COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
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Estadio General Santander

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.3%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
72.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cucuta Win 55.3%
Draw 11.6%
Alianza Valledupar Win 33.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cucuta1.22
Alianza Valledupar1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cucuta Cucuta
WWDLW
27 GF / 45 GA
Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar
WLDWL
18 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
0.75
1.8
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
16
BTTS Yes
12
11
Over 2.5
8
3.46
Shots on Goal
2.73

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cucuta Cucuta 25 matches
Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar 24 matches
Cucuta Statistic Alianza Valledupar
4 Wins 3
10 Draws 11
11 Losses 10
27 Goals For 18
45 Goals Against 34
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 0.75
1.8 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
16 BTTS Yes 12
22 Over 1.5 16
11 Over 2.5 8
9 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 10
3.46 Shots On Goal 2.73
8.83 Total Shots 10.82
3.71 Corners 4.23
42.8% Ball Possession 45.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Cucuta have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Alianza Valledupar. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Cucuta Analysis

Cucuta approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 16 points from 19 matches. The overall return of 3 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats with a 22:35 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Jaime Peralta (1 goals), Lucas Ríos (1 goals), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Alianza Valledupar Analysis

With 17 points from 19 games and a place of 17, Alianza Valledupar still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 13:27, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Cristian Andres Vergara Rivas (2 goals), Felipe Pardo (1 goals), Misael Martínez (1 goals), with creative support from Jhildrey Lasso (2 assists), Déinner Quiñones (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Cucuta won 2 times, Alianza Valledupar won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:6 from Cucuta's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.4%)
Predicted formations: Cucuta 4-2-3-1 / Alianza Valledupar 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cucuta wins 2, draws 3, Alianza Valledupar wins 1
Last matches: Cucuta
23.08.26
Pri
Cucuta
Independiente Medellin
1
0
W
19.08.26
Pri
Cucuta
Internacional de Bogota
1
1
D
08.08.26
Pri
Cucuta
Fortaleza FC
0
2
L
04.08.26
Pri
Cucuta
Bucaramanga
1
1
D
27.07.26
Pri
Cucuta
Once Caldas
1
5
L
02.05.26
Pri
Cucuta
Jaguares
0
2
L
24.04.26
Pri
Cucuta
Junior
1
1
D
19.04.26
Pri
Cucuta
Santa Fe
0
5
L
05.04.26
Pri
Cucuta
America de Cali
2
0
W
02.04.26
Pri
Cucuta
Atletico Nacional
0
0
D
28.03.26
Pri
Cucuta
Chico
1
0
W
24.03.26
Pri
Cucuta
Deportivo Pereira
2
2
D
17.03.26
Pri
Cucuta
Llaneros
2
2
D
14.03.26
Pri
Cucuta
Deportivo Cali
0
2
L
09.03.26
Pri
Cucuta
Millonarios
0
2
L
01.03.26
Pri
Cucuta
Deportivo Pasto
2
3
L
23.02.26
Pri
Cucuta
Deportes Tolima
3
2
W
17.02.26
Pri
Cucuta
Alianza Valledupar
1
1
D
10.02.26
Pri
Cucuta
Independiente Medellin
1
3
L
07.02.26
Pri
Cucuta
Águilas Doradas
2
3
L
Last matches: Alianza Valledupar
22.08.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Deportivo Pereira
0
0
D
09.08.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Bucaramanga
2
3
L
01.08.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
1
2
L
26.07.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Fortaleza FC
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Millonarios
2
2
D
26.04.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Llaneros
0
0
D
19.04.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Independiente Medellin
0
1
L
13.04.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Internacional de Bogota
1
2
L
06.04.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Deportivo Pereira
3
2
W
01.04.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Deportivo Pasto
0
0
D
27.03.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Águilas Doradas
0
1
L
22.03.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Deportivo Cali
1
0
W
19.03.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Jaguares
1
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Santa Fe
1
1
D
06.03.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Junior
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
America de Cali
0
3
L
