive style and Deportivo Recoleta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Libertad Asuncion carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 23 points while Deportivo Recoleta sit 11 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Deportivo Recoleta have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Libertad Asuncion.

Deportivo Recoleta Analysis

Deportivo Recoleta sit 11 with 8 points after 12 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 13:24 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on P. Charpentier (2 goals), H. López (2 goals), W. Báez (1 goals), with creative support from W. Báez (2 assists), P. Charpentier (1 assists), A. González (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Libertad Asuncion Analysis

Libertad Asuncion arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 23 points after 12 matches. The record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 19:13 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through E. Vera (4 goals), A. Manzur (2 goals), M. Fernández (2 goals), with creative support from A. Benítez (2 assists), I. Ramirez (2 assists), Á. Campuzano (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Recoleta won 1 times, Libertad Asuncion won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:15 from Deportivo Recoleta's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.43 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.6%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Recoleta 4-4-2 / Libertad Asuncion 4-4-2
H2H summary: Deportivo Recoleta wins 1, draws 3, Libertad Asuncion wins 3

Standings

Primera Division: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 8 2 3 22:10 12 26
D W W W W
2 13 8 2 3 21:14 7 26
W L D W W
3 13 7 4 2 16:13 3 25
W D L L W
4 13 6 5 2 20:8 12 23
D D W W L
5 13 7 2 4 23:13 10 23
W W L W L
6 13 5 6 2 14:10 4 21
D W W D W
7 13 4 6 3 15:15 0 18
L D D W W
8 13 5 2 6 15:14 1 17
L L W D W
9 13 4 1 8 14:24 -10 13
L L W L L
10 13 3 3 7 15:24 -9 12
W D L L L
11 13 2 2 9 14:26 -12 8
L D L L L
12 13 0 3 10 4:22 -18 3
D D L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)