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13.08.2026 00:30
Governador Magalhães Pinto
Referee: Y. Perez
Cruzeiro
Match Timeline
Flamengo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
Matheus Henrique
Cruzeiro
🟨
30'
Giorgian de Arrascaeta
Flamengo
⚽
53'
K. Arroyo · Assist: William Furtado
Cruzeiro
🔄
65'
Wesley ↔ Kenji
Cruzeiro
🔄
65'
Bruno Henrique ↔ Pedro
Flamengo
🟨
66'
Fabrício Bruno
Cruzeiro
🔄
66'
G. de Arrascaeta ↔ Lucas Paqueta
Flamengo
⚽
67'
Lucas Paqueta
Flamengo
🔄
78'
Matheus Henrique ↔ Ze Lucas
Cruzeiro
🔄
78'
K. Arroyo ↔ J. Costa
Cruzeiro
🔄
84'
Samuel Lino ↔ J. Carrascal
Flamengo
🔄
89'
G. Plata ↔ G. Varela
Flamengo

Cruzeiro vs Flamengo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 45.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
45.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cruzeiro Win 39.6%
Draw 14.6%
Flamengo Win 45.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cruzeiro1.15
Flamengo1.69
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WWDLW
41 GF / 37 GA
Flamengo Flamengo
WLDWL
60 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.37
Average Goals Scored
2
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
0.83
17
BTTS Yes
15
16
Over 2.5
17
4.54
Shots on Goal
5.81

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 30 matches
Flamengo Flamengo 30 matches
Cruzeiro Statistic Flamengo
13 Wins 19
8 Draws 8
9 Losses 3
41 Goals For 60
37 Goals Against 25
1.37 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 0.83
17 BTTS Yes 15
23 Over 1.5 28
16 Over 2.5 17
8 Over 3.5 7
10 Clean Sheets 13
5 Failed To Score 2
4.54 Shots On Goal 5.81
13.82 Total Shots 15.58
4.86 Corners 4.65
55.4% Ball Possession 56.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Flamengo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 16 points while Cruzeiro sit 2 on 11, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Flamengo look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Flamengo. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Cruzeiro Analysis

Cruzeiro enter this tie with a season profile built on 11 points from 6 matches, placing them 2 in their league. The return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 8:3 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Matheus Pereira (4 goals), Christian (1 goals), Fagner (1 goals), with creative support from Fagner (2 assists), Kaio Jorge (2 assists), Matheus Pereira (1 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Flamengo Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Flamengo arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 16 points after 6 matches. The return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 14:2 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking influence is driven by Bruno Henrique (4 goals), G. de Arrascaeta (2 goals), Lucas Paqueta (2 goals), with creative support from Bruno Henrique (2 assists), Ayrton Lucas (2 assists), G. de Arrascaeta (1 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cruzeiro won 2 times, Flamengo won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:23 from Cruzeiro's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.4%)
Predicted formations: Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1 / Flamengo 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cruzeiro wins 2, draws 3, Flamengo wins 10

Standings

Group D
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 1 1 8:4 4 13
W W D W W
2 6 3 2 1 8:3 5 11
W D D W L
3 6 2 1 3 6:5 1 7
L D L L W
4 6 1 0 5 2:12 -10 3
L L W L L
Copa Sudamericana 1/16-finals