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16.10.2026 22:00

Cerro vs Cerro Largo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cerro Win 68%
Draw 16.6%
Cerro Largo Win 15.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerro0.91
Cerro Largo1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerro Cerro
WWDLW
23 GF / 45 GA
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo
WLDWL
29 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
0.74
Average Goals Scored
0.94
1.45
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
13
BTTS Yes
13
12
Over 2.5
10
1.67
Shots on Goal
1.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerro Cerro 31 matches
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 31 matches
Cerro Statistic Cerro Largo
9 Wins 8
6 Draws 9
16 Losses 14
23 Goals For 29
45 Goals Against 36
0.74 Avg Goals Scored 0.94
1.45 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
13 BTTS Yes 13
19 Over 1.5 21
12 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 8
12 Failed To Score 12
1.67 Shots On Goal 1.33
4 Total Shots 3.33
1.67 Corners 1
20% Ball Possession 16.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Cerro Largo. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Cerro Largo arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Cerro Analysis

So far, Cerro have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 33 points from 31 matches. The record of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 16 defeats, together with a 23:45 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cerro Largo Analysis

Cerro Largo approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 33 points from 31 matches. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 9 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 29:36 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (84.6%)
Predicted formations: Cerro 4-3-3 / Cerro Largo 4-3-3

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 19 6 6 50:25 25 62
W D W W W
2 31 17 7 7 49:27 22 58
W W W L W
3 31 16 6 9 52:37 15 54
L D L W W
4 31 14 11 6 36:25 11 53
L L D W L
5 31 16 4 11 47:38 9 52
W W W D D
6 31 14 8 9 40:36 4 50
W W D D L
7 31 13 10 8 42:30 12 49
W W D L W
8 31 10 8 13 32:42 -10 38
L L L D D
9 31 10 7 14 41:42 -1 37
W L L L L
10 31 9 10 12 35:39 -4 37
D D W D D
11 31 8 11 12 28:36 -8 35
L W L W D
12 31 8 9 14 29:36 -7 33
L L L D L
13
Cerro Home
31 9 6 16 23:45 -22 33
L D L W W
14 31 8 7 16 29:42 -13 31
D L L L L
15 31 5 14 12 26:40 -14 29
W L D D L
16 31 8 4 19 27:46 -19 28
L W W L W
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