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18.07.2026 01:00
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Referee: K. Ortega
Cienciano
Match Timeline
FBC Melgar
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
6'
N. Bandiera ↔ A. Robles
Cienciano
🟨
10'
Nicolás Quagliata
FBC Melgar
⚽
22'
A. Hohberg · Assist: G. Barreto
Cienciano
VAR
27'
Alejandro Hohberg
Cienciano
🟥
28'
Alejandro Hohberg
Cienciano
⚽
36'
N. Quagliata
FBC Melgar
🔄
59'
↔ C. Cabello
Cienciano
🟨
61'
Cristian Bordacahar
FBC Melgar
🔄
61'
N. Cabanillas ↔ J. Vidales
FBC Melgar
🔄
65'
K. Becerra ↔ R. Aguilar
Cienciano
🔄
66'
C. Garces ↔ M. Succar
Cienciano
🔄
75'
C. Bordacahar ↔ J. Caceres
FBC Melgar
🟨
77'
Walter Tandazo
FBC Melgar
⚽
80'
J. Caceres · Assist: B. Cuesta
FBC Melgar
🔄
88'
B. Cuesta ↔ A. Deneumostier
FBC Melgar
🟨
90+8'
Marcos Martinich
Cienciano
🟨
90+1'
Leonel González
FBC Melgar
🔄
90'
M. Zegarra ↔ J. D'Arrigo
FBC Melgar
⚽
90'
J. Vidales · Assist: M. Lazo
FBC Melgar

Cienciano vs FBC Melgar Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cienciano Win 71.1%
Draw 5.2%
FBC Melgar Win 23.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cienciano1.62
FBC Melgar1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cienciano Cienciano
WWDLW
35 GF / 23 GA
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
WLDWL
36 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.94
Average Goals Scored
1.64
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
13
BTTS Yes
15
12
Over 2.5
12
5.94
Shots on Goal
4.53

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cienciano Cienciano 18 matches
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 22 matches
Cienciano Statistic FBC Melgar
10 Wins 10
4 Draws 6
4 Losses 6
35 Goals For 36
23 Goals Against 25
1.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.64
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
13 BTTS Yes 15
15 Over 1.5 19
12 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 8
2 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 3
5.94 Shots On Goal 4.53
15.59 Total Shots 13.76
5.41 Corners 4.88
52.6% Ball Possession 53%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cienciano expected to line up in 4-4-2 and FBC Melgar in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FBC Melgar having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors FBC Melgar. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Cienciano Analysis

Cienciano come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 33 points from 17 matches. The record of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 34:22 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Hohberg (10 goals), C. Garces (10 goals), N. Bandiera (6 goals), with creative support from A. Hohberg (5 assists), C. Souza Espana (3 assists), C. Garces (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

FBC Melgar Analysis

FBC Melgar arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 28 points after 17 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, while the 29:20 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on B. Cuesta (8 goals), J. Vidales (7 goals), M. Zegarra (3 goals), with creative support from N. Quagliata (8 assists), B. Cuesta (4 assists), M. Zegarra (4 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cienciano won 1 times, FBC Melgar won 11 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:24 from Cienciano's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
Predicted formations: Cienciano 4-4-2 / FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cienciano wins 1, draws 3, FBC Melgar wins 11

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 8 3 44:18 26 56
W L D L D
2 28 14 8 6 45:33 12 50
D L W D W
3 28 14 6 8 39:25 14 48
L W L W W
4 28 13 8 7 47:31 16 47
D D W W L
5 27 14 3 10 40:38 2 45
W L W W L
6 28 13 5 10 48:40 8 44
W D L W L
7 28 12 7 9 36:45 -9 43
D D L L L
8 27 11 7 9 40:35 5 40
W L W W W
9 27 11 5 11 48:40 8 38
W W W L L
10 27 10 8 9 29:26 3 38
D W L W W
11 28 11 5 12 38:44 -6 38
W W W W W
12 28 9 8 11 43:53 -10 35
D W W D W
13 28 9 6 13 26:31 -5 33
D L W L W
14 28 7 10 11 36:39 -3 31
D L L D L
15 28 7 7 14 41:52 -11 28
D L W L W
16 28 6 8 14 29:42 -13 26
D W L L L
17 28 6 7 15 24:43 -19 25
L L L L L
18 27 4 8 15 32:50 -18 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2