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19.04.2026 00:00
Estadio Ester Roa
Referee: F. Gilabert
Concepción
Match Timeline
D. La Serena
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
11'
I. S. Mesias Gonzalez · Assist: N. Rodriguez
Concepción
🟨
22'
N. Rodriguez
Concepción
⚽
24'
J. Vargas
D. La Serena
⚽
31'
J. Vargas
D. La Serena
⚽
41'
N. Stefanelli
D. La Serena
🔄
46'
Y. Rodriguez ↔ M. Sandoval
Concepción
🔄
46'
F. Grillo ↔ B. Vejar
Concepción
🔄
46'
B. Escobar ↔ J. Henriquez
Concepción
⚽
46'
I. S. Mesias Gonzalez · Assist: J. Larrivey
Concepción
🔄
55'
C. Suarez ↔ L. Valencia Rossel
Concepción
🟨
59'
F. Lanzillotta
D. La Serena
🟨
60'
B. Gutierrez
D. La Serena
⚽
67'
J. Larrivey
Concepción
🔄
70'
S. Diaz ↔ M. Marin
D. La Serena
🔄
75'
N. Stefanelli ↔ D. Rubio
D. La Serena
🔄
76'
I. S. Mesias Gonzalez ↔ L. Romero
Concepción
🟥
90+5'
D. Carrasco
Concepción
🟨
90+7'
F. Dinamarca
D. La Serena
🔄
90+3'
J. Vargas ↔ F. Dinamarca
D. La Serena
🔄
90+3'
J. Gutierrez ↔ B. Contreras
D. La Serena

Concepción vs D. La Serena Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 51.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 56.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
82.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
51.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
56.8%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Concepción Win 5.8%
Draw 11.6%
D. La Serena Win 82.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Concepción0.86
D. La Serena1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Concepción Concepción
WWDLW
5 GF / 16 GA
D. La Serena D. La Serena
WLDWL
12 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
0.5
Average Goals Scored
1.2
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
4
BTTS Yes
4
4
Over 2.5
5
2.78
Shots on Goal
4.11

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Concepción Concepción 10 matches
D. La Serena D. La Serena 10 matches
Concepción Statistic D. La Serena
1 Wins 3
1 Draws 3
8 Losses 4
5 Goals For 12
16 Goals Against 14
0.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
4 BTTS Yes 4
7 Over 1.5 6
4 Over 2.5 5
0 Over 3.5 4
1 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 3
2.78 Shots On Goal 4.11
11.89 Total Shots 10.44
5.56 Corners 4.11
50.2% Ball Possession 47.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Concepción have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. D. La Serena carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 10 with 12 points while Concepción sit 16 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Concepción expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and D. La Serena in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward D. La Serena having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring D. La Serena. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Concepción Analysis

Concepción sit 16 with 4 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 4:13 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Diaz (1 goals), Agustín Urzi (1 goals), C. Waterman (1 goals), with creative support from A. Diaz (1 assists), C. Waterman (1 assists), L. Valencia Rossel (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

D. La Serena Analysis

From their first 9 matches, D. La Serena have collected 12 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. The record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 10:11 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through F. Chamorro (3 goals), J. Vargas (3 goals), Diego Rubio (1 goals), with creative support from Diego Rubio (3 assists), J. Vargas (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Concepción won 0 times, D. La Serena won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:3 from Concepción's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (94.2%)
Predicted formations: Concepción 4-1-4-1 / D. La Serena 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Concepción wins 0, draws 1, D. La Serena wins 0

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 17 3 4 50:27 23 54
L D D W W
2 23 13 3 7 50:33 17 42
W W W W L
3 23 12 6 5 35:19 16 42
W W L L W
4 24 11 6 7 40:27 13 39
W W L W W
5 24 11 4 9 38:35 3 37
D L W L W
6 24 10 4 10 45:37 8 34
D L W W L
7 23 9 5 9 36:33 3 32
W L L L W
8 24 9 5 10 26:27 -1 32
D D L W D
9 23 8 8 7 28:31 -3 32
L L L L W
10 23 9 4 10 33:39 -6 31
W W W D L
11 24 7 9 8 36:41 -5 30
L L W W D
12 23 7 7 9 26:31 -5 28
W W L D D
13 24 8 3 13 28:38 -10 27
L L W L L
14 24 7 4 13 35:45 -10 25
D W L W D
15 24 6 5 13 18:40 -22 23
D L L L W
16 24 4 6 14 20:41 -21 18
D W L L D