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16.08.2026 23:30
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Referee: Jordi Espinoza, Peru
Cienciano
Match Timeline
Deportivo Garcilaso
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
7'
Santiago Arias
Cienciano
🟨
7'
Francisco Arancibia
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟨
13'
Aldair Salazar
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟨
30'
Gerson Barreto
Cienciano
🟨
31'
Beto Da Silva
Deportivo Garcilaso
⚽
41'
Beto Da Silva
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
46'
G. Barreto ↔ N. Bandiera
Cienciano
🔄
46'
C. Souza Espana ↔ M. Succar
Cienciano
VAR
55'
Neri Bandiera
Cienciano
🔄
63'
K. Sandoval ↔ A. Ascues
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
63'
C. Olivares ↔ F. Castelli
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟥
68'
Matías Succar
Cienciano
VAR
68'
Matías Succar
Cienciano
🟨
71'
Carlos Ramos
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
84'
A. Robles ↔ H. Caparo
Cienciano
🔄
84'
A. Hohberg ↔ D. La Torre
Cienciano
🟨
87'
Agustín González
Deportivo Garcilaso

Cienciano vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
74.2%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cienciano Win 53.1%
Draw 15.7%
Deportivo Garcilaso Win 31.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cienciano1.42
Deportivo Garcilaso1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cienciano Cienciano
WWDLW
38 GF / 29 GA
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso
WLDWL
26 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.73
Average Goals Scored
1.24
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
0.95
14
BTTS Yes
10
13
Over 2.5
7
5.71
Shots on Goal
4.05

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cienciano Cienciano 22 matches
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 21 matches
Cienciano Statistic Deportivo Garcilaso
11 Wins 10
4 Draws 5
7 Losses 6
38 Goals For 26
29 Goals Against 20
1.73 Avg Goals Scored 1.24
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 0.95
14 BTTS Yes 10
18 Over 1.5 12
13 Over 2.5 7
8 Over 3.5 4
3 Clean Sheets 8
5 Failed To Score 5
5.71 Shots On Goal 4.05
15.38 Total Shots 11.52
5.14 Corners 3.48
52.1% Ball Possession 45.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Deportivo Garcilaso. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Cienciano have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Cienciano Analysis

Cienciano sit 3 with 33 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 34:22 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Alejandro Hohberg (5 goals), Carlos Garcés (3 goals), Matías Succar (3 goals), with creative support from Alejandro Hohberg (2 assists), Carlos Garcés (2 assists), Cristian Souza (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Deportivo Garcilaso Analysis

From their first 17 matches, Deportivo Garcilaso have collected 26 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Their overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 21:18 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Christopher Olivares (6 goals), Beto Da Silva (4 goals), Francisco Arancibia (2 goals), with creative support from Francisco Arancibia (3 assists), Christopher Olivares (2 assists), Kevin Sandoval (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Cienciano won 3 times, Deportivo Garcilaso won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:11 from Cienciano's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.44 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.3%)
Predicted formations: Cienciano 4-2-3-1 / Deportivo Garcilaso 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cienciano wins 3, draws 2, Deportivo Garcilaso wins 4

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 8 3 44:18 26 56
W L D L D
2 27 14 7 6 43:31 12 49
L W D W W
3 28 14 6 8 39:25 14 48
L W L W W
4 27 13 7 7 45:29 16 46
D W W L D
5 27 14 3 10 40:38 2 45
W L W W L
6 28 13 5 10 48:40 8 44
W D L W L
7 28 12 7 9 36:45 -9 43
D D L L L
8 27 11 7 9 40:35 5 40
W L W W W
9 27 11 5 11 48:40 8 38
W W W L L
10 27 10 8 9 29:26 3 38
D W L W W
11 28 11 5 12 38:44 -6 38
W W W W W
12 28 9 8 11 43:53 -10 35
D W W D W
13 28 9 6 13 26:31 -5 33
D L W L W
14 28 7 10 11 36:39 -3 31
D L L D L
15 28 7 7 14 41:52 -11 28
D L W L W
16 28 6 8 14 29:42 -13 26
D W L L L
17 28 6 7 15 24:43 -19 25
L L L L L
18 27 4 8 15 32:50 -18 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2