CHILE PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Ester Roa
Referee: F. Gilabert
Concepción
Match Timeline
D. La Serena
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
I. S. Mesias Gonzalez · Assist: N. Rodriguez
Concepción
🟨
22'
N. Rodriguez
Concepción
24'
J. Vargas
D. La Serena
31'
J. Vargas
D. La Serena
41'
N. Stefanelli
D. La Serena
🔄
46'
Y. Rodriguez ↔ M. Sandoval
Concepción
🔄
46'
F. Grillo ↔ B. Vejar
Concepción
🔄
46'
B. Escobar ↔ J. Henriquez
Concepción
46'
I. S. Mesias Gonzalez · Assist: J. Larrivey
Concepción
🔄
55'
C. Suarez ↔ L. Valencia Rossel
Concepción
🟨
59'
F. Lanzillotta
D. La Serena
🟨
60'
B. Gutierrez
D. La Serena
67'
J. Larrivey
Concepción
🔄
70'
S. Diaz ↔ M. Marin
D. La Serena
🔄
75'
N. Stefanelli ↔ D. Rubio
D. La Serena
🔄
76'
I. S. Mesias Gonzalez ↔ L. Romero
Concepción
🟥
90+5'
D. Carrasco
Concepción
🟨
90+7'
F. Dinamarca
D. La Serena
🔄
90+3'
J. Vargas ↔ F. Dinamarca
D. La Serena
🔄
90+3'
J. Gutierrez ↔ B. Contreras
D. La Serena

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 51.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 56.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
82.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
51.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
56.8%
-
Probability Distribution
Concepción Win 5.8%
Draw 11.6%
D. La Serena Win 82.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Concepción0.86
D. La Serena1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Concepción Concepción
WWDLW
5 GF / 16 GA
D. La Serena D. La Serena
WLDWL
12 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
0.5
Average Goals Scored
1.2
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
4
BTTS Yes
4
4
Over 2.5
5
2.78
Shots on Goal
3.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Concepción Concepción 10 matches
D. La Serena D. La Serena 10 matches
Concepción Statistic D. La Serena
1 Wins 3
1 Draws 3
8 Losses 4
5 Goals For 12
16 Goals Against 14
0.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
4 BTTS Yes 4
7 Over 1.5 6
4 Over 2.5 5
0 Over 3.5 4
1 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 3
2.78 Shots On Goal 3.89
11.89 Total Shots 9.89
5.56 Corners 4.11
50.2% Ball Possession 48.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Concepción have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. D. La Serena carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 10 with 12 points while Concepción sit 16 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Concepción expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and D. La Serena in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward D. La Serena having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring D. La Serena. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Concepción Analysis

Concepción sit 16 with 4 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 4:13 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Diaz (1 goals), Agustín Urzi (1 goals), C. Waterman (1 goals), with creative support from A. Diaz (1 assists), C. Waterman (1 assists), L. Valencia Rossel (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

D. La Serena Analysis

From their first 9 matches, D. La Serena have collected 12 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. The record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 10:11 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through F. Chamorro (3 goals), J. Vargas (3 goals), Diego Rubio (1 goals), with creative support from Diego Rubio (3 assists), J. Vargas (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Concepción won 0 times, D. La Serena won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:3 from Concepción's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (94.2%)
Predicted formations: Concepción 4-1-4-1 / D. La Serena 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Concepción wins 0, draws 1, D. La Serena wins 0
Stats
Concepción Concepción
D. La Serena D. La Serena
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
3
1 Corner Kicks 5
7 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 2
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Goal 3
5 Shots off Goal 4
1 Blocked Shots 3
7 Shots insidebox 8
2 Shots outsidebox 2
1 Goalkeeper Saves 0
272 Total passes 336
179 Passes accurate 252
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Concepción
Formation
D. La Serena
N. Araya
N. Araya
N. Rodriguez
🎯
N. Rodriguez
C. Suarez
C. Suarez
F. Grillo
F. Grillo
D. Carrasco
D. Carrasco
A. Jara
A. Jara
Y. Rodriguez
Y. Rodriguez
M. Davila Carvajal
M. Davila Carvajal
B. Escobar
B. Escobar
I. S. Mesias Gonzalez
⚽ 2
I. S. Mesias Gonzalez
J. Larrivey
🎯
J. Larrivey
F. Lanzillotta
F. Lanzillotta
B. Gutierrez
B. Gutierrez
A. Zanini
A. Zanini
R. Delgado
R. Delgado
Y. Salazar
Y. Salazar
F. Mac Allister
F. Mac Allister
J. Gutierrez
J. Gutierrez
F. Chamorro
F. Chamorro
S. Diaz
S. Diaz
J. Vargas
⚽ 2
J. Vargas
N. Stefanelli
N. Stefanelli
Concepción 4-4-2
Starting XI
25
N. Araya
G
21
N. Rodriguez
🎯 11' 🟨 22'
D
13
C. Suarez
↓ 55'
D
37
F. Grillo
↓ 46'
D
3
D. Carrasco
🟥 90+5'
D
19
A. Jara
M
18
Y. Rodriguez
↓ 46'
M
22
M. Davila Carvajal
M
39
B. Escobar
↓ 46'
M
17
I. S. Mesias Gonzalez
⚽ 11' ⚽ 46' ↓ 76'
32
J. Larrivey
⚽ 67' 🎯 46'
F
Substitutes
12
N. Veloso Espinoza
G
16
M. Sandoval
↑ 46'
M
11
B. Vejar
↑ 46'
M
10
L. Valencia Rossel
↑ 55'
M
20
J. Henriquez
↑ 46'
M
24
M. Cavalleri
F
7
A. Gillard
F
26
L. Romero
↑ 76'
M
28
M. Gonzalez
D
D. La Serena 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
1
F. Lanzillotta
🟨 59'
G
21
B. Gutierrez
🟨 60'
D
2
A. Zanini
D
33
R. Delgado
D
17
Y. Salazar
D
4
F. Mac Allister
M
16
J. Gutierrez
↓ 90+3'
M
14
F. Chamorro
M
6
S. Diaz
↓ 70'
10
J. Vargas
⚽ 24' ⚽ 31' ↓ 90+3'
M
34
N. Stefanelli
⚽ 41' ↓ 75'
F
Substitutes
22
E. A. Sanhueza Mora
9
A. Henriquez
F
28
J. Orellana
11
D. Rubio
↑ 75'
F
5
L. Alarcon
23
M. Marin
↑ 70'
M
26
F. Dinamarca
↑ 90+3' 🟨 90+7'
D
15
B. Contreras
↑ 90+3'
F
20
M. Velasquez
M
Last matches: Concepción
02.07.26
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
2
1
W
29.06.26
Cop
Concepción
D. Puerto Montt
0
2
L
24.06.26
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
3
2
W
21.06.26
Cop
Concepción
Deportes Temuco
1
1
D
14.06.26
Pri
Concepción
Deportes Limache
3
2
W
30.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Universidad de Chile
1
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Huachipato
2
0
W
18.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Everton de Vina
0
2
L
24.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Palestino
1
0
W
14.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Union La Calera
0
1
L
05.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Colo Colo
0
1
L
13.03.26
Pri
Concepción
A. Italiano
0
3
L
06.03.26
Pri
Concepción
Nublense
0
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Concepción
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
20.02.26
Pri
Concepción
Cobresal
1
1
D
15.02.26
Pri
Concepción
Universidad de Concepcion
1
2
L
08.02.26
Pri
Concepción
U. Catolica
0
2
L
02.02.26
Pri
Concepción
O'Higgins
1
2
L
14.01.26
Fri
Concepción
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
Last matches: D. La Serena
05.07.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Antofagasta
2
4
L
01.07.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
0
W
28.06.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobreloa
2
1
W
24.06.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobresal
0
0
D
21.06.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Antofagasta
2
4
L
13.06.26
Pri
D. La Serena
A. Italiano
1
1
D
30.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Colo Colo
2
4
L
24.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Deportes Limache
4
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Palestino
1
5
L
26.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Huachipato
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Everton de Vina
1
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Universidad de Chile
0
4
L
15.03.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Nublense
2
2
D
06.03.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Union La Calera
3
0
W
27.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
0
W
22.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Universidad de Concepcion
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Coquimbo Unido
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
O'Higgins
0
1
L
01.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
U. Catolica
2
2
D
24.01.26
Fri
D. La Serena
Cobresal
2
3
L
H2H: Concepción vs D. La Serena
19.04.26
H2H
Concepción
D. La Serena
3
3
D
Last matches: Concepción
24.06.26
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
3
2
W
14.06.26
Pri
Concepción
Deportes Limache
3
2
W
24.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Huachipato
2
0
W
18.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Everton de Vina
0
2
L
05.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Colo Colo
0
1
L
06.03.26
Pri
Concepción
Nublense
0
2
L
20.02.26
Pri
Concepción
Cobresal
1
1
D
14.01.26
Fri
Concepción
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
H2H at home: Concepción
19.04.26
H2H
Concepción
D. La Serena
3
3
D
Last matches: D. La Serena
01.07.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
0
W
21.06.26
Cop
D. La Serena
Antofagasta
2
4
L
13.06.26
Pri
D. La Serena
A. Italiano
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Palestino
1
5
L
05.04.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Universidad de Chile
0
4
L
15.03.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Nublense
2
2
D
27.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
Cobresal
1
0
W
07.02.26
Pri
D. La Serena
O'Higgins
0
1
L
H2H away: D. La Serena
19.04.26
H2H
Concepción
D. La Serena
3
3
D

Standings

Primera
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 12 0 3 29:12 17 36
W W W W W
2 15 8 2 5 35:20 15 26
W W L W L
3 15 6 6 3 17:10 7 24
W D W L W
4 15 7 3 5 22:18 4 24
D W D W L
5 15 7 3 5 23:21 2 24
W D W W L
6 15 7 2 6 23:22 1 23
D L L W D
7 15 6 4 5 19:15 4 22
L W D W W
8 15 5 7 3 18:19 -1 22
D W D L L
9 15 6 3 6 30:23 7 21
L L L L D
10 15 6 2 7 19:22 -3 20
L D L L W
11 15 5 4 6 13:26 -13 19
L D D W L
12 15 4 6 5 21:25 -4 18
D L W L D
13 15 4 4 7 18:21 -3 16
D D W L D
14 15 4 2 9 14:23 -9 14
W L W L W
15 15 4 1 10 19:29 -10 13
L L L W L
16 15 3 3 9 14:28 -14 12
D D L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga de Ascenso