21.02.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Atletico Nacional
0
3
L
17.02.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Cucuta
1
1
D
08.02.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Once Caldas
1
1
D
01.02.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Bucaramanga
0
5
L
H2H: Cucuta vs Alianza Valledupar
17.02.26
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Cucuta
1
1
D
08.02.20
H2H
Cucuta
Alianza Valledupar
0
2
L
06.10.19
H2H
Cucuta
Alianza Valledupar
1
1
D
14.04.19
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Cucuta
0
1
W
21.03.19
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Cucuta
1
1
D
15.03.19
H2H
Cucuta
Alianza Valledupar
2
1
W
Last matches: Cucuta
19.08.26
Pri
Cucuta
Internacional de Bogota
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pri
Cucuta
Junior
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Cucuta
America de Cali
2
0
W
28.03.26
Pri
Cucuta
Chico
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Cucuta
Deportivo Cali
0
2
L
23.02.26
Pri
Cucuta
Deportes Tolima
3
2
W
10.02.26
Pri
Cucuta
Independiente Medellin
1
3
L
31.01.26
Pri
Cucuta
Fortaleza FC
1
1
D
27.01.26
Pri
Cucuta
Bucaramanga
2
2
D
19.01.26
Pri
Cucuta
Once Caldas
1
2
L
16.01.26
Fri
Cucuta
Huracan
1
1
D
02.12.25
Pri
Cucuta
Real Cundinamarca
2
1
W
23.11.25
Pri
Cucuta
Internacional Palmira
4
0
W
11.11.25
Pri
Cucuta
Jaguares
2
2
D
06.11.25
Pri
Cucuta
Huila
2
1
W
25.10.25
Pri
Cucuta
Orsomarso
1
0
W
05.10.25
Pri
Cucuta
Leones FC
4
0
W
21.09.25
Pri
Cucuta
Jaguares
1
2
L
07.09.25
Pri
Cucuta
Real Santander
2
1
W
17.08.25
Pri
Cucuta
Popayan
1
0
W
H2H at home: Cucuta
08.02.20
H2H
Cucuta
Alianza Valledupar
0
2
L
06.10.19
H2H
Cucuta
Alianza Valledupar
1
1
D
15.03.19
H2H
Cucuta
Alianza Valledupar
2
1
W
Last matches: Alianza Valledupar
26.04.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Llaneros
0
0
D
13.04.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Internacional de Bogota
1
2
L
06.04.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Deportivo Pereira
3
2
W
27.03.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Águilas Doradas
0
1
L
15.03.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Santa Fe
1
1
D
06.03.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Junior
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Atletico Nacional
0
3
L
01.02.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Bucaramanga
0
5
L
24.01.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
0
2
L
17.01.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Fortaleza FC
0
1
L
14.11.25
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Santa Fe
0
1
L
28.10.25
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Deportivo Cali
1
0
W
18.10.25
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Águilas Doradas
0
1
L
05.10.25
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Deportivo Pasto
3
3
D
20.09.25
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Envigado
0
0
D
06.09.25
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Bucaramanga
1
3
L
24.08.25
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Union Magdalena
3
2
W
08.08.25
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Atletico Nacional
0
3
L
28.07.25
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Fortaleza FC
2
2
D
13.07.25
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Independiente Medellin
1
1
D
H2H away: Alianza Valledupar
08.02.20
H2H
Cucuta
Alianza Valledupar
0
2
W
06.10.19
H2H
Cucuta
Alianza Valledupar
1
1
D
15.03.19
H2H
Cucuta
Alianza Valledupar
2
1
L

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
L W W L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L L L W W
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
L L L L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
D W W W W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
D L D W D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
D W L W W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
D W D L L
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D L W L L
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W L W D W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D W W L D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D D W W W
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D W D D W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
D W D W L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
W L D D W
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
W D L L L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
D L L D D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L L W L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L D L L
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D D L L W
Post season qualification