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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
03.10.2026 21:05
Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
Referee: A. Rojas
Deportes Tolima
Match Timeline
Chico
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
9'
Shean Barbosa
Deportes Tolima
🟨
45+1'
Jacobo Pimentel
Chico
🔄
55'
Cristian Blanco ↔ Delio Ramírez
Chico
🔄
56'
Luis Sanchez ↔ Sergio Aguayo
Deportes Tolima
🔄
68'
Sebastian Guzman ↔ Santiago Joven Jiménez
Deportes Tolima
🔄
68'
Jorge Hurtado ↔ Kelvin Flórez
Deportes Tolima
🔄
69'
Jacobo Pimentel ↔ sebastian viveros
Chico
🔄
69'
Alejandro Maya ↔ Felipe Cifuentes
Chico
🟨
73'
Ever Valencia
Deportes Tolima
🔄
78'
Brayan Rovira ↔ Jader Valencia
Deportes Tolima
🔄
78'
Ever Valencia ↔ Victor Manuel Reyes Clavijo
Deportes Tolima
🔄
83'
S. Mera ↔ Daniel Polanco
Chico

Deportes Tolima vs Chico Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87.3%
Odds 1.31
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 2.38
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 1.87
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87.3%
1.31 ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
2.38 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
1.87 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.95 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Deportes Tolima Win 87.3%
Draw 6.4%
Chico Win 6.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportes Tolima1.43
Chico0.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
WWDLW
57 GF / 46 GA
Chico Chico
WLDWL
25 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
0.86
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.72
20
BTTS Yes
7
19
Over 2.5
15
4.59
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 46 matches
Chico Chico 29 matches
Deportes Tolima Statistic Chico
19 Wins 8
12 Draws 4
15 Losses 17
57 Goals For 25
46 Goals Against 50
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 0.86
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.72
20 BTTS Yes 7
30 Over 1.5 21
19 Over 2.5 15
10 Over 3.5 6
16 Clean Sheets 7
15 Failed To Score 16
4.59 Shots On Goal 3
12.91 Total Shots 9.34
4.8 Corners 3.93
56.6% Ball Possession 44.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Deportes Tolima's more proactive style and Chico's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Deportes Tolima arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 31 points compared to Chico in 18 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportes Tolima expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Chico in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Chico having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Chico.

Deportes Tolima Analysis

From their first 19 matches, Deportes Tolima have collected 31 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Their overall return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 27:17 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by L. Sandoval (8 goals), Juan Torres (6 goals), A. Parra (5 goals), with creative support from Juan Torres (4 assists), S. Guzmán (4 assists), L. Sandoval (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Chico Analysis

Chico sit 18 with 17 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 15:32, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Jairo Molina (4 goals), S. Mera (3 goals), Arlen Banguero (2 goals), with creative support from S. Mera (2 assists), D. Ramírez (2 assists), Y. Cabrera (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Deportes Tolima won 8 times, Chico won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:11 from Deportes Tolima's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.77 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (93.7%)
Predicted formations: Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1 / Chico 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Deportes Tolima wins 8, draws 2, Chico wins 3

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W D L W W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L L W W L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W W D L W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
D L L W L
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
D D D L L
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W L W W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D L L W
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W W W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D W W D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L D L W D
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
W L L D L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W W W D W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L W L L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L L L D D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L W L W W
18
Chico Away
19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
D W L L W
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W L L D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L L D D L
Post season qualification