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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
25.09.2026 23:10
Estadio La Independencia
Referee: J. A. Villa Zapata
Chico
Match Timeline
Deportivo Pasto
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
55'
D. Osede ↔ J. Perlaza
Deportivo Pasto
🔄
59'
J. Pimentel ↔ Y. Cabrera
Chico
⚽
68'
Y. Cabrera · Assist: S. Mera
Chico
⚽
70'
E. Sarria
Chico
🔄
72'
D. Chavez ↔ Y. Goez
Deportivo Pasto
🔄
72'
F. Leys ↔ M. Pisano
Deportivo Pasto
🟨
73'
Estiven Sarria
Chico
🔄
76'
E. Sarria ↔ D. A. Ramirez Raigosa
Chico
🔄
84'
J. Micolta Piedahita ↔ Y. Tolosa
Deportivo Pasto
🔄
84'
S. Cordoba ↔ E. Gomez
Deportivo Pasto
⚽
86'
A. Maya · Assist: J. Diaz
Chico
🔄
90'
A. Maya ↔ F. Cifuentes
Chico
🔄
90'
S. Mera ↔ J. Pimentel Betancourt
Chico

Chico vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 95.7%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.54
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
95.7%
1.36 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
2.00 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.54 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.7%
1.49 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.33 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Chico Win 47.9%
Draw 4.3%
Deportivo Pasto Win 47.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Chico1.01
Deportivo Pasto1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Chico Chico
WWDLW
22 GF / 50 GA
Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto
WLDWL
40 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
0.79
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.79
Average Goals Conceded
1.34
7
BTTS Yes
16
14
Over 2.5
15
2.96
Shots on Goal
3.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Chico Chico 28 matches
Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 32 matches
Chico Statistic Deportivo Pasto
7 Wins 13
4 Draws 6
17 Losses 13
22 Goals For 40
50 Goals Against 43
0.79 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.79 Avg Goals Conceded 1.34
7 BTTS Yes 16
20 Over 1.5 23
14 Over 2.5 15
6 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 10
16 Failed To Score 8
2.96 Shots On Goal 3.71
9.54 Total Shots 11.74
4.14 Corners 4.16
44.8% Ball Possession 52.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Deportivo Pasto's more proactive style and Chico's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Deportivo Pasto. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Deportivo Pasto carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 34 points while Chico sit 18 on 17, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Chico expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Deportivo Pasto in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportivo Pasto having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Chico Analysis

Chico approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 17 points from 19 matches. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 2 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 15:32 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Jairo Molina (4 goals), S. Mera (3 goals), Arlen Banguero (2 goals), with creative support from D. Ramírez (2 assists), Y. Cabrera (2 assists), E. Sarria (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Deportivo Pasto Analysis

Placed 3 with 34 points from 19 outings, Deportivo Pasto continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, while the 29:25 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Santiago Córdoba (5 goals), D. Chávez (3 goals), Jonathan Perlaza (2 goals), with creative support from D. Chávez (3 assists), E. Serje (2 assists), M. Gil (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Chico won 1 times, Deportivo Pasto won 8 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:23 from Chico's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
Predicted formations: Chico 4-1-4-1 / Deportivo Pasto 4-4-2
H2H summary: Chico wins 1, draws 6, Deportivo Pasto wins 8

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
D W D L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L L W W L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W W D L W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W D L L W
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
D D D D L
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W L W W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D L L W
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W W W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D D W W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L D L W D
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D W L L D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W W W D W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L W L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L L L D D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
D L W L W
18
Chico Home
19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
D W L L W
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W L L D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L L D D L
Post season qualification