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BRAZIL › SERIE B
09.08.2026 21:00
Arena Pantanal
Referee: Lucas Paulo Torezin, Brazil
Cuiaba
Match Timeline
Fortaleza EC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
9'
Jean Dias · Assist: Eliel
Cuiaba
🟨
17'
Pierre
Fortaleza EC
🟨
39'
Pedro Henrique
Cuiaba
🟨
42'
Luiz Fernando
Fortaleza EC
🟨
44'
Pepê
Cuiaba
🔄
46'
Eliel ↔ Kauan Cristtyan
Cuiaba
🔄
46'
Vitinho ↔ Rodrigo
Fortaleza EC
🔄
46'
Luiz Fernando ↔ Paulo Baya
Fortaleza EC
VAR
48'
Rodrigo Santos
Fortaleza EC
⚽
54'
Mailton
Fortaleza EC
🟥
63'
Juan Miritello
Fortaleza EC
🔄
65'
G. Fuentes ↔ Mauricio Junior
Fortaleza EC
🔄
65'
Lucas Sasha ↔ T. Cardona
Fortaleza EC
🔄
70'
Pepe ↔ Vinicius Peixoto
Cuiaba
🔄
84'
Jean Dias ↔ Marcos Junior
Cuiaba
🔄
84'
Calebe Costa ↔ Luiz Otavio
Cuiaba
🔄
87'
Rodriguinho ↔ Ryan
Fortaleza EC
🔄
89'
Igor Inocencio ↔ Rodrigo Rodrigues
Cuiaba

Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.6%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.6%
- ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cuiaba Win 53.6%
Draw 5.1%
Fortaleza EC Win 41.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cuiaba0.83
Fortaleza EC0.99
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cuiaba Cuiaba
WWDLW
15 GF / 15 GA
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WLDWL
23 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
0.75
Average Goals Scored
1.15
0.75
Average Goals Conceded
0.95
6
BTTS Yes
7
3
Over 2.5
9
4.35
Shots on Goal
4.3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cuiaba Cuiaba 20 matches
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 20 matches
Cuiaba Statistic Fortaleza EC
5 Wins 10
10 Draws 4
5 Losses 6
15 Goals For 23
15 Goals Against 19
0.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
0.75 Avg Goals Conceded 0.95
6 BTTS Yes 7
10 Over 1.5 11
3 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 3
9 Clean Sheets 9
10 Failed To Score 7
4.35 Shots On Goal 4.3
12.65 Total Shots 14.1
5.25 Corners 5.6
47.8% Ball Possession 46.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Fortaleza EC's more proactive style and Cuiaba's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Fortaleza EC. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cuiaba expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Fortaleza EC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fortaleza EC having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Fortaleza EC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 34 points while Cuiaba sit 14 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Cuiaba Analysis

Cuiaba sit 14 with 25 points after 20 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 10 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 15:15 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on João Basso (2 goals), Hernandes (2 goals), Pepê (1 goals), with creative support from Pepê (3 assists), João Basso (1 assists), Hernandes (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 34 points from 20 games, Fortaleza EC bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 10 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, with a 23:19 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Vitinho (4 goals), Juan Miritello (3 goals), Luiz Fernando (2 goals), with creative support from Maílton (1 assists), Emanuel Brítez (1 assists), Maurício Júnior (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cuiaba won 6 times, Fortaleza EC won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:10 from Cuiaba's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: Cuiaba 3-4-2-1 / Fortaleza EC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cuiaba wins 6, draws 5, Fortaleza EC wins 4

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 18 7 8 46:31 15 61
W D W W W
2 33 17 9 7 39:21 18 60
D W W W L
3 32 16 9 7 54:27 27 57
W W D L D
4 32 15 11 6 37:27 10 56
W D D W D
5 32 15 8 9 33:28 5 53
L W W L L
6 33 14 11 8 41:31 10 53
D L W W L
7 32 15 6 11 49:45 4 51
W L W L W
8 33 13 12 8 45:35 10 51
D W W L W
9 33 14 6 13 34:40 -6 48
W W L L W
10 33 13 9 11 44:45 -1 48
L L L D W
11 33 11 14 8 32:26 6 47
L D W L W
12 33 12 10 11 46:36 10 46
D L W D W
13 33 11 9 13 39:42 -3 42
L L D W L
14 32 11 9 12 35:39 -4 42
W W D W D
15 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
16 32 10 8 14 36:38 -2 38
W L W D L
17 33 10 6 17 33:43 -10 36
W W L L L
18 32 7 7 18 40:47 -7 28
L L L L W
19 32 4 5 23 21:53 -32 17
L L L L L
20 32 3 4 25 17:68 -51 13
L L L W L
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