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16.05.2026 22:45
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Referee: Edwin Ordonez, Peru
Cienciano
Match Timeline
Alianza Lima
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
Carlos Garcés
Cienciano
🟨
14'
Renzo Garcés
Alianza Lima
VAR
30'
Carlos Garcés
Cienciano
🟥
31'
Renzo Salazar
Cienciano
⚽
45'
M. Huaman
Alianza Lima
🔄
46'
H. Caparo ↔ R. Aguilar
Cienciano
🟨
62'
Cristian Carbajal
Alianza Lima
🔄
65'
N. Bandiera ↔ M. Succar
Cienciano
🟨
68'
Luis Advíncula
Alianza Lima
🔄
70'
A. Robles ↔ M. Martinich
Cienciano
🔄
72'
Paolo Guerrero ↔ F. Girotti
Alianza Lima
🔄
82'
J. Velez ↔ G. Gentile
Alianza Lima
🔄
82'
J. Castillo ↔ J. Archimbaud
Alianza Lima
🔄
82'
E. Castillo ↔ A. Cantero
Alianza Lima

Cienciano vs Alianza Lima Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cienciano Win 60.1%
Draw 0%
Alianza Lima Win 39.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cienciano1.41
Alianza Lima1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cienciano Cienciano
WWDLW
30 GF / 18 GA
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima
WLDWL
29 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.71
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
0.53
11
BTTS Yes
7
10
Over 2.5
6
6.29
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cienciano Cienciano 15 matches
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 17 matches
Cienciano Statistic Alianza Lima
9 Wins 11
3 Draws 4
3 Losses 2
30 Goals For 29
18 Goals Against 9
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.71
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 0.53
11 BTTS Yes 7
13 Over 1.5 10
10 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 8
2 Failed To Score 3
6.29 Shots On Goal 5
15.36 Total Shots 14.69
5.43 Corners 4.06
52.1% Ball Possession 55.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Alianza Lima. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cienciano expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Alianza Lima in 4-1-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alianza Lima having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Alianza Lima look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Cienciano Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 29 points from 14 games, Cienciano bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 9 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 29:17, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Hohberg (9 goals), C. Garces (9 goals), N. Bandiera (6 goals), with creative support from A. Hohberg (5 assists), C. Souza Espana (2 assists), G. Aguirre (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Alianza Lima Analysis

Alianza Lima come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 33 points after 14 matches. They have recorded 10 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, with a 25:7 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on E. Castillo (8 goals), Paolo Guerrero (4 goals), R. Garces (4 goals), with creative support from E. Castillo (4 assists), J. Velez (3 assists), A. Cantero (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Cienciano won 4 times, Alianza Lima won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:13 from Cienciano's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.91 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Cienciano 3-4-2-1 / Alianza Lima 4-1-3-2
H2H summary: Cienciano wins 4, draws 2, Alianza Lima wins 5

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 8 3 44:18 26 56
W L D L D
2 28 14 8 6 45:33 12 50
D L W D W
3 28 14 6 8 39:25 14 48
L W L W W
4 28 13 8 7 47:31 16 47
D D W W L
5 27 14 3 10 40:38 2 45
W L W W L
6 28 13 5 10 48:40 8 44
W D L W L
7 28 12 7 9 36:45 -9 43
D D L L L
8 28 12 5 11 49:40 9 41
W W W W L
9 27 11 7 9 40:35 5 40
W L W W W
10 27 10 8 9 29:26 3 38
D W L W W
11 28 11 5 12 38:44 -6 38
W W W W W
12 28 9 8 11 43:53 -10 35
D W W D W
13 28 9 6 13 26:31 -5 33
D L W L W
14 28 7 10 11 36:39 -3 31
D L L D L
15 28 7 7 14 41:52 -11 28
D L W L W
16 28 6 8 14 29:42 -13 26
D W L L L
17 28 6 7 15 24:43 -19 25
L L L L L
18 28 4 8 16 32:51 -19 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2