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MONTENEGRO › FIRST LEAGUE
08.10.2026 16:00
Stadion Topolica

Mornar vs Jezero Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.8%
Odds 1.52
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 2.06
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 2.07
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.8%
1.52 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
2.06 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
2.07 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.30 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Mornar Win 65.8%
Draw 7.5%
Jezero Win 26.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mornar1.28
Jezero1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mornar Mornar
WWDLW
21 GF / 17 GA
Jezero Jezero
WLDWL
13 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
1.18
0.94
Average Goals Conceded
1.45
9
BTTS Yes
5
7
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mornar Mornar 18 matches
Jezero Jezero 11 matches
Mornar Statistic Jezero
6 Wins 4
6 Draws 3
6 Losses 4
21 Goals For 13
17 Goals Against 16
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
0.94 Avg Goals Conceded 1.45
9 BTTS Yes 5
10 Over 1.5 7
7 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 4
7 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Mornar's more proactive style and Jezero's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Jezero. Jezero arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Jezero having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Mornar Analysis

From their first 9 matches, Mornar have collected 13 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 9:7 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Jezero Analysis

Jezero approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 9 points from 9 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 9:15 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Mornar won 8 times, Jezero won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:13 from Mornar's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.36 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.5%)
H2H summary: Mornar wins 8, draws 3, Jezero wins 3

Standings

Prva Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 5 1 3 15:10 5 16
W W L W W
2 9 4 3 2 10:7 3 15
D L D L W
3 9 4 3 2 8:5 3 15
W D W L D
4 9 4 2 3 11:7 4 14
W W W L D
5 9 4 2 3 11:7 4 14
W W W D W
6 9 3 4 2 9:7 2 13
D L L W D
7 9 3 1 5 8:15 -7 10
L L W W L
8 9 2 3 4 9:15 -6 9
L D L W L
9 9 1 5 3 7:9 -2 8
L L D D D
10 9 1 4 4 5:11 -6 7
L W L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Prva Crnogorska Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Druga Liga