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BRAZIL › SERIE A
12.10.2026 19:00
Estádio Couto Pereira

Coritiba vs Botafogo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Coritiba Win 70%
Draw 7.8%
Botafogo Win 22.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Coritiba1.39
Botafogo1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Coritiba Coritiba
WWDLW
37 GF / 43 GA
Botafogo Botafogo
WLDWL
44 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.54
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
15
BTTS Yes
20
15
Over 2.5
18
3.46
Shots on Goal
5.09

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Coritiba Coritiba 28 matches
Botafogo Botafogo 32 matches
Coritiba Statistic Botafogo
10 Wins 10
8 Draws 9
10 Losses 13
37 Goals For 44
43 Goals Against 48
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.54 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
15 BTTS Yes 20
21 Over 1.5 25
15 Over 2.5 18
9 Over 3.5 10
6 Clean Sheets 5
8 Failed To Score 9
3.46 Shots On Goal 5.09
11.21 Total Shots 14.03
3.64 Corners 4.31
40.4% Ball Possession 48.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Coritiba expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Botafogo in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Botafogo having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Botafogo. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Coritiba Analysis

From their first 28 matches, Coritiba have collected 38 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Their overall return of 10 wins, 8 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 37:43 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Breno Lopes (8 goals), Pedro Rocha (6 goals), J. Lavega (5 goals), with creative support from Josué (10 assists), Lucas Ronier (2 assists), Tinga (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Botafogo Analysis

From their first 28 matches, Botafogo have collected 35 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses, while the 41:45 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Danilo Santos (7 goals), Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Edenílson (4 goals), with creative support from Alex Telles (4 assists), Álvaro Montoro (3 assists), Danilo Santos (2 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Coritiba won 2 times, Botafogo won 7 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:20 from Coritiba's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.2%)
Predicted formations: Coritiba 4-2-3-1 / Botafogo 4-4-2
H2H summary: Coritiba wins 2, draws 6, Botafogo wins 7

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 28 12 7 9 37:32 5 43
W D W L W
8 28 11 8 9 43:41 2 41
W W W W W
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L W L W W
11 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L L D L L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